Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100

Lin, Ning; Kopp, Robert; Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1604386113

Cited by 167 publications

(149 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…These flood effects can be mapped for various return periods rather than the typical practice of mapping solely for the 100-or 500-year event. Finally, flood maps can also be developed based on projections of the future climate to quantify the impact of climate change and sea level rise (Kopp et al 2014;Lin et al 2016) on inland flooding.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating storm surge waves for structural vulnerability estimation and flood hazard mapping

Hatzikyriakou

Lin

2017

Nat Hazards

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Wave action during storm surge is a common cause of building damage and therefore a critical consideration when estimating structural vulnerability and mapping flood risk. Traditional depth-damage curves, however, relate building vulnerability solely to inundation depth and therefore neglect an important damage mechanism. Similarly, flood mapping studies typically emphasize expected inundation rather than wave conditions. In this study, we consider the impact of wave effects on vulnerability estimation and flood mapping using a pair of hydrodynamic models (ADCIRC ? SWAN and BOUSS1D) to simulate inland storm surge flooding. The models are used to simulate flooding in a heavily impacted coastal community (Ortley Beach, New Jersey) during Hurricane Sandy (2012) and to estimate inland hazard parameters characterizing inundation, wave and velocity effects. To quantify structural vulnerability, fragility curves are developed by statistically relating the simulated hazard parameters to surveyed building damage. The results indicate that dynamic hazard characteristics such as significant wave height are the dominant predictors of severe structural damage. The flood simulation is also used to map the variation of surge and wave effects in the community. Comparing this analysis to flood zones delineated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency in the community's Flood Insurance Rate Map reveals severe wave action and building damage in a significant portion of the community deemed least exposed to flood impact. It is suspected that this misrepresentation of risk resulted from overconfidence in the performance of the community's frontal dune under severe surge and wave actions.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating storm surge waves for structural vulnerability estimation and flood hazard mapping

Hatzikyriakou

Lin

2017

Nat Hazards

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“…This reasoning has a physical foundation based on observations of modern storm recurrence (e.g. Eagleson, ; Wilkinson et al ., ; Lin et al ., ).…”

Section: A Numerical Model Of Mudrock Accumulationmentioning

confidence: 97%

Stratigraphic completeness and resolution in an ancient mudrock succession

2018

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Mudrocks are the most common rock type at the Earth's surface, and they play a major role in informing current understanding of the palaeoenvironmental history of the planet. Their suitability for this purpose is at least partly underpinned by the assumed stratigraphic completeness of mudrock successions, and the ostensible fidelity with which they record temporal changes in palaeoenvironment. Mud does not necessarily accumulate, however, as a steady, near-continuous 'rain' under low energy conditions. Advective modes of mud transport and episodic, ephemeral accumulation have been shown to dominate in many ancient successions. This has implications for the completeness of these records and their suitability for highresolution sampling and analysis. In this study, a numerical model of mud accumulation, parameterized with data from the Lower Jurassic of Yorkshire (UK) is presented to explore completeness and resolution constraints on ancient epicontinental mudrock successions. Using this model, stratigraphic completeness of the analysed Yorkshire succession is estimated to be ca 13% and ca 98% at centennial and millennial timescales, respectively. The findings indicate that sub-millennial scale processes and events are unlikely to be accurately resolved, despite the largely unbioturbated and welllaminated nature of the succession. Epicontinental mudrock successions are a crucial archive of ancient environmental changes, and the findings of this study help to define a plausible upper limit on the resolution achievable in these successions. Even with high-resolution sampling, sub-millennial scale records of palaeoenvironmental change may not be attainable in ancient epicontinental mudrocks.

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“…First, we evaluate the sensitivity to assumptions on future emissions, which can cause large differences in sea level rise projections. Second, the choice of superimposing a single sea level rise percentile is analyzed, as for certain applications it may be more appropriate to incorporate the full probability distribution of projected sea level rise through mathematical convolution (Lin et al ., ; Lin and Shullman, ; Ruckert et al ., ). In the third sensitivity test, we examine the possible influence of changing storm characteristics due to climate change, for which there remains substantial uncertainty.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%