Natural Disasters and Political Participation: Evidence from the 2002 and 2013 Floods in Germany

Abstract

How do natural disasters affect electoral participation? The existing social science literature offers contradicting predictions. On the one hand a considerable literature in sociology and psychology suggest that traumatic events can inspire pro-social behavior, which might increase turnout. On the other hand, political science has long held that economic resources are crucial ingredients for civic engagement. Consequentially, natural disasters should reduce electoral participation. We show how these distinct views can be jointly analysed within the Riker and Ordeshook model of voting. This paper then reports results on the impact of the 2002 and 2013 floods in Germany on turnout in federal and state elections in Saxonia and Bavaria, conducted few weeks after the floods. Analyzing community level turnout data, and drawing on a differencein-differences framework, we find that flood exposure has a consistent negative effect on turnout, even in the wake of a quick and effective government response. This indicates that the increase in the costs of voting outweighed any increase in political engagement in our case. This stands in contrast to results from developing contexts, where flood management was convincingly linked to electoral participation, suggesting that the impact of natural disasters might differ substantially between developed and developing countries. We additionally find no support for mechanisms proposed in other contexts, e.g. the salience of the race or partisanship, pointing to the need for additional research.

Do natural disasters help the environment? How voters respond and what that means

“…We argue that people make social judgments based on the information that is most salient or available to them. Indeed, several scholars have previously claimed that individuals are often overly influenced by a single dominant consideration or explanation (Shelley and Fiske 1978; Tversky and Kahneman 1982; Rudolph and Kuhn 2018). More specifically, we argue that personal experience serves as a focal point to form opinions on specific political issues over which people hold different considerations.…”

Natural Disasters and Political Participation: The Case of Japan and the 2011 Triple Disaster

“…Kosec and Mo (2015), for instance, show that natural disasters decrease aspiration, which is strongly associated with political participation. Similarly, Rudolph and Kuhn (2018) find that the costs of voting resulting from flooding in Germany far outweighs any increase in political engagement linked to effective flood management. Bodet, Thomas, and Tessier (2016) find similar results in Canada.…”

“…While scholars have proposed a number of theories that explain how natural disasters might elevate political participation, underlying mechanisms have rarely been directly assessed. Other studies cast doubt on this relationship entirely, finding empirical support for the negative impact that one would naturally expect (e.g., Rudolph and Kuhn 2018). What is the causal effect of natural disasters on political participation, and what might be underlying this relationship?…”

Utjecaj poplave na lokalne izbore u Metkoviću 2013. godine / Impact of Floods on Local Elections in Metković 2013.

“…Pobjednici nezavisne liste ubrzo pristupaju HDZ-u koji formira vlast te novi gradonačelnik postaje Stipo Gabrić Jambo. 11 Izlaznost na ovim izborima bila je rekordnih 68,94%. Metkovski HDZ na čelu s Jambom…”

“…Bovan i dr. 2018 10. Szpala 2014 11. Stipe Gabrić Jambo, bivši metkovski gradonačelnik i poduzetnik, po struci magistar agronomije.Gradonačelnik je postao 1997. te je dužnost obnašao do 2013. godine pobijedivši na ukupno pet lokalnih izbora.…”