Nonstationary extreme precipitation in Brazil

Cortez, Bianca Nespoli; Pires, Gabrielle Ferreira; Ávila-Díaz, Alvaro; Fonseca, Humberto Paiva; Oliveira, Lais Rosa

doi:10.1080/02626667.2022.2075267

Cited by 10 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 85 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Assessment of the changes in precipitation characteristics is very important for GBHR, Rio de Janeiro state, which is one of the higher density populations, and diverse activities such as agricultural, environmental, and tourism, where changes in Pmax characteristics can critically affect the health of the region [43]. The changes in the Pmax trigger natural disasters such as floods, flash floods, or droughts [37,44] and the hydraulic and hydro-agricultural structures must be restructured to this new condition of Pmax.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term changes in precipitation in the eastern portion of the Guanabara Bay hydrographic region, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Abreu

Oliveira‐Júnior

Souza

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Guanabara Bay hydrographic region (GBHR) is a strategic area of Rio de Janeiro, with few studies on Climatology and on the annual maximum daily rainfall (Pmax). Detecting changes in Pmax is a prerequisite for a better understanding of the climate and developing adaptation and mitigation measures at a regional and local scale. Therefore, the aim of this study is to identify trends in Pmax through non-parametric tests in the GBHR region of Rio de Janeiro based on historical time series. Five rain gauges were selected with daily rainfall series due to long time series (ranging from 1939 to 2020) and with a maximum of 10% annual failures. The non-parametric tests (MK, modified MK and Pettitt) were applied to the rainfall temporal series. The series of Pmax were classified as random, independent, homogeneous and stationary. The Pmax were observed mostly between November and March. It is noteworthy that this identified period corresponds to the greater performance of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), convective rainfall and Frontal Systems (FS) in Rio de Janeiro. The results of MK test were coincident with Pettitt test. The modified MK test detected a trend in rain gauges where the Pettit test was no significative. The change points by Pettit test, in significative trend were 1995 and 1985, for Nova Friburgo and Cachoeiras de Macacu. The results obtained from the study are important for territorial planning, airport management, and for the socioeconomic interest of GBHR – Rio de Janeiro, mainly for COMPERJ (petrochemical complex) and landslide and flood areas.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term changes in precipitation in the eastern portion of the Guanabara Bay hydrographic region, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Abreu

Oliveira‐Júnior

Souza

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Six different interpolation techniques were evaluated: arithmetic averaging, thin plate spline, natural neighbor, inverse distance weighting, angular distance weighting, and ordinary point kriging. In general, the dataset shows a good performance in describing the weather station observations and is widely applied in hydrological and climatological studies in Brazil 31 , 32 , and also as the ground truth to GCMs/RCMs projections assessment and impact studies 33 , 34 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

CLIMBra - Climate Change Dataset for Brazil

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

General Circulation and Earth System Models are the most advanced tools for investigating climate responses to future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, playing the role of projecting the climate throughout the century. Nevertheless, climate projections are model-dependent and may show systematic biases, requiring a bias correction for any further application. Here, we provide a dataset based on an ensemble of 19 bias-corrected CMIP6 climate models projections for the Brazilian territory based on the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. We used the Quantile Delta Mapping approach to bias-correct daily time-series of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, solar net radiation, near-surface wind speed, and relative humidity. The bias-corrected dataset is available for both historical (1980–2013) and future (2015–2100) simulations at a 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution. Besides the gridded product, we provide area-averaged projections for 735 catchments included in the Catchments Attributes for Brazil (CABra) dataset. The dataset provides important variables commonly used in environmental and hydroclimatological studies, paving the way for the development of high-quality research on climate change impacts in Brazil.

show abstract

“…In this context, few studies have specifically evaluated future extreme precipitation patterns for Brazil. The study by Cortez et al (2022) indicated that daily extreme precipitation is expected to increase in at least 90% of the Brazilian territory. Chou et al (2014) reported an increase in total precipitation based on the increase in heavy precipitation for the southern region of Brazil.…”

Section: Rethinking Flood Control Measures In the Face Of Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Is It Time to Build an Ark? The Reality of Climate Change in One of the Worst Climate Tragedies in Brazil

Debone,

Tavella,

Colombo

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The article addresses the complex climatic situation faced by the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, which began on April 27, 2024, and extended for weeks. This unprecedented extreme weather event is yet another chapter in the global climate crisis. Initially, this rainfall seemed typical for the season. However, it quickly escalated into one of the worst climatic catastrophes in Brazil's history. In recent years, there has been a global increase in extreme weather events, including heavy precipitation, flooding, landslides, cyclones, and heatwaves, highlighting the ongoing climate crisis as one of the most serious threats we face today. In light of this, our study aims to elucidate the impact of climate change by examining one of Brazil's most severe climate disasters. We investigate the complex situation in Rio Grande do Sul, analyzing the ongoing climate crisis and projecting what can be expected in the near future.

show abstract

Nonstationary extreme precipitation in Brazil

Cited by 10 publications

References 85 publications

Long-term changes in precipitation in the eastern portion of the Guanabara Bay hydrographic region, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Long-term changes in precipitation in the eastern portion of the Guanabara Bay hydrographic region, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

CLIMBra - Climate Change Dataset for Brazil

Is It Time to Build an Ark? The Reality of Climate Change in One of the Worst Climate Tragedies in Brazil

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About