Near-Surface Wind-Speed Stilling in Alaska during 1984-2016 and Its Impact on the Sustainability of Wind Power

Kramm, Gerhard; Mölders, Nicole; Cooney, John; Dlugi, R.

doi:10.4236/jpee.2019.77006

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…The stilling winds may also hinder air pollution dispersion, leading to the accumulation of harmful pollutants near emission sources (Cai et al., 2017). In addition, as wind power is one of the fastest‐growing renewable energy sources (Dincer, 2011; Kramm et al., 2019), the decline of NWS would likely exert a major impact on the electricity industry. Therefore, it is important to improve our understanding of the past and future changes in NWS.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Terrestrial Stilling Projected to Continue in the Northern Hemisphere Mid‐Latitudes

et al. 2022

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The near‐surface wind speed over land has declined in recent decades, a trend known as terrestrial stilling (TS). However, recent studies have indicated a reversal of the TS during the last decade, triggering renovated interest in the future wind speed changes. This study examines the TS over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) land areas and explores its future changes under Model Inter‐comparison Projection Phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. The results show that the NH mid‐latitude TS will likely continue during the whole 21st century under mid‐to‐high greenhouse warmings (SSPs‐245, 370, and 585). Nevertheless, if the world reduces carbon emissions substantially (SSP‐126), the TS will be interrupted and likely reversed after the mid‐21st century. The projected TS shows seasonal differences, with the largest (smallest) decreasing trends of wind speed in boreal summer (winter). Moreover, the TS reversal during the last decade is suggested as a multi‐decadal fluctuation related to the Pacific and Atlantic multi‐decadal oscillations. In addition, this study proposes that increased upper‐air warming in the future climate could play a key role in reducing the NH mid‐latitude surface wind speed. The continuing TS provides strong implications for the near‐surface environment and wind energy development, particularly for countries in the NH mid‐latitudes.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Terrestrial Stilling Projected to Continue in the Northern Hemisphere Mid‐Latitudes

et al. 2022

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“…[5] and [6] constructed station-based climatologies of near-surface winds over parts of Canada, with particular attention to the homogenization issue in the latter study. More recently, [7] evaluated observations of wind from 19 stations over Alaska with an application to wind energy generation. Although [7] evaluated temporal changes in wind speed at the observing stations, heterogeneities in the station record were not addressed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More recently, [7] evaluated observations of wind from 19 stations over Alaska with an application to wind energy generation. Although [7] evaluated temporal changes in wind speed at the observing stations, heterogeneities in the station record were not addressed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wind Climatology for Alaska: Historical and Future

Redilla¹,

Pearl²,

Bieniek³

et al. 2019

ACS

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Wind is a climate variable with major impacts on humans, ecosystems and infrastructure, especially in coastal regions with cold climates. Climate-related changes in high-wind events therefore have major implications for high-latitude residents, yet there has heretofore been no systematic evaluation of such changes in a framework spanning historical and future timeframes. In this study, hourly winds from surface station reports and from dynamical downscaling of winds simulated by two different global climate models have been synthesized into historical and future wind climatologies for Alaska. Quantile mapping procedures are used to calibrate wind simulations driven by an atmospheric reanalysis, and the calibrated winds are then used to bias-adjust the full distributions of historical and future winds downscaled from the global climate models. In the resulting climatologies, winds are generally stronger at coastal and offshore (island) locations than at interior sites, where calm conditions are frequent in winter. The season of peak wind speed varies from winter in the coastal and offshore locations to summer in interior areas. High-wind events determined from the hourly data are most frequent during winter at coastal locations. Projected changes for the late 21 st century are statistically significant at many locations, and they show a qualitatively similar seasonality in the output from the two models: an increase of mean wind speeds in the cold season and a decrease of mean wind speeds in the warm season. High-wind events are projected by both models to become more frequent in the northern and western Alaska coastal regions, which are precisely the regions in which the protective sea ice cover has decreased (and is projected to decrease further), pointing to increased risks of coastal flooding and erosion.

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“…The stilling air also hinders air pollution dispersion, promoting the accumulation of harmful pollutants near emission sources [19][20] . Moreover, as wind power is one of the fastest-growing renewable energy sources and provides an increasing share of electricity [21][22] , declining wind speed is likely to exert major impacts on the energy industry. Therefore, it is important to improve our understanding of the past and future NWS changes.…”

Section: Mainmentioning

confidence: 99%

Terrestrial stilling will continue during the 21st century

Chen

Deng

Azorín-Molina

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The near-surface wind speed over land has declined in recent decades, a trend known as terrestrial stilling (TS)1-2. However, recent studies have indicated a reversal of the TS in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the last decade3-6, triggering renovated interest in the wind speed changes. Here we show that the TS in the NH mid-latitudes will continue in all seasons throughout the 21st century, especially in summer. The recent reversal of TS is most likely a multi-decadal fluctuation related to the Pacific and Atlantic climate variations, rather than a secular trend. A new paradigm of the future TS is further proposed, which is related to an intensified subsidence inversion over the mid-latitudes, caused by enhanced tropical and subtropical convections. This study reveals the important role of global warming in reducing the near-surface wind speed on long time scales. The continuing TS means a long-term strategy for wind energy production needs to be developed, particularly for the NH mid-latitude countries.

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Near-Surface Wind-Speed Stilling in Alaska during 1984-2016 and Its Impact on the Sustainability of Wind Power

Cited by 6 publications

References 70 publications

Terrestrial Stilling Projected to Continue in the Northern Hemisphere Mid‐Latitudes

Terrestrial Stilling Projected to Continue in the Northern Hemisphere Mid‐Latitudes

Wind Climatology for Alaska: Historical and Future

Terrestrial stilling will continue during the 21st century

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