#NeverTrump: Why Republican members of Congress refused to support their party’s nominee in the 2016 presidential election

Abstract

In an election characterized by countless headlines, the refusal of Republicans to support their party's nominee was a constant topic of discussion in 2016. Our paper looks to explain why Republican members of Congress joined the socalled #NeverTrump movement. In the first part, we document the varied-and often contradictory-explanations of the #NeverTrump movement offered by journalists, pundits, and politicians during the campaign. We then categorize these popular explanations into four theoretical categories: policy preferences, identity, electoral motivations, and establishment dynamics. In the second part, we test the varied claims. We believe two findings stand out and have broader implications for American politics. First, despite the popular belief that members of Congress are single-minded in their pursuit of reelection, we found that a lawmaker's religion and sex-both in the identity category-had the largest effects on the decision to join the #NeverTrump movement. Second, the results show that establishment Republicans were more likely to support Donald Trump's candidacy. Notably, the direction of this effect is inconsistent with popular explanations of the #NeverTrump movement but consistent with a range of academic studies.

Adversaries or Allies? Donald Trump’s Republican Support in Congress

“…Notably, this contradicts the suggestion from some in the media that Trump’s presidency represents a war on the party’s establishment (CNN 2017; Washington Post 2017). Both results are consistent with the finding that conservative and establishment Republicans were more likely to endorse Trump in the 2016 campaign (Johnson, McCray, and Ragusa 2018).…”

“…Because the model controls for a range of factors, gender seems to be a salient dimension vis-à-vis Trump’s presidency. We note that this effect is consistent with the finding that female Republicans were more likely to join the #NeverTrump movement in the 2016 campaign (Johnson, McCray, and Ragusa 2018). We do not find a significant effect on the Mormon variable, however.…”

“…Although we are not the first to note that gender is a predictor of legislative roll-call behavior, prior studies typically examine this pattern with a focus on gendered policies (Thomas 1991; MacDonald and O’Brien 2011). We believe the current climate requires us to pay attention to this variable writ large, especially given that Republican female legislators were also less likely to endorse Trump during the 2016 election (Johnson, McCray, and Ragusa 2018). However, we once again urge caution when considering these results and reiterate that further research is needed.…”

“…Second, because the establishment’s fate is most closely tied to the success (or failure) of their party’s standard-bearer (Cohen et al 2008), it stands to reason that those at the “core” of the party would support the president the most given that their fate is tied to his fate (Stonecash 2013). And third, a recent paper by Johnson, McCray, and Ragusa (2018) found that establishment Republicans were more likely to endorse Trump in the 2016 election. Due to this emerging evidence, we believe the establishment is more—not less—likely to back Trump’s legislative positions.…”

Foreign policy free agents: how lawmakers and coalitions on the political margins help set boundaries for US foreign policy

“…Noel ( 2016 ) turned this new interpretation into a compromise dimension, arguing that the second dimension captures the degree to which members of congress favor their ideology over the procedural demands of their party. Johnson, McCrary, and Ragusa ( 2018 ) also use second-dimension DW-NOMINATE scores to try and capture a populist or establishment vs. anti-establishment divide in the Republican Party. In his use of the second dimension to examine partisan warfare, Theriault ( 2013 ) found that negative scores seem to indicate members who are more anti-establishment and less willing to compromise.…”