New spatial analyses of Australian wildfires highlight the need for new fire, resource, and conservation policies

Abstract

Extensive and recurrent severe wildfires present complex challenges for policy makers. This is highlighted by extensive wildfires around the globe, ranging from western North America and Europe to the Amazon and Arctic, and, most recently, the 2019–2020 fires in eastern Australia. In many jurisdictions, discussions after significant losses of life, property, and vegetation are sometimes conducted in the absence of nuanced debates about key aspects of climate, land, and resource management policy. Improved insights that have significant implications for policies and management can be derived from spatial and temporal analyses of fires. Here, we demonstrate the importance of such analyses using a case study of large-scale, recurrent severe wildfires over the past two decades in the Australian state of Victoria. We overlaid the location of current and past fires with ecosystem types, land use, and conservation values. Our analyses revealed 1) the large spatial extent of current fires, 2) the extensive and frequent reburning of recently and previously fire-damaged areas, 3) the magnitude of resource loss for industries such as timber and pulplog production, and 4) major impacts on high conservation value areas and biodiversity. These analyses contain evidence to support policy reforms that alter the mode of forest management, target the protection of key natural assets including unburnt areas, manage repeatedly damaged and potentially collapsed ecosystems, and expand the conservation estate. Our mapping approach should have applicability to other environments subject to large-scale fires, although the particular details of policy reforms would be jurisdiction, ecosystem, and context specific.

Fire, forests and fauna (The 2020 Krebs Lecture)

“…Calls for more prescribed burning of recently burned forests are misguided. Many forests, such as those in East Gippsland in north-eastern Victoria, have been subject to up to four fires in the past 25 years -when they should burn no more than once every 50-100 years or even longer (Lindenmayer and Taylor 2020). These ecosystems need less (not more) fire if they are to recover.…”

“…In summary, hazard reduction burning is useful but it needs to be conducted close to human infrastructure and conducted frequently (Gibbons et al 2012). Many ecosystems do not need more fire (particularly given their recent exposure to fire, including areas subject to several fires in the past 25 years (Lindenmayer and Taylor 2020)). Some ecosystems such as tall wet ash-type forests and rainforests should not be subject to any prescribed fire at all.…”

“…These new analyses also indicate that the logging-fire relationships quantified for wet eucalypt forests also extend to drier mixed species forests, demonstrating that the problem is more widespread that previously recognized. Moreover, in north-eastern New South Wales, there is evidence that Gondwanic relict rainforests (which are not logged) are particularly vulnerable to being badly burnt when adjacent areas have been subject to relatively recent logging (Lindenmayer et al 2020). That is, the effects of elevated fire severity have a spatial contagion dimension in which neighbouring areas can be damaged even though they are exempt from logging (Lindenmayer et al 2011).…”

“…Conversely, the notion that Australian ecosystems and their associated biodiversity will quickly return to pre-fire conditions because they are well adapted to fire is also overly optimistic in the context of the legacy effects of human land use and ongoing disturbance, with some species continuing to decline long after wildfires have occurred (Lindenmayer et al 2020a). Of course, old growth forests subject to stand-replacing wildfires may require centuries to recover (Lindenmayer and Taylor 2020).…”

“…This is critical for several reasons: (1) Old growth forest is where fire severity is lowest (Lindenmayer et al 2020b;Taylor et al 2014;Winoto-Lewin et al 2020;Zylstra 2018). (2) The old growth forest estate has declined dramatically in recent decades (Lindenmayer and Taylor 2020) and this will have major negative impacts on biodiversity, including after wildfire (through a scarcity of key biological legacies such as large burned trees). And, (3) Old growth is where the most carbon is stored in forest landscapes (Keith et al 2009) and thus where efforts to tackle climate change will be most effective.…”