National scale assessment of climate change impacts on flooding in Finland

Veijalainen, Noora; Lotsari, Eliisa; Alho, Petteri; Vehviläinen, Bertel; Käyhkö, Jukka

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.035

Cited by 176 publications

(155 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…The work shows that the non-linearity of the rainfall-runoff transformation and the propagation of the climate-to-flood change signal can be estimated with some degree of success by a set of climatic and physical catchment properties. Up to now, the role of the catchment in its response to climatic change has often been implicit and less investigated in climate change impact and adaptation studies than the climate change signal itself (see for example Kay et al, 2009;Veijalainen et al, 2010;Vidal and Wade, 2009). This deficiency was recognised by Ntelekos et al (2010), but while they clearly identified the major role the level and type of urbanisation has on the sensitivity of an area to climatic changes, they did not attempt to formally link the response of a catchment to its physical (and non physical) characteristics and only evaluated the impact of a few scenarios (derived from climate models) on flooding.…”

Section: Hydrological Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and river flooding: Part 2 sensitivity characterisation for british catchments and example vulnerability assessments

et al. 2013

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This paper is the second of a series describing a scenario-neutral methodology to assess the sensitivity and vulnerability of British catchments to changes in flooding due to climate change. In paper one, nine flood sensitivity types were identified from response surfaces generated for 154 catchments. The response surfaces describe changes in 20-year return period flood peaks (RP20) in response to a large set of changes in precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration. In this paper, a recursive partitioning algorithm is used to link families of sensitivity types to catchment properties, via a decision tree. The tree shows 85% success characterising the four sensitivity families, using five properties and nine paths.Catchment annual average rainfall is the primary partitioning factor, with drier catchments having a more variable response to climate (precipitation) change than wetter catchments and higher catchment losses and permeability being aggravating factors. The full sensitivityexposure-vulnerability methodology is illustrated for two catchments: sensitivity is estimated by using the decision tree to identify the sensitivity family (and its associated average response surface); exposure is defined from a set of climate model projections and combined with the response surface to estimate the resulting impacts (changes in RP20);vulnerability under a range of adaptive capacity thresholds is estimated from the set of impacts. Even though they are geographically close, the two catchments show differing vulnerability to climate change, due to their differing properties. This demonstrates that generalised response surfaces characterised by catchment properties are useful screening 2 tools to quantify the vulnerability of catchments to climate change without the need to undertake a full climate change impact study.

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Section: Hydrological Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and river flooding: Part 2 sensitivity characterisation for british catchments and example vulnerability assessments

et al. 2013

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“…This is an important finding, especially regarding rivers with strong backwater effects during flood events. The effects of flood events on river evolution should get more attention in future studies, as flood regimes are expected to change along with the changing climate, especially in high altitudes and latitudes [60].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flow Patterns and Morphological Changes in a Sandy Meander Bend during a Flood—Spatially and Temporally Intensive ADCP Measurement Approach

Kasvi

Laamanen²,

Lotsari

et al. 2017

Water

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Abstract:The fluvio-geomorphological processes in meander bends are spatially uneven in distribution. Typically, higher velocities and erosion take place near the outer bank beyond the bend apex, while the inner bend point bar grows laterally towards the outer bank, increasing the bend amplitude. These dynamics maintain the meander evolution. Even though this development is found in meandering rivers independent of soil or environmental characteristics, each river still seems to behave unpredictably. The special mechanisms that determine the rate and occasion of morphological changes remain unclear. The aim of this study is to offer new insights regarding flow-induced morphological changes in meander using a novel study approach. We focused on short-term and small-spatial-scale changes by conducting a spatially and temporally (daily) intensive survey during a flood (a period of nine days) with an ADCP attached to a remotely controlled mini-boat. Based on our analysis, the flood duration and the rate of discharge increase and decrease seems to play key roles in determining channel changes by controlling the flow velocities and depth and the backwater effect may have notable influence on the morphological processes. We discuss themes such as the interaction of inner and outer bend processes and the longer-term development of meander bends.

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“…This was because the hydrological models did not adequately highlight the most extreme events that were experienced. This might be a consequence of the use of too narrow selection of global or regional climate models, as Veijalainen et al [27] present or the use of insufficient methods to estimate the probability of extreme weather events [39]. Nevertheless, it seems that the main risks can be best recognized by analysing the extreme weather events of past decades and years, together with studying the possible climate change impacts on seasonal variations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Figure 2 presents the schematic figure of the method used for assessing floods by taking into account the climate scenarios. For this case study, the hydrological models were simulated using two regional climate model scenarios (HadCM3 global model & A1B emission scenario, and ECHAM5 global model & A1B and A2 emission scenario) [27,28].…”

Section: Flood Assessment In Finlandmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining Climate Scenarios and Risk Management Approach—A Finnish Case Study

Molarius

Keränen

2015

Climate

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Climate change impacts on nature and the environment have been widely discussed and studied. Traditionally, a company's continuity management is based on risk analysis. There are also attempts to implement scenario-based methods in the risk management procedures of companies. For industrial decision makers, it is vital to acknowledge the impacts of climate change with regards to their adaptation strategies. However, a scenario-based approach is not always the most effective way to analyze these risks. This paper investigates the integration of scenario and risk-based methods for a company's adaptation planning. It considers the uncertainties of the climate change scenarios and the recognized risks as well as suitable adaptation strategies. The paper presents the results of climate risk analysis prepared for two Finnish hydropower plants. The introduced method was first piloted in 2008 and then again in 2015. The update of the analysis pointed out that at the company level, the climate risks and other risks originating from governmental or political decisions form an intertwined wholeness where the origin of the risk is difficult to outline. It seems that, from the business point of view, the main adaptation strategies suggested by the integrated risk and scenarios approach are those that support buying "safety margins" in new investments and reducing decision time horizons. Both of these adaptation strategies provide an advantage in the circumstances where also political decisions and societal changes have a great effect on decision making.

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National scale assessment of climate change impacts on flooding in Finland

Cited by 176 publications

References 49 publications

Climate change and river flooding: Part 2 sensitivity characterisation for british catchments and example vulnerability assessments

Climate change and river flooding: Part 2 sensitivity characterisation for british catchments and example vulnerability assessments

Flow Patterns and Morphological Changes in a Sandy Meander Bend during a Flood—Spatially and Temporally Intensive ADCP Measurement Approach

Combining Climate Scenarios and Risk Management Approach—A Finnish Case Study

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