New York City's Vulnerability to Coastal Flooding

Colle, Brian A.; Buonaiuto, Frank; Bowman, Malcolm J.; Wilson, R. E.; Flood, Roger D.; Hunter, Robert; Mintz, Alexander; Hill, Douglas

doi:10.1175/2007bams2401.1

Cited by 112 publications

(86 citation statements)

References 14 publications

(23 reference statements)

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“…We show that the surge level for NYC will likely increase due to the 28 change of storm climatology with a magnitude comparable to the projected sea-level rise (SLR), 29 based on some GCMs. The combined effects of storm climatology change and a 1-m SLR may 30 cause the current NYC 100-year surge flooding to occur every 3-20 years and the 500-year 31 flooding to occur every 25-240 years by the end of the century.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change

et al. 2012

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confidence: 99%

Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change

et al. 2012

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“…(Extratropical cyclones can also induce coastal flooding in NYC (8), although the flood magnitude is often smaller.) We estimate the current and future hurricane surge climatology for NYC following ref.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100

Lin

Kopp

Horton

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City's flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy's flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy's return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100.Hurricane Sandy | storm surge | sea level rise | climate change | New York City I n October of 2012, Hurricane Sandy flooded the US East Coast with extreme storm surges. At the Battery tide gauge in New York City (NYC), the storm surge reached 2.8 m; the storm tide, which includes also the astronomical tide, reached a record height of 3.44 m (the North American Vertical Datum of 1988). Estimating the frequency of Sandy-like flood events, including how it changes over time, provides critical information for coastal risk mitigation and climate adaptation. Previous studies have investigated the frequency of Hurricane Sandy under the historical climate (1-4). In this study, we focus on how the frequency of extreme floods induced by Sandy-like events varies in response to changes in the sea level (5) and storm activity (6, 7) due to climate change. In particular, we investigate (i) the influence of historical sea level rise in shaping the current flood hazard in NYC and (ii) the impact of projected future climate change and sea level rise on Sandy-like flood events.To compare flood events across time periods, we define the flood height as the peak water level during a storm relative to a baseline mean sea level (e.g., the mean sea level in 2000). Here we focus on the sea level components that vary with the climate and do not account for the effect of astronomical tide. Thus, we calculate the flood height as the sum of the peak storm surge and relative sea level (RSL; relative to the baseline). Then, for a given climate state, the return period (reciprocal of frequency) of floods of different heights can be estimated by combining (i) the storm frequency (assuming that the storms arrive as a Poisson process) and (ii) the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the flood height, which can be obtained by combining the CDF of the storm surge and the probability distribution function (PDF) of RSL (Methods). In such a framework, we integrate the estimated RSL PDF with modeled storm frequency and storm surge CDF (which, together, describe storm surge climatology) to estimate NYC's flood return periods from year 1800 to 2100.We consider storm surges induced by hurricanes/tropical cyclones. (Extratropical cyclones can also induce co...

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“…ADCIRC is a finite-element hydrodynamic model that has been validated and applied to simulate storm surges and make forecasts for various coastal regions (e.g., refs. [41][42][43][44]. It uses an unstructured grid with very fine resolution near the coast and much coarser resolution in the deep ocean.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

Reed

Mann

Emanuel

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States' Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850-1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970-2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the preanthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies. T ropical cyclones (TCs) and their associated storm surges are the costliest natural hazards to impact the U.S. Atlantic coast (1-3). For example, Hurricane Sandy caused an estimated $50 billion of damage and destroyed at least 650,000 houses in 2012, largely because of flooding from a 3-to 4-m storm surge and large waves (4). A storm surge is the anomalous rise of water above predicted astronomical tides, and its height is driven primarily by wind patterns, storm track, and coastal geomorphology forcing water onshore, with a smaller contribution from reduced atmospheric pressure allowing the ocean surface to rise. The financial cost and human impact of future storm surges will be controlled by the TC climate (frequency, intensity, size, duration, and location) and the rate of relative sea level rise (RSLR), which is the base water level upon which storm surges occur (5, 6). The flood height attained during a given storm is determined by combining storm surge, tides, and relative sea level. Therefore, as sea level rises through time, coastal inundation risk from storm surges rises as well. Thus, it is useful to conduct a longterm analysis of the impact of changing TC climates and RSLR on flood heights (7).The observational record of TCs in the North Atlantic Ocean basin spans A.D. 1851 to the present, but is too short (8) and potentially unreliable (9) to accurately assess long-term trends in TC frequency, intensity, and storm surge height, particularly for the largest events and for locations that rarely experience land...

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New York City's Vulnerability to Coastal Flooding

Cited by 112 publications

References 14 publications

Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change

Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change

Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

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