Adversaries or Allies? Donald Trump’s Republican Support in Congress

Abstract

Donald Trump’s first year in office received unprecedented media coverage, with many wondering whether congressional Republicans were “adversaries” or “allies” of the president’s legislative positions. We explore this issue from two vantage points. First, we place Trump’s presidency in historical context by forecasting his Republican support with data from 1969 to 2016. We find that Republicans supported Trump’s legislative positions in 2017 at levels consistent with expectations, contrary to the views of some. Second, we explore the factors that explain why Republican lawmakers supported or opposed their party’s president. We find that conservative and establishment Republicans were more likely to support Trump, contrary to some claims, while female Republicans and those representing affluent, non-white districts were more likely to oppose Trump. We conclude by discussing the broader implications of these results, including the role of identity in contemporary American politics and the possible realignment of the GOP.

Searching for green elephants and other mythical creatures during the Trump years: Partisanship and congressional voting on environmental legislation

“…This becomes increasingly interesting when one considers the politics of the Trump era (Barber & Pope, 2019b; Guild & Reiger, 2021; Seib, 2020) and the moves by his administration to undermine environmental regulations through the administrative presidency (Thompson et al, 2020). Notably, the few legislative successes under Trump relied heavily on alignment between the White House and Congressional Republicans (Amira et al, 2019; Smith, 2021). Thus, one must wonder if the party's stance on the environment was aligned with Trump's own policy preferences, then why are there so many voting anomalies by Republicans, in both the House and Senate, in which they sided with the Democratic majority to shoot down Republican‐sponsored legislation that advanced the president's environmental agenda?…”

“…For their part, President Trump and his Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) administrators, Scott Pruitt and Andrew Wheeler, used the tools of the administrative presidency to dismantle, delay, and impede many aspects of the federal environmental regulatory scheme, to the chagrin of environmentalists (Konisky & Woods, 2018; Thompson et al, 2020). Key allies in this were Congressional Republicans, who used legislative tools to further limit federal agencies' authorities or funding, and in a few cases, also passed “Resolutions of Disapproval” to overturn administrative rules made under the Obama administration (see e.g., Amira et al, 2019; Beitsch, 2020). Although Republicans displayed antipathy toward environmental regulations for decades, there remains a legacy of environmental conservation and preservation in the party (e.g., Theodore Roosevelt's creation of national parks, Richard Nixon's founding of EPA), and some Republicans still believe there is an important role for the federal government in protecting natural resources (e.g., Roosevelt Conservation Caucus) (Karol, 2019; McGrory Klyza & Sousa, 2013).…”

Partisan Intensity in Congress: Evidence from Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court Nomination

“…Our contrasting results raise even more questions for researchers, such as how individual cases of partisan fighting aggregate into broader measures, how Senators have adapted their social media strategies over time, and how President Trump’s election changed legislators’ willingness to pursue partisanship. Indeed, the gender dynamics during Kavanaugh’s confirmation echo a broader trend in how partisanship and gender strongly affects support for President Trump in Congress and electorally (e.g., Amira et al 2019; Setzler and Yanus 2018; Valentino, Wayne, and Oceno 2018). As research in this area progresses, I expect we will see similar results to the ones I find on other topics and in other institutional settings such as committee hearings and state legislatures.…”

Liberal and anti-establishment: An exploration of the political ideologies of American tech workers

“…In contrast, the second dimension is more ambiguous as it takes on different meanings at different times, such as the conflict around racial and civil rights issues and, later, ‘cultural war’ issues more broadly (Hare & Poole, 2014; Poole & Rosenthal, 2007). In this day and age, the second dimension has come to represent anti-establishment behavior, specifically a willingness of some US lawmakers to think and act independently (Amira et al, 2019; Hinich et al, 2010; Johnson et al, 2018; Noel, 2016). Simply put, the second dimension taps into anti-establishment voting records (Carroll et al, 2009; Hinich et al, 2010; D.…”