Multistate worklife expectancies

Abstract

This communication reviews the demographic concept of worklife expectancy and draws the epidemiologists' attention to its usefulness in occupational health research and pension policy making. The distinctions between different analytic approaches to the quantification of expected workforce status and mobility are pointed out. A recently developed multivariate large-sample regression method for the analysis of worklife tables is placed into the general context of life tables. Given aggregated data from multiple cross-sectional or longitudinal population surveys, a multistate regression model can be used to estimate consistently marginal probabilities that a person is in a given work-health state or transition probabilities between the states and, thereby, worklife expectancies. The methodology is illustrated through the application to data from Finnish population statistics on employment, disability, retirement, and mortality. The paper closes with a discussion of the methodological issues and empirical findings on pension policy in Finland.

The influence of chronic health problems and work-related factors on loss of paid employment among older workers

“…Unemployment, however, was a more temporary transition, namely, 25% returned to paid employment within the next year. In future research it would be beneficial to use objective work status information, for example, based on tax registry information alongside self-reported data to study the main source of income, different routes out of employment and combined work status (eg, being early retired and working part-time) that can allow for different approaches to be used, such as multistate and working life expectancies models 36 37. Related to this, a limitation of the current study is that the time of an event was studied on a 1-year basis, that is, between questionnaire waves.…”

Tempos incertos e consequências sérias para a saúde

“…The difference could be due differences in the methods used or to a difference in the ages reached in worklife [64 years of age for Nurminen et al (2004aNurminen et al ( , 2005 and 74 years of age for Hytti & Nio (2004)]. It is clear, however, according to both studies, that the worklife expectancies are too short if the employment rate is to be increased significantly.…”

“…Worklife expectancy in Finland has also been calculated by the method of Nurminen et al (2004aNurminen et al ( , 2005. According to the calculation, the worklife expectancy for both men and women was 11 years.…”

Worklife expectancies of fixed-term Finnish employees in 1997–2006

“…Given aggregated data from sequential cross-sectional population surveys or from longitudinal follow-up studies, Expectancy gender ratio Nurminen a multistate regression model can be used to estimate consistently marginal probabilities that a person is in a given work-health state (the case in point) or transition probabilities between the states, and thereby worklife expectancies. A comparative perspective of the life-table and regression analysis approaches can be found in an earlier publication (15).…”