Nexus of Agriculture, Gdp, Population and Climate Change: Case of Some Eurasian Countries and Turkey

Abstract

Climate has an important role in the life processes of living creatures economically, socially and biologically. It affects several sectors and is affected by several sectors. Climate events are known to have changed since the second millennium and today it stands out as a problem that humanity has to face. Climate change has to be evaluated together with the global warming phenomenon. The most important factor causing global warming is the CO2 concentration. This study examines the effects of variables including the share of the agricultural fields within total area, agricultural added value, GDP and population on the CO2 release within the scale of the Eurasian Region and Turkey. The study covers the period between 1993 and 2016 years. Econometric models like ADF unit square test, ARDL and VECM were used. According to the obtained results, the effect of population was determined to be greater than that of the other variables in both regions. All of the variables under study had an increasing effect on CO2 release in the long term in the Eurasian Region, while the share of the agricultural areas within total area and the GDP variables had an effect to reduce CO2 release. This different situation is directly related to the size of the agricultural production in the Eurasian Region and Turkey and to the awareness level of the people. As a result, awareness of the individuals as well as of the state rulers on environmental destruction or environmental cost in particular in all works is considered to be important. On the other hand, it is necessary to plan agricultural production system within an environmental dimension and this needs to become a state policy. However, when creating these policies, one should avoid practices causing any difficulty in meeting the food demand of the population or causing excessive increases in food prices, such as the results when agriculture was affected by the climate events. Otherwise, there may be undesired consequences like food deficiency and corresponding deterioration of the macroeconomic balances of countries.

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