New decision support system based on operational risk assessment to improve aircraft operability

Arnáiz, Aitor; Ferreiro, Susana; Buderath, Matthias

doi:10.1243/1748006xjrr282

Cited by 9 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Markov chains and BNs only handle probabilistic uncertainty whereas the study of works dealing with the prognoses of components also shows that these prognoses can also provide data containing epistemic uncertainty about the predictions of RULs or failures [4,14,22,32]. The Dempster Shafer Theory (DST), also known as theory of evidence, is a mathematical framework for the representation of the epistemic uncertainty [28].…”

Section: Theoretical Elementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…. The second kind of data consists of an interval the local prognosis assesses at t 0 noted [RUL min , RUL max ] in which the real RUL is with the given probability α [4,12,14,32]. Without any other indication about the distribution of the RUL, three situations are considered.…”

Section: Local Prognosesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Those studies consider different kinds of components such as ballbearings [4,12], gear trains [10,13], braking systems [14], batteries [7,8,15], gas turbines [16], etc., but also structural parts to predict crack growth [17,18]. Some studies aim at more generic approaches However, the distributions of RULs or of the degradations after given periods of use are not always identified but works dealing with prognostics of components often provide identifications of intervals for the assessed RULs or degradations [4,14,32]. These intervals introduce uncertainty between two possibilities: the degradation is under the failure threshold, the degradation is over the failure threshold.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment method of the multicomponent systems future ability to achieve productive tasks from local prognoses

González

Desforges

Archimède

2018

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

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Conditioned-based maintenance and prognostics and health management enable to optimize maintenance by scheduling the necessary repairs and replacements of technical system components according to their present and future health states. The assessment of future health states is the prognostics and health management keystone. Many technical production systems are made of numerous components implementing their functions. A method to assess the ability of multicomponent systems to carry out future production tasks is proposed to provide decision supports for production and maintenance planning for a better compromise between their objectives. It is based on components prognoses. To handle inherent uncertainties of these prognoses, the method is based on the Dempster Shafer theory and Bayesian networks inferences. Local prognoses are categorized and transformed to be compliant to Dempster Shafer theory. Patterns of systems are identified for which inferences are defined. The patterns are then used to model systems and to assess their abilities to achieve future tasks. An identification of components that should first undergo maintenance is proposed. An example implementing a fictitious complex systems is presented to show how the provided decision supports can be used for production and maintenance planning purposes.

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Section: Theoretical Elementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Local Prognosesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment method of the multicomponent systems future ability to achieve productive tasks from local prognoses

González

Desforges

Archimède

2018

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

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“…Other works also consider the production management system such as the ones presented in [1,9] that propose decision supports based on the health assessment of the systems. They requires the assessment of the risk that the systems will fail in fulfilling the operations the production planning assigns to them.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A prognostic function for complex systems to support production and maintenance co-operative planning based on an extension of object oriented Bayesian networks

Desforges

Divart

Archimde

2017

Computers in Industry

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The high costs of complex systems lead companies to improve their efficiency. This improvement can particularly be achieved by reducing their downtimes because of failures or for maintenance purposes. This reduction is the main goal of Condition-Based Maintenance and of Prognostics and Health Management. Both those maintenance policies need to install appropriate sensors and data processes not only to assess the current health of their critical components but also their future health. These future health assessments, also called prognostics, produce the Remaining Useful Life of the components associated to imprecision quantifications. In the case of complex systems where components are numerous, the matter is to assess the health of whole systems from the prognostics of their components (the local prognostics). In this paper, we propose a generic function that assesses the future availability of complex systems from their local prognostics (the prognostics of their components) by using inferences rules. The results of this function can then be used as decision support indicators for planning productive and maintenance tasks. This function exploits a proposed extension for Object Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) used to model the complex system in order to assess the probabilities of failure of components, functions and subsystems. The modeling of the complex system is required and it is presented as well as modeling transformations to tackle some OOBN limitations. Then, the computing inference rules used to define the future availability of complex systems are presented. The extension added to OOBN consists in indicating the components that should first be maintained to improve the availabilities of the functions and subsystems in order to provide a second kind of decision support indicators for maintenance. A fictitious multi-component system bringing together most of the structures encountered in complex systems is modeled and the results obtained from the application of the proposed generic function are presented as well as ways that production and maintenance planning can used the computed indicators. Then we show how the proposed generic prognostic function can be used to predict propagations of failures and their effects on the functioning of functions and subsystems.

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“…Recently, Arnaiz proposed a new decision support system based on operational risk assessment to improve aircraft operability [4]. Vinnem proposed a generalized methodology for operational risk analysis of offshore installations [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Operational Reliability Assessment of Compressor Gearboxes with Normalized Lifting Wavelet Entropy from Condition Monitoring Information

Xiao-li

Wang

Cao

et al. 2015

Entropy

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Classical reliability assessment methods have predominantly focused on probability and statistical theories, which are insufficient in assessing the operational reliability of individual mechanical equipment with time-varying characteristics. A new approach to assess machinery operational reliability with normalized lifting wavelet entropy from condition monitoring information is proposed, which is different from classical reliability assessment methods depending on probability and statistics analysis. The machinery vibration signals with time-varying operational characteristics are firstly decomposed and reconstructed by means of a lifting wavelet package transform. The relative energy of every reconstructed signal is computed as an energy percentage of the reconstructed signal in the whole signal energy. Moreover, a normalized lifting wavelet entropy is defined by the relative energy to reveal the machinery operational uncertainty. Finally, operational reliability degree is defined by the quantitative value obtained by the normalized lifting wavelet entropy belonging to the range of [0,1]. The proposed method is applied in the operational reliability assessment of the gearbox in an oxy-generator compressor to validate the effectiveness.

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New decision support system based on operational risk assessment to improve aircraft operability

Cited by 9 publications

References 8 publications

Assessment method of the multicomponent systems future ability to achieve productive tasks from local prognoses

Assessment method of the multicomponent systems future ability to achieve productive tasks from local prognoses

A prognostic function for complex systems to support production and maintenance co-operative planning based on an extension of object oriented Bayesian networks

Operational Reliability Assessment of Compressor Gearboxes with Normalized Lifting Wavelet Entropy from Condition Monitoring Information

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