Natural Intentions: Fertility Decline in the African Demographic and Health Surveys

Johnson‐Hanks, Jennifer

doi:10.1086/508791

Cited by 67 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…The desired fertility also enables the calculation of excess fertility through the comparison of desired and actual fertility. Despite this important objective, responses to the question about the ideal number of children, as an indicator of the desired fertility, have been criticized regarding their validity and reliability [56], particularly for the African context [57].…”

Section: Issues Related To Desired Fertilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Variations in Desired Family Size and Excess Fertility in East Africa

Muhoza

Broekhuis

Hooimeijer

2014

International Journal of Population Research

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This contribution studies the variation in desired family size and excess fertility in four East African countries by analyzing the combined impact of wealth, education, religious affiliation, and place of residence. The findings show an enormous heterogeneity in Kenya. Wealthy and higher educated people have fertility desires close to replacement level, regardless of religion, while poor, uneducated people, particularly those in Muslim communities, have virtually uncontrolled fertility. Rwanda is at the other extreme: poor, uneducated people have the same desired fertility as their wealthy, educated compatriots, regardless of their religion-a case of "poverty Malthusianism. ". The potential for family planning is high in both countries as more than 50% of the women having 5 children or more would have preferred to stop at 4 or less. Tanzania and Uganda have an intermediate position in desired family size and a lower potential for family planning. Generally, the main factor that sustains higher fertility is poverty exacerbated by religious norms among the poor only.

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Section: Issues Related To Desired Fertilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Variations in Desired Family Size and Excess Fertility in East Africa

Muhoza

Broekhuis

Hooimeijer

2014

International Journal of Population Research

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“…2,3 Indeed, researchers in the region have argued that even individuals who are committed to a particular family size may temporarily alter their fertility preferences in response to changes in economic or reproductive circumstances. 2,3 In studies from Africa, fertility preferences reported in surveys are often tentative and malleable. [2][3][4][5][6] Such flexibility may allow for change in fertility preferences, even over short time periods.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…2,3 In studies from Africa, fertility preferences reported in surveys are often tentative and malleable. [2][3][4][5][6] Such flexibility may allow for change in fertility preferences, even over short time periods. Understanding how fertility timing preferences change over time is particularly useful, because the timing of births is likely to influence ultimate family size, perhaps even more so than individuals' ideal number of children.…”

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confidence: 99%

Stability and Change in Fertility Preferences Among Young Women in Malawi

Sennott¹,

Yeatman²

2012

IPSRH

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Fertility preferences are important measures for forecasting fertility, calculating levels of unwanted or mistimed fertility and assessing unmet need for contraceptives. One of the assumptions underlying the use of fertility preferences for these objectives is that they are relatively stable over time.1 However, in Sub-Saharan Africa-where fertility, both desired and actual, remains comparatively high and childbearing patterns are increasingly heterogeneousfertility preferences are likely to be unstable.* Very little research has focused on how individuals' fertility timing desires change over time; however, there is evidence that other fertility preferences respond to changes in life circumstances. 2,3 Indeed, researchers in the region have argued that even individuals who are committed to a particular family size may temporarily alter their fertility preferences in response to changes in economic or reproductive circumstances. 2,3 In studies from Africa, fertility preferences reported in surveys are often tentative and malleable. 2-6Such flexibility may allow for change in fertility preferences, even over short time periods. Understanding how fertility timing preferences change over time is particularly useful, because the timing of births is likely to influence ultimate family size, perhaps even more so than individuals' ideal number of children. In fertility transition research, which has traditionally focused on aggregate measures of fertility preferences and their predictors, structural changes, such as economic development and societal improvements in education and health, are associated with changes in country-level fertility preferences.7-12 However, fertility preferences are characteristics of individuals and couples, not countries. Rarely have studies, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, examined how changes in life circumstances relate to an individual's fertility preferences. The present study uses five waves of longitudinal data collected in rural Malawi in 2009-2010 to examine the stability of women's fertility preferences over time and the life events that are associated with delays or accelerations in the desired timing of the next birth. Charting Preferences over TimeFertility is highly valued in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the desire to stop childbearing is rare among younger women. Still, a woman may be reasonably certain that she wants to have another child, but she may be less sure about when she wants to have a child; equally, she may be more focused on whether now is the right time to have a child with a particular partner than on precisely how many children she plans to have over her lifetime. By Christie Sennott and Sara Yeatman Stability and Change in Fertility Preferences Among Young Women in Malawi*The existence of heterogeneous childbearing patterns in the midst of high fertility suggests that social norms regarding fertility are in flux. Thus, women in such a context may have more flexibility in terms of the desired number or timing of future children. Additionally, women may face few...

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“…According to demographic transition theory, women who provide a non-numeric IFS response approach their fertility from a 'pre-transition mindset' rather than envisioning and pursuing a particular family size (van de Walle 1992), and this mindset is thought to be related to a lack of awareness that fertility can be controlled intentionally (Coale 1973;Johnson-Hanks 2007). A small body of research has found that non-numeric IFS responses are associated with low educational attainment (McCarthy and Oni 1987;Riley et al 1993) and uncertainty stemming from high mortality (LeGrand et al 2003;Sandberg 2005;Hayford and Agadjanian 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The demography of words: the global decline in non-numeric fertility preferences, 1993-2011

Frye¹,

Bachan²

2018

Preprint

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This paper examines the decline in non-numeric responses to questions about fertility preferences among women in the developing world. These types of response-such as 'don't know' or 'it's up to God'-have often been interpreted through the lens of fertility transition theory as an indication that reproduction has not yet entered women's 'calculus of conscious choice' (Coale 1973, p. 65). However, this has yet to be investigated cross-nationally and over time. Using 19 years of data from 32 countries, we find that non-numeric fertility preferences decline most substantially in the early stages of a country's fertility transition. Using countryspecific and multilevel models, we explore the individual-and contextual-level characteristics associated with women's likelihood of providing a non-numeric response to questions about their fertility preferences. Non-numeric fertility preferences are influenced by a host of social factors, with educational attainment and knowledge of contraception being the most robust and consistent predictors.

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Natural Intentions: Fertility Decline in the African Demographic and Health Surveys

Cited by 67 publications

References 62 publications

Variations in Desired Family Size and Excess Fertility in East Africa

Variations in Desired Family Size and Excess Fertility in East Africa

Stability and Change in Fertility Preferences Among Young Women in Malawi

The demography of words: the global decline in non-numeric fertility preferences, 1993-2011

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