Is Tropical Cyclone Surge, Not Intensity, What Kills So Many People in South Asia?

Abstract

This paper statistically examines the hypothesis that the level of storm surge, not storm intensity, is primarily responsible for the large number of tropical cyclone fatalities in South Asia. Because the potential causal link between intensity and surge can confound statistical inference, the authors develop two fatality models using different assumptions on the relationship between storm surge and intensity. The authors find evidence that storm surge is a primary killer of people in South Asia relative to storm intensity. In a surgepressure independence model, it is found that a 10-cm increase in storm surge results in a 14% increase in the number of fatalities. In a surge-pressure dependence model, a 10-cm increase in the level of surge not driven by minimum central pressure (MCP) leads to 9.9% increase in the number of fatalities. By contrast, a one-millibar (1 hPa) decrease in MCP leads to a 7.3% increase in the number of fatalities, some of which is also attributable to storm surge. In South Asia, adaptation strategies should target a higher level of storm surge instead of higher-intensity storms. Policies to combat surge include permanent relocation, temporary evacuation, changes in building structures, and coastal fortification.

Rainfall asymmetries of landfalling tropical cyclones along the South China coast

“…Along coastal areas, a storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property (e.g. Irish et al ., ; Seo and Bakkensen, ), followed by flooding and landslips caused by the heavy rain (e.g. Marks and Shay, ; Rappaport, ; Chien and Kuo, ).…”

Cyclone risk assessment of the Cox’s Bazar district and Rohingya refugee camps in southeast Bangladesh

“…Storm surge is a phenomenon of rising water height of the waves because of high speed winds and low pressure associated with the cyclones resulting in coastal floods. Previous experiences reveal that most of cyclone related deaths in Bangladesh were due to surges associated with the storms (Khalil, 1992;Zachry et al, 2015;Seo and Bakkensen, 2016). UNICEF (1993) cyclone evaluatio n team during their post cyclone (1991) survey observed that almost all deaths have been as a result of drowning from the tidal wave that accompanied the cyclone.…”

“…Between 1980 and 2009 cyclones affected 466 million people, resulting in death of 412,644 and injury to 290,654 with less developed nations in Asia experiencing the maximum mortality and injury (Doocy et al, 2013). On an average, a tropical storm landfall in the north Indian Ocean results in death of about 2000 persons which is much higher compared to average fatalities per landfall in any other ocean basin of the world (Seo and Bakkensen, 2016).…”

Beyond the Paris Agreement: Climate change policy negotiations and future directions

“…On the other hand, adaptation research over the past two decades has reported high potential and observed net benefits of adaptation strategies and measures to global warming in natural resource intensive industries (Seo and Mendelsohn ; Seo , , , ), in sea level rises (Yohe and Schlesinger ; Ng and Mendelsohn ), in heat‐related or cold‐related fatalities (Barreca et al ), and in extreme events such as tropical cyclone‐caused fatalities (Seo ; Seo and Bakkensen ). In many world regions, adaptation will make harmful effects of global warming much less severe.…”