Non Stationary Analysis of Extreme Events

Cancelliere, Antonino

doi:10.1007/s11269-017-1724-4

Cited by 25 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…However, the assumption of stationary of hydrological variables is undermined by anthropogenic disturbances, natural climate change and low frequency, internal variability (Milly et al, 2008). There have been many studies that have adequately considered the non-stationarity characteristics of extreme variables when simulating them (Cancelliere, 2017;Razmi et al, 2017). Ye, Chen, et al (2013) claimed that using traditional methods to simulate flood series with significant trend can overestimate the magnitude of the design flood.…”

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confidence: 99%

Non‐stationary frequency analysis of extreme streamflow disturbance in a typical ecological function reserve of China under a changing climate

Liu

Yin

et al. 2021

Ecohydrology

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Extreme hydro-meteorological events occur more frequently with global warming, which have a great impact on ecology, environment and hydrology. Hydrometeorological variables often exhibit disturbances of non-stationary characteristics.In this paper, we take a typical ecological function reserve (Poyang Lake Basin) as an instance to study the trend and probability characters of extreme streamflow based on stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models. Time and large-scale climate factors such as Southern Oscillation (SO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), NINO3 SST (NINO3) and NINO3.4 SST (NINO3.4) are incorporated as covariates to establish non-stationary model. The main results

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Non‐stationary frequency analysis of extreme streamflow disturbance in a typical ecological function reserve of China under a changing climate

Liu

Yin

et al. 2021

Ecohydrology

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“…The extension of the return period concept to nonstationary conditions is discussed by several literature works; see, among others, Cancelliere (), Cooley (), Du et al (), Obeysekera and Salas (), Olsen, Lambert, and Haimes (), Read and Vogel (, ), Rootzén and Katz (), Salas and Obeysekera (), and Serinaldi and Kilsby (). Some practical implications of the findings in previous literature and estimation techniques for nonstationary processes are summarized and discussed in the recent review article by Salas, Obeysekera, and Vogel ().…”

Section: Extension Of the Return Period And Probability Of Failure Formulations To Nonstationary Or Time‐dependent Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

On return period and probability of failure in hydrology

Volpi

2019

WIREs Water

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The return period measures the rareness of extreme events such as floods and droughts that might cause huge damages to the society and the environment; hence, it lies at the heart of hydraulic design and risk assessment problems. Indeed, return period is a commonly applied probabilistic concept in the hydrologic literature, which has attracted renewed interest stimulated by the need of efficiently dealing with complex processes in a changing environment. In this study, the concept of return period and the related risk of failure are presented by making use of a general mathematical framework. It helps for a better understanding of the return period and risk of failure formulations that are commonly adopted in practical engineering applications. The framework can be further applied under more general conditions. In particular, the extension of the return period concept to nonstationary and time-dependent cases is discussed herein, by relaxing the hypotheses commonly (and sometimes implicitly) assumed that allows to derive simple analytic formulations.

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“…e estimated extreme precipitation changes with time and is known as "effective return level." However, how to apply the new methods to engineering hydrological design remains to be an open question [34,35].…”

Section: Frequency Analysis Of Px5d and Px10dmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Changes and Frequency Analysis of Multiday Extreme Precipitation in the Huai River Basin during 1960 to 2014

Yin

Pan

Yang

et al. 2019

Advances in Meteorology

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Floods and droughts are more closely related to the extreme precipitation over longer periods of time. The spatial and temporal changes and frequency analysis of 5-day and 10-day extreme precipitations (PX5D and PX10D) in the Huai River basin (HRB) are investigated by means of correlation analysis, trend and abrupt change analysis, EOF analysis, and hydrological frequency analysis based on the daily precipitation data from 1960 to 2014. The results indicate (1) PX5D and PX10D indices have a weak upward trend in HRB, and the weak upward trend may be due to the significant downward trend in the 21st century, (2) the multiday (5-day and 10-day) extreme precipitation is closely associated with flood/drought disasters in the HRB, and (3) for stations of nonstationary changes with significant upward trend after the abrupt change, if the whole extreme precipitation series are used for frequency analysis, the risk of future floods will be underestimated, and this effect is more pronounced for longer return periods.

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Non Stationary Analysis of Extreme Events

Cited by 25 publications

References 52 publications

Non‐stationary frequency analysis of extreme streamflow disturbance in a typical ecological function reserve of China under a changing climate

Non‐stationary frequency analysis of extreme streamflow disturbance in a typical ecological function reserve of China under a changing climate

On return period and probability of failure in hydrology

Spatiotemporal Changes and Frequency Analysis of Multiday Extreme Precipitation in the Huai River Basin during 1960 to 2014

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