Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters: The Economics of Effective Prevention

Sanghi, Apurva; Ramachandran, S.; Fuente, Alejandro de la; Tonizzo, Martina; Sahin, Sebnem; Adam, Bianca

doi:10.1037/e596872012-001

Cited by 17 publications

(17 citation statements)

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“…Further, permanent relocation would mean leaving a traditional way of life culturally important for these communities. For example, people have populated hazard-prone low-lying zones such as the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta for centuries because the river delta is fertile for rice and jute productions (Sanghi et al 2011).…”

Section: Adaptation Strategies To Storm Surgesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A single event can lead to catastrophic loss of life, as the 1970 Bhola cyclone killed more than 300 000 people and the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone lead to more than 138 000 deaths (Murty et al 1986;Ali 1999;Sanghi et al 2011). TC strikes often kill thousands of people and displace millions in this lowincome, densely populated region (Seo and Bakkensen 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Is Tropical Cyclone Surge, Not Intensity, What Kills So Many People in South Asia?

Seo¹,

Bakkensen

2017

Weather, Climate, and Society

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This paper statistically examines the hypothesis that the level of storm surge, not storm intensity, is primarily responsible for the large number of tropical cyclone fatalities in South Asia. Because the potential causal link between intensity and surge can confound statistical inference, the authors develop two fatality models using different assumptions on the relationship between storm surge and intensity. The authors find evidence that storm surge is a primary killer of people in South Asia relative to storm intensity. In a surgepressure independence model, it is found that a 10-cm increase in storm surge results in a 14% increase in the number of fatalities. In a surge-pressure dependence model, a 10-cm increase in the level of surge not driven by minimum central pressure (MCP) leads to 9.9% increase in the number of fatalities. By contrast, a one-millibar (1 hPa) decrease in MCP leads to a 7.3% increase in the number of fatalities, some of which is also attributable to storm surge. In South Asia, adaptation strategies should target a higher level of storm surge instead of higher-intensity storms. Policies to combat surge include permanent relocation, temporary evacuation, changes in building structures, and coastal fortification.

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Section: Adaptation Strategies To Storm Surgesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is Tropical Cyclone Surge, Not Intensity, What Kills So Many People in South Asia?

Seo¹,

Bakkensen

2017

Weather, Climate, and Society

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“…The death and destruction caused by these events can have an impact on the gross domestic product (GDP) of developing countries that is 20 times larger than their impact on developed, industrialized countries [Sanghi et al, 2011]. An example of the large impacts of flooding on GDP can be drawn from the 2014 floods in Serbia (SRB).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future scenarios for earthquake and flood risk in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

et al. 2017

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We report on a regional flood and earthquake risk assessment for 33 countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Flood and earthquake risk were defined in terms of affected population and affected gross domestic product (GDP). Earthquake risk was also quantified in terms of fatalities and capital loss. Estimates of future population and GDP affected by earthquakes vary significantly among five shared socioeconomic pathways that are used to represent population and GDP in 2030 and 2080. There is a linear relationship between the future relative change in a nation's exposure (population or GDP) and its future relative change in annual average population or GDP affected by earthquakes. The evolution of flood hazard was quantified using a flood model with boundary conditions derived from five different general circulation models and two representative concentration pathways, and changes in population and GDP were quantified using two shared socioeconomic pathways. There is a nonlinear relationship between the future relative change in a nation's exposure (population or GDP) and its future relative change in its annual average population or GDP affected by floods. Six regions can be defined for positive and negative relative change in population that designate whether climate change can temper, counter, or reinforce relative changes in flood risk produced by changes in population or exposure. The departure from the one-to-one relationship between a relative change in a nation's population or GDP and its relative change in flood risk could be used to inform further efforts at flood mitigation and adaptation.Plain Language Summary Floods and earthquakes affect the economy and population of countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Future changes in these countries' economies and population will change the impacts of floods and earthquakes. In addition, future changes in climate will change how often flooding occurs. We assume that earthquake occurrence won't change with climate changes. We show how much the economies and populations of these countries are affected by floods and earthquakes in 2015, 2030 and 2080. However, as we don't know for certain how the economies, population and climate will change in the future, we show result for a variety of scenarios for future economies, population and climate. We assess how future changes in the economy and population affect future flood risk using changes in earthquake risk, and assume the remaining change is caused by changes in climate. We suggest that for some countries the population affected by floods can increase even with a decrease in population, or the population affected by floods and decrease even with an increase in population, if the future change in flood hazard is sufficiently large.

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“…Another interesting example is given by the World Bank [2010] and United Nations where a study about retrofitting of buildings to increase earthquake resiliency provides a costbenefit ratio of up to eight, for a discount rate of 5%. Sanghi [2010], on the presentation of the same study, provides a benefit-cost ratio of 4.6 for earthquakes, based in Istanbul, and stressed the obvious fact that the world population exposed to earthquakes will rise dramatically from investment, it is necessary to set priorities and consider an extended period of time to get communities physically, socially and economically resilient.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simplified indexes for the seismic assessment of masonry buildings: International database and validation

Lourenço

Oliveira

Leite

et al. 2013

Engineering Failure Analysis

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Heritage masonry buildings are particularly vulnerable to earthquakes because they are deteriorated and damaged, they were built with materials with low resistance, they are heavy and the connections between the various structural components are often insufficient. The present work details a simplified method of seismic assessment of large span masonry structures that was applied to a database of 44 monuments in Italy, Portugal and Spain, providing lower bound formulas for different simplified geometrical indexes. Subsequently, the proposed thresholds are validated with data from the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquakes, which includes 48 stone and clay brick masonry churches. Finally, fragility curves that can be used to estimate the damage as a function of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) are also provided

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Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters: The Economics of Effective Prevention

Cited by 17 publications

References 0 publications

Is Tropical Cyclone Surge, Not Intensity, What Kills So Many People in South Asia?

Is Tropical Cyclone Surge, Not Intensity, What Kills So Many People in South Asia?

Future scenarios for earthquake and flood risk in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Simplified indexes for the seismic assessment of masonry buildings: International database and validation

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