We propose a method to calculate damage and human losses for cities in the developing world by averaging over an entire city, or its administrative districts. Bucharest, Romania, serves as an example. First, we modeled this city as located at a single coordinate point. We transformed the census information on building types, ages and height into EMS-98 vulnerability classes and distribute the population into them. We assumed a seismic load of MSK [Formula: see text] (M7.4 1977 Vrancea earthquake). Validating our model by comparison with casualties reported in 1977, we find differences of 20% to 30%. We reduced these errors to about 4%, by adjusting the distribution of building types into vulnerability classes, based on their performance in the 1977 earthquake. Calibrations of this type will be necessary for most developing countries. In a second step, we modeled Bucharest with six districts, in which the distribution of people into building types and the average soil conditions are known. This is our preferred model. We also calculated the soil properties that would be estimated from topography, if microzonation would not be available. The agreement was satisfactory. We propose this method to model important cities in earthquake prone areas of the developing world.
Recent destructive earthquakes have clearly shown that near-surface geological conditions play a major role in the level of ground shaking in urban areas. In Canada, Montreal is ranked second for seismic risk after Vancouver considering its population and regional seismic hazard. The city is largely built on recent unconsolidated marine and river deposits and most of its infrastructure is old and deteriorated. A seismic risk project that includes a combined methodology for site effects zoning in large cities, using microtremor measurements (H/V method) coupled with 1D numerical modelling (SHAKE91), has been initiated. The experimental approach gives good estimates of the fundamental frequency of soft deposits, while the numerical approach provides good estimates of the soil response in terms of amplification factor related to frequency. Main mechanical properties of soft soils were compiled from various data available, and a sample of input rock motions from real and synthetic earthquakes was used to compute soil response. The influence of marine clays on soil response is significant and is well correlated with thickness of these deposits. PGA amplification factors range from 2 to 4 at frequencies from 2 to 7 Hz, with some occasional larger values. The results demonstrate that the methodology used for our study is both fast and efficient to determine the influence of soft soils in urban environments. Such studies are essential for the effective deployment of seismic instrumentation, land-use planning and seismic mitigation.
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