Near-Real-Time Loss Estimates for Future Italian Earthquakes Based on the M6.9 Irpinia Example

Wyss, Max; Rosset, Philippe

doi:10.3390/geosciences10050165

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…In calculations of population and economic losses, no earthquake simulation would enable the results to be verified, as in the case of [79]. This means that the results of the calculation presented in this paper are only theoretically reliable.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Impact of Urbanization on Seismic Risk: A Study Based on Remote Sensing Data

Zhang

2022

Sustainability

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The management of seismic risk is an important aspect of social development. However, urbanization has led to an increase in disaster-bearing bodies, making it more difficult to reduce seismic risk. To understand the changes in seismic risk associated with urbanization and then adjust the risk management strategy, remote-sensing technology is necessary. By identifying the types of earthquake-bearing bodies, it is possible to estimate the seismic risk and then determine the changes. For this purpose, this study proposes a set of algorithms that combine deep-learning models with object-oriented image classification and extract building information using multisource remote sensing data. Following this, the area of the building is estimated, the vulnerability is determined, and, lastly, the economic and social impacts of an earthquake are determined based on the corresponding ground motion level and fragility function. Our study contributes to the understanding of changes in seismic risk caused by urbanization processes and offers a practical reference for updating seismic risk management, as well as a methodological framework to evaluate the effectiveness of seismic policies. Experimental results indicate that the proposed model is capable of effectively capturing buildings’ information. Through verification, the overall accuracy of the classification of vulnerability types reaches 86.77%. Furthermore, this study calculates social and economic losses of the core area of Tianjin Baodi District in 2011, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2021, obtaining changes in seismic risk in the study area. The result shows that for rare earthquakes at night, although the death rate decreased from 2.29% to 0.66%, the possible death toll seems unchanged, due to the increase in population.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Impact of Urbanization on Seismic Risk: A Study Based on Remote Sensing Data

Zhang

2022

Sustainability

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“…However, the choices made for the reconstruction did not depend only on the geological assessment of the territory and therefore on the indications given by the microzoning maps, but also on the urban and socio-economic context. Nevertheless, there has not been a socio-economic redevelopment policy for the entire territory which, despite the settlement of some important factories, is currently suffering from unemployment and depopulation [45][46][47][48][49].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Photographic Reportage on the Rebuilding after the Irpinia-Basilicata 1980 Earthquake (Southern Italy)

et al. 2020

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This paper aims to present, through a photographic reportage, the current state of rebuilding of the most devastated villages by the earthquake that hit the Southern Italy on 23 November 1980, in Irpinia-Basilicata. The earthquake was characterized by magnitude Ml = 6.9 and epicentral intensity I0 = X MCS. It was felt throughout Italy with the epicenter in the Southern Apennines, between the regions of Campania and Basilicata that were the most damaged areas. About 800 localities were serious damaged; 7,500 houses were completely destroyed and 27,500 seriously damaged. The photographic survey has been done in 23 towns during the last five years: Castelnuovo di Conza, Conza della Campania, Laviano, Lioni, Santomenna, Sant’Angelo dei Lombardi, Balvano, Caposele, Calabritto and the hamlet of Quaglietta, San Mango sul Calore, San Michele di Serino, Pescopagano, Guardia dei Lombardi, Torella dei Lombardi, Colliano, Romagnano al Monte, Salvitelle, Senerchia, Teora, Bisaccia, Calitri and Avellino. Forty years after the 1980 earthquake, the photographs show villages almost completely rebuilt with modern techniques where reinforced concrete prevails. Only in few instances, the reconstruction was carried out trying to recover the pre-existing building heritage, without changing the original urban planning, or modifying it. We argue that this photography collection allows to assess the real understanding of the geological information for urban planning after a major destructive seismic event. Even more than this, documenting the rebuilding process in a large epicentral area reveals the human legacy to the natural landscape, and our ability, or failure, to properly interpret the environmental fate of a site.

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“…MODIS scans the whole globe, while ABI scans only America. The number of samples and pixel size are very different [46]. The ABI/GOES and MODIS/AQUA have different SPR and TMR, affecting the values of the calculated LST anomalies.…”

Section: Statistical Analysis Of Lst Anomalies and Earthquakes Correl...mentioning

confidence: 99%

First Results on the Systematic Search of Land Surface Temperature Anomalies as Earthquakes Precursors

et al. 2023

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Every year, earthquakes cause thousands of casualties and high economic losses. For example, in the time frame from 1998 to 2018, the total number of casualties due to earthquakes was larger than 846 thousand people, and the recorded economic losses were about USD 661 billion. At present, there are no earthquake precursors that can be used to trigger a warning. However, some studies have analyzed land surface temperature (LST) anomalies as a potential earthquake precursor. In this study, a large database of global LST data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and AQUA satellites during the whole year 2020 has been used to study the LST anomalies in the areas affected by earthquakes. A total of 1350 earthquakes with a magnitude larger than M4 were analyzed. Two methods widely used in the literature have been used to detect LST anomalies in the detrended LST time series: the interquartile (IQT) method and the standard deviation (STD). To the authors’ knowledge, it is the first time that the confusion matrix (CM), the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and some other figures of merit (FoM) are used to assess and optimize the performance of the methods, and to select the optimum combination that could be used as a proxy for their occurrence. A positive anomaly was found a few days before the studied earthquakes, followed by the LST decrease after the event. Further studies over larger regions and more extended periods will be needed to consolidate these encouraging results.

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Near-Real-Time Loss Estimates for Future Italian Earthquakes Based on the M6.9 Irpinia Example

Cited by 7 publications

References 18 publications

Impact of Urbanization on Seismic Risk: A Study Based on Remote Sensing Data

Impact of Urbanization on Seismic Risk: A Study Based on Remote Sensing Data

Photographic Reportage on the Rebuilding after the Irpinia-Basilicata 1980 Earthquake (Southern Italy)

First Results on the Systematic Search of Land Surface Temperature Anomalies as Earthquakes Precursors

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