Assessing Future Climate Changes in the East Asian Summer and Winter Monsoon Using Regional Spectral Model

Abstract

This study investigated potential future climate changes over East Asia with a focus on temperature variation and changes in precipitation as well as future changes in the East Asian monsoon system. The current and future climate projection scenarios are downscaled over East Asia using the regional spectral model (RSM). The representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios driven by the Hadley Center Global Environmental Model version 2 (HG2) are used to provide large-scale forcing for the RSM downscaling simulations. Simulations were conducted for the current climate from 1980 to 2005 and two types of future climate between 2020 and 2100. Near-future (2025Near-future ( -2050 and far-future (2075-2100) climate simulations are compared with the current climatology to investigate climatic change over East Asia. The RSM well captures the precipitation and temperature distribution related to the East Asian summer and winter monsoon and mesoscale mountain range with added values, although the wet and cold biases are aggravated in the RSM downscaling. Additionally, short time-scale phenomena such as daily mean temperature and daily precipitation are more accurately reproduced by the RSM than by the HG2. From future climate projection, the increasing temperature trends of each RCP scenario are consistently reproduced in the RSM downscaling; in particular, the result from the RCP 8.5 experiment shows a significantly steeper trend with increasing temperature. Meanwhile, the East Asian monsoon is intensified in the future climate projection by the strengthening North Pacific subtropical high and Okhotsk high in summer and intensified Siberian high in winter. These changes lead to an increase in precipitation for summer and a decrease for winter.

Contributions of GCM/RCM Uncertainty in Ensemble Dynamical Downscaling for Precipitation in East Asian Summer Monsoon Season

“…et al 2006), NRAMS (Pielke et al 1992), WRF (Skamarock et al 2008), and RSM (Juang 2000). These RCMs are selected based on their extensive applications around Japan (Iizumi et al 2011;Ishizaki et al 2012;Ham et al 2016;Kusaka et al 2016;Nayak and Dairaku 2016;Nayak et al 2017). The horizontal resolution is commonly set at 20 km with the model domain covering the Japanese islands and the surrounding vicinity ( Fig.…”

Precipitation Redistribution Method for Regional Simulations of Radioactive Material Transport During the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident

“…A characteristic of RSM is its use of a spectral nudging technique (Kanamitsu et al, ; Yoshimura & Kanamitsu, ) that improves accuracy in the predicted meteorological field (Yoshimura et al, ). The overall performance of RSM as a regional climate model has been well demonstrated in many studies (e.g., Ham et al, ; Miller et al, ). The advantage of using IsoRSM is that both calculation of meteorological field and transport process of tracers can be conducted in the same model, whereas a typical dispersion model handles the meteorological field as input and not‐so‐often updated (hourly to several hourly interval).…”

Penerapan Metode Anova1 Untuk Perbandingan Parameter Atmosfer Permukaan Antara Padang Dan Selaparang

“…[14] untuk menguji keterkaitan parameter dalam kasus benda jatuh di atmosfer, menunjukkan bahwa energi kinetik atmosfer lebih ditentukan oleh kecepatan awal dibandingkan massa dan sudut azimuth. Kajiankajian iklim terkait proyeksi iklim, perubahan iklim ataupun pemodelan cuaca yang menggunakan metode lain diantaranya seperti yang dilakukan dalam [15], [16], [17] dapat memanfaatkan metode ANOVA. Metode ANOVA juga mempunyai potensi digunakan dalam membandingkan kinerja instrument baru terhadap instrument lainnya.…”