Near future (2016-40) summer precipitation changes over China as projected by a regional climate model (RCM) under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario: Comparison between RCM downscaling and the driving GCM

Zou, Liwei; Zhou, Tianjun

doi:10.1007/s00376-013-2209-x

Cited by 92 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…WRF downscaling successfully eliminates this overestimation and faithfully reproduces the precipitation center in the southeast China. These are consistent with some previous studies [Gao et al, 2001[Gao et al, , 2008Zou and Zhou, 2013]. In addition, WRF downscaling generally simulates more reliable spatial distributions of total precipitation in China and four subregions with higher spatial pattern correlations and closer magnitude (Table 2).…”

Section: 1002/2015jd023275supporting

confidence: 91%

“…They revealed that CCLM was able to reasonably capture the climate features, but total precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and east Indonesia had a pronounced wet bias. Zou and Zhou [2013] studied the results that used the Flexible Global OceanAtmosphere-Land System model, grid point version 2 (FGOALS-g2) downscaled by RegCM3. They revealed that RegCM3 added value with respect to FGOALS-g2 in simulating the spatial patterns of the summer extreme precipitation over China for the present-day climate, and RegCM3 projected much stronger amplitude of extreme precipitation changes than FGOALS-g2 did.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…They are described in detail in Frich et al [2002] and Zou and Zhou [2013], including extreme precipitation amount (R95p), extreme precipitation percentage (R95pT), extreme precipitation frequency (R95pF), simple daily intensity (SDII), wet-day frequency (WDF), and consecutive wet days (CWD).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of precipitation over China

2015

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This study assesses present-day and future precipitation changes over China by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.5.1. The WRF model was driven by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with the Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics component (GFDL-ESM2G) output over China at the resolution of 30 km for the present day and near future (2031)(2032)(2033)(2034)(2035)(2036)(2037)(2038)(2039)(2040)(2041)(2042)(2043)(2044)(2045)(2046)(2047)(2048)(2049)(2050) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. The results demonstrate that with improved resolution and better representation of finer-scale physical process, dynamical downscaling adds value to the regional precipitation simulation. WRF downscaling generally simulates more reliable spatial distributions of total precipitation and extreme precipitation in China with higher spatial pattern correlations and closer magnitude. It is able to successfully eliminate the artificial precipitation maximum area simulated by GFDL-ESM2G over the west of the Sichuan Basin, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau in both summer and winter. Besides, the regional annual cycle and frequencies of precipitation intensity are also well depicted by WRF. In the future projections, under the RCP4.5 scenario, both models project that summer precipitation over most parts of China will increase, especially in western and northern China, and that precipitation over some southern regions is projected to decrease. The projected increase of future extreme precipitation makes great contributions to the total precipitation increase. In southern regions, the projected larger extreme precipitation amounts accompanied with fewer extreme precipitation frequencies suggest that future daily extreme precipitation intensity is likely to increase in these regions.

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Section: 1002/2015jd023275supporting

confidence: 91%

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confidence: 99%

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Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of precipitation over China

2015

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“…Recently, many studies have analyzed regional climate using RCMs forced by GCM scenarios, which contain higher spatial resolutions and comprehensive physical schemes (Leung et al 2003;Wang et al 2004;Solomon et al 2007;Nikulin et al 2011;Zou and Zhou 2013). Nikulin et al (2011) projected future climate and assessed projected extremes using RCM forced by multi-GCM.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nikulin et al (2011) projected future climate and assessed projected extremes using RCM forced by multi-GCM. Zou and Zhou (2013) showed results of near-future climate simulation for 2015-2040 using RegCM3 under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 8.5 scenario. They found that total and extreme precipitation tended to decrease over southeastern China but tended to increase over northeastern China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Future Climate Changes in the East Asian Summer and Winter Monsoon Using Regional Spectral Model

Ham

Lee

Yoshimura

2016

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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This study investigated potential future climate changes over East Asia with a focus on temperature variation and changes in precipitation as well as future changes in the East Asian monsoon system. The current and future climate projection scenarios are downscaled over East Asia using the regional spectral model (RSM). The representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios driven by the Hadley Center Global Environmental Model version 2 (HG2) are used to provide large-scale forcing for the RSM downscaling simulations. Simulations were conducted for the current climate from 1980 to 2005 and two types of future climate between 2020 and 2100. Near-future (2025Near-future ( -2050 and far-future (2075-2100) climate simulations are compared with the current climatology to investigate climatic change over East Asia. The RSM well captures the precipitation and temperature distribution related to the East Asian summer and winter monsoon and mesoscale mountain range with added values, although the wet and cold biases are aggravated in the RSM downscaling. Additionally, short time-scale phenomena such as daily mean temperature and daily precipitation are more accurately reproduced by the RSM than by the HG2. From future climate projection, the increasing temperature trends of each RCP scenario are consistently reproduced in the RSM downscaling; in particular, the result from the RCP 8.5 experiment shows a significantly steeper trend with increasing temperature. Meanwhile, the East Asian monsoon is intensified in the future climate projection by the strengthening North Pacific subtropical high and Okhotsk high in summer and intensified Siberian high in winter. These changes lead to an increase in precipitation for summer and a decrease for winter.

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Assessment of the RegCM4 over East Asia and future precipitation change adapted to the RCP scenarios

Park

Lee

et al. 2014

J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.

101

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In this study, we investigated spatial and temporal changes in precipitation over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia domain, for present (1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) and future (2031-2050) periods using the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). Future meteorology produced by the Hadley Center Global Environmental Model version 2 coupled with the Atmosphere-Ocean (HadGEM2-AO) following global climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5) was used as meteorological boundary conditions for the RegCM4. Six subregions (South Korea, North China, South China, Japan, Mongolia, and India) in the CORDEX East Asia domain were considered for analysis. The RegCM4 simulated spatial distributions of precipitation over East Asia with a correlation coefficient of 0.7 against Climate Research Unit data. The simulation skills of its temporal variability varied based on geographical regions and seasons, showing relatively poorer performance (underestimation in rainfall amount) in summer than in winter, in general. The future climate simulations by the RegCM4 presented that the East Asian continental regions will be warmer and more humid, leading to increased precipitation amounts, especially in the summer. The summer precipitation amount was projected to increase by about 5%, on average, over the East Asian domain, 5À15% in most subregions, and even higher (44% and 24%) in the South Korean region for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. It was also expected that heavy rainfall (> 50 mm/d) events may occur more frequently in the future possibly owing to meteorological changes that are favorable to convective heavy precipitation.

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Near future (2016-40) summer precipitation changes over China as projected by a regional climate model (RCM) under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario: Comparison between RCM downscaling and the driving GCM

Cited by 92 publications

References 40 publications

Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of precipitation over China

Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of precipitation over China

Assessing Future Climate Changes in the East Asian Summer and Winter Monsoon Using Regional Spectral Model

Assessment of the RegCM4 over East Asia and future precipitation change adapted to the RCP scenarios

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