New risk prediction model of coronary heart disease in participants with and without diabetes: Assessments of the Framingham risk and Suita scores in 3-year longitudinal database in a Japanese population

Abstract

The Framingham Risk Score (FRS) has been reported to predict coronary heart disease (CHD), but its assessment has been unsuccessful in Asian population. We aimed to assess FRS and Suita score (a Japanese CHD prediction model) in a Japanese nation-wide annual health check program, participants aged 40–79 years were followed up longitudinally from 2008 to 2011. Of 35,379 participants analyzed, 1,234 had new-onset CHD. New-onset CHD was observed in diabetic men [6.00%], non-diabetic men [3.96%], diabetic women [5.51%], and non-diabetic women [2.86%], respectively. Area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for CHD prediction were consistently low in Suita score (TC), FRS (TC) and NCEP-ATPIII FRS (TC), suggesting that these scores have only a limited power. ROC, net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA) and Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test did not show clear differences between Suita score (TC) and FRS (TC). New models combining waist circumference ≥85 cm in men or proteinuria ≥1+ in women to Suita score (TC) was superior in diabetic men and women. New models could be useful to predict 3-year risk of CHD at least in Japanese population especially in diabetic population.

Regional Variations of Insulin Secretion and Insulin Sensitivity in Japanese Participants With Normal Glucose Tolerance

“…This observational retrospective cohort study included an analysis in the Kokuho Database (KDB) which includes data form Japanese National Health Insurance and the data obtained during annual specific health checkups according to “The Specific Health Check and Guidance in Japan” ( 10 , 11 ). Of the 47 regions (prefectures) in Japan, we selected four distinct regions based on the food environment ( 12 ) and structure of non-communicable diseases ( 13 ): Fukushima, Nagano, Tokushima, and Okinawa.…”

“…The procedures for the anthropometric and biochemical measurements have been described previously ( 11 ). Briefly, trained staff measured height, body weight, waist circumference, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP) using a standard sphygmomanometer or an automated device on the right arm after resting for 5 min in a seated position.…”

Promoting analysis of real-world data: Prospects for preventive cardiology in Japan

“…The survey is conducted annually (P5) by mail or telephone. The Suita Cardiovascular Disease Score, which predicts the probability of developing coronary artery disease and stroke within 10 years, was developed based on data tracking the incidence of coronary artery disease and stroke through December 2013 (29).…”

Higher baseline uric acid concentration is associated with non-attainment of optimal blood pressure

“…This study was conducted as a part of the ongoing "Research on the Positioning of Chronic Kidney Disease in Specific Health Check and Guidance in Japan (SHCG)" project [18,19]. Of the 47 prefectural governments in Japan, 27 agreed to participate in this study.…”

“…Of the 47 prefectural governments in Japan, 27 agreed to participate in this study. SHCG data recorded between 2008 and 2010 were sent to and verified by the independent data center, the non-profit organization Japan Clinical Support Unit (Tokyo, Japan) [18,19].…”