Natural Climate Oscillations may Counteract Red Sea Warming Over the Coming Decades

Krokos, George; Papadopoulos, Vassilis P.; Sofianos, Sarantis; Ombao, Hernando; Dybczak, Patryk; Hoteit, Ibrahim

doi:10.1029/2018gl081397

Cited by 31 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 40 publications

(76 reference statements)

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“…Inside the RS, the SST exhibits a significant positive relationship with the AMO, which does not differ from the surrounding area in terms of relationship sign and intensity, especially in the northern half. Thus, the substantial consistency between the region of the amplified warming trend and the region of a positive AMO relationship with both the SST and surrounding air temperature implies that the AMO might play a role in inducing the non-uniform warming in the air and sea temperature [ 26 ]. This observation may lead to validation of the AMO mechanisms in shaping summer warming over Europe-Middle East through the SRP [ 3 , 20 ], where the vertical temperature advection throughout the whole troposphere causes this warming.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal variability and recent summer warming amplification of the sea surface temperature in the Red Sea

et al. 2020

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Under climate change, regional Sea Surface Temperature (SST) changes are a crucial factor affecting marine ecosystems, which thrive only within a certain thermal limit. Thirty-seven years of monthly gridded Optimum Interpolation SST data from 1982 to 2017 were used to investigate the decadal variability of this parameter in the Red Sea during the summer season, in relation to large-scale climate variability. We identified a non-uniform warming trend beginning around the mid-1990s over the whole basin, with a predominant amplified warming over the northern half (0.04°C year -1 ), which is approximately four times higher than the global warming trend, but much weaker warming over southern end (0.01°C year -1 ). It was found that the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Silk Road Pattern (SRP) are shaping the RS SST, since their phase shift concurs with the timing of the significant non-uniform warming over the basin. The AMO triggers the SRP-related vertical and horizontal temperature advection that leads to opposite changes in the SST. We suggest that warming is amplified over the basin due to an overlap with global warming signals. Our results have important implications for interannual and decadal SST predictions based on the predictability of AMO and SRP patterns.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal variability and recent summer warming amplification of the sea surface temperature in the Red Sea

et al. 2020

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“…In situ observations provide a basis for many oceanographic and meteorological applications. However, the number of observations is limited in space and time and statistical methods must be often applied to homogenize the dataset to be fitted for climate studies and/or model validation (Larsen et al, 2007). We used a classical optimal interpolation algorithm (henceforward OI; Gandin, 1966) to generate 3-D gridded monthly temperature maps from individual in situ profiles (henceforward called TEMPERSEA product).…”

Section: Mapping Algorithmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal evolution of temperatures in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden based on in situ observations (1958–2017)

et al. 2020

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Abstract. The Red Sea holds one of the most diverse marine ecosystems in the world, although fragile and vulnerable to ocean warming. Several studies have analysed the spatio-temporal evolution of temperature in the Red Sea using satellite data, thus focusing only on the surface layer and covering the last ∼30 years. To better understand the long-term variability and trends of temperature in the whole water column, we produce a 3-D gridded temperature product (TEMPERSEA) for the period 1958–2017, based on a large number of in situ observations, covering the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. After a specific quality control, a mapping algorithm based on optimal interpolation have been applied to homogenize the data. Also, an estimate of the uncertainties of the product has been generated. The calibration of the algorithm and the uncertainty computation has been done through sensitivity experiments based on synthetic data from a realistic numerical simulation. TEMPERSEA has been compared to satellite observations of sea surface temperature for the period 1981–2017, showing good agreement especially in those periods when a reasonable number of observations were available. Also, very good agreement has been found between air temperatures and reconstructed sea temperatures in the upper 100 m for the whole period 1958–2017, enhancing confidence in the quality of the product. The product has been used to characterize the spatio-temporal variability of the temperature field in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden at different timescales (seasonal, interannual and multidecadal). Clear differences have been found between the two regions suggesting that the Red Sea variability is mainly driven by air–sea interactions, while in the Gulf of Aden the lateral advection of water plays a relevant role. Regarding long-term evolution, our results show only positive trends above 40 m depth, with maximum trends of 0.045 + 0.016 ∘C decade−1 at 15 m, and the largest negative trends at 125 m (-0.072+0.011 ∘C decade−1). Multidecadal variations have a strong impact on the trend computation and restricting them to the last 30–40 years of data can bias high the trend estimates.

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“…Several recent studies 48 have discussed the anomalously increasing trend of SST in the Red Sea, and further provide evidence that these increasing trends are modulated by the AMV+ through atmospheric teleconnection. Our suite of idealized numerical simulations (including both Atlantic Pacemaker and DCPP-Component C experiments) also faithfully reproduce the summer ME-SAT multidecadal variability and the basin-wide north Atlantic SST connection.…”

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confidence: 99%

Atlantic Ocean influence on Middle East summer surface air temperature

et al. 2020

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Middle East surface air temperature (ME-SAT), during boreal summer (June to August: JJA), shows robust multidecadal variations for the period 1948−2016. Here, using observational and reanalysis datasets, as well as coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulations, we linked the observed summer ME-SAT variability to the multidecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean (AMV). This Atlantic−ME connection during summer involves ocean-atmosphere interactions through multiple ocean basins, with an influence from the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. The downstream response to Atlantic SST is a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet stream that impacts summer ME-SAT variability through a wave-like pattern in the upper tropospheric levels. The Atlantic SST response is further characterized by positive geopotential height anomalies in the upper levels over the Eurasian region and a dipole-like pressure distribution over the ME in lower levels. For positive Atlantic SST anomalies this pressure gradient initiates anomalous low-level southerly flow, which transports moisture from the neighboring water bodies toward the extremely hot and dry ME landmass. The increase in atmospheric moisture reduces the longwave radiation damping of the SAT anomaly, increasing further ME-SAT. A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments skillfully reproduces the North Atlantic-ME teleconnection. Our findings reveal that in observations and models the Atlantic Ocean acts as a critical pacemaker for summer ME-SAT multidecadal variability and that a positive AMV can lead to enhanced summer warming over the Middle East.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2020) 3:5 ; https://doi.

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Natural Climate Oscillations may Counteract Red Sea Warming Over the Coming Decades

Cited by 31 publications

References 40 publications

Decadal variability and recent summer warming amplification of the sea surface temperature in the Red Sea

Decadal variability and recent summer warming amplification of the sea surface temperature in the Red Sea

Temporal evolution of temperatures in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden based on in situ observations (1958–2017)

Atlantic Ocean influence on Middle East summer surface air temperature

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