Stability and Change in Fertility Preferences Among Young Women in Malawi

Abstract

Fertility preferences are important measures for forecasting fertility, calculating levels of unwanted or mistimed fertility and assessing unmet need for contraceptives. One of the assumptions underlying the use of fertility preferences for these objectives is that they are relatively stable over time.1 However, in Sub-Saharan Africa-where fertility, both desired and actual, remains comparatively high and childbearing patterns are increasingly heterogeneousfertility preferences are likely to be unstable.* Very little research has focused on how individuals' fertility timing desires change over time; however, there is evidence that other fertility preferences respond to changes in life circumstances. 2,3 Indeed, researchers in the region have argued that even individuals who are committed to a particular family size may temporarily alter their fertility preferences in response to changes in economic or reproductive circumstances. 2,3 In studies from Africa, fertility preferences reported in surveys are often tentative and malleable. 2-6Such flexibility may allow for change in fertility preferences, even over short time periods. Understanding how fertility timing preferences change over time is particularly useful, because the timing of births is likely to influence ultimate family size, perhaps even more so than individuals' ideal number of children. In fertility transition research, which has traditionally focused on aggregate measures of fertility preferences and their predictors, structural changes, such as economic development and societal improvements in education and health, are associated with changes in country-level fertility preferences.7-12 However, fertility preferences are characteristics of individuals and couples, not countries. Rarely have studies, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, examined how changes in life circumstances relate to an individual's fertility preferences. The present study uses five waves of longitudinal data collected in rural Malawi in 2009-2010 to examine the stability of women's fertility preferences over time and the life events that are associated with delays or accelerations in the desired timing of the next birth. Charting Preferences over TimeFertility is highly valued in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the desire to stop childbearing is rare among younger women. Still, a woman may be reasonably certain that she wants to have another child, but she may be less sure about when she wants to have a child; equally, she may be more focused on whether now is the right time to have a child with a particular partner than on precisely how many children she plans to have over her lifetime. By Christie Sennott and Sara Yeatman Stability and Change in Fertility Preferences Among Young Women in Malawi*The existence of heterogeneous childbearing patterns in the midst of high fertility suggests that social norms regarding fertility are in flux. Thus, women in such a context may have more flexibility in terms of the desired number or timing of future children. Additionally, women may face few...

The Flexibility of Fertility Preferences in a Context of Uncertainty

“…Confirmed or suspected HIV infection, for example, leads women to accelerate their childbearing plans in order to achieve their ideal family size while still in good health (Trinitapoli and Yeatman ), while caregiving responsibilities for non‐biological children (fostering) often lead women to reduce their numeric preferences and delay their childbearing (Bachan ). Labor market opportunities may lead women to adjust their timing preferences (Sennott and Yeatman ), while expectations that any serious relationship would be solidified through offspring mean that partnership changes in the wake of death or divorce tend to increase desired fertility (Verheijen ; Yeatman et al. ).…”

“…5 Other analyses using TLT data have shown that women's numeric and timing preferences changed over time in patterned ways, most predictably by relationship changes and economic factors (Sennott and Yeatman 2012;).…”

“…First, although instability in fertility preferences is higher in developing contexts than in the West (Bankole and Westoff ; Kodzi, Johnson, and Casterline ), new evidence suggests that this preference instability is not simply random noise but frequently patterned. In Malawi, for example, the setting of our present study, women change their numeric and timing preferences in response to changes in their relationships (divorce, widowhood, new marriage) and reproductive circumstances (pregnancies and child mortality) (Sennott and Yeatman ; Yeatman, Sennott, and Culpepper ). Furthermore, instability itself has predictive power with respect to short‐term fertility outcomes (Kodzi et al.…”

Young Women’s Dynamic Family Size Preferences in the Context of Transitioning Fertility

“…Two studies, one from Ghana and one from Morocco, found that approximately two-thirds of women provided different responses to ideal family size questions over their respective two- and three-year reference periods (Bankole and Westoff 1998; Debpuur and Bawah 2002). Other studies from Africa have found that changes in the desire for more children and the desired timing of children are common (Kodzi et al 2010; Sennott and Yeatman 2012). …”

Capturing Complexities of Relationship‐Level Family Planning Trajectories in Malawi

“…In contexts of uncertainty, women's fertility preferences and behaviors are flexible, dynamic over time, and responsive to social milieus and networks (Entwisle et al. ; Sandberg ; Sennott and Yeatman ; Trinitapoli and Yeatman ; Yeatman, Sennott, and Culpepper ). Attitudes toward and use of contraception change as relationships shift and evolve (Adetunji ; Anglewicz and Clark ).…”