2019
DOI: 10.3390/pr7090584
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Multiple Scenarios Forecast of Electric Power Substitution Potential in China: From Perspective of Green and Sustainable Development

Abstract: To achieve sustainable social development, the Chinese government conducts electric power substitution strategy as a green move. Traditional fuels such as coal and oil could be replaced by electric power to achieve fundamental transformation of energy consumption structure. In order to forecast and analyze the developing potential of electric power substitution, a forecasting model based on a correlation test, the cuckoo search optimization (CSO) algorithm and extreme learning machine (ELM) method is construct… Show more

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Cited by 11 publications
(6 citation statements)
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References 21 publications
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“…In addition, to predict the potential of electric power substitution, some studies use advanced models to analyze and predict the future level of electric power substitution in China (Tan et al, 2012;Li and Chen, 2018;Wu et al, 2019;Geng et al, 2022). Liu et al (2018) forecast the total terminal energy consumption and the proportion of electric energy consumption in terminal energy consumption based on the logistic model, which supplements the medium and long-term load forecasting method.…”
Section: Literature Reviewmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In addition, to predict the potential of electric power substitution, some studies use advanced models to analyze and predict the future level of electric power substitution in China (Tan et al, 2012;Li and Chen, 2018;Wu et al, 2019;Geng et al, 2022). Liu et al (2018) forecast the total terminal energy consumption and the proportion of electric energy consumption in terminal energy consumption based on the logistic model, which supplements the medium and long-term load forecasting method.…”
Section: Literature Reviewmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Scenario analysis is a kind of scenario analysis method, change the parameters Energy Report [43][44]. With Vensim-PLE tool, through repeated operation and debugging, this paper sets that besides the benchmark scenario, there are energysaving scenario and super-energy-saving scenario, both of which can promote economic development, improve the ecological environment and reduce the carbon emission of thermal power [45][46]. However, in the development process, the measures taken by the two scenarios are different, so there is a certain gap in the achieved results.…”
Section: Scenario Analysis and Dynamic Simulationmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Wu et al [6] construct a forecasting model based on a correlation test, the cuckoo search optimization (CSO) algorithm and extreme learning machine (ELM) method in order to forecast and analyze the developing potential of electric power substitution. The results showed that the CSO-ELM model has great forecasting accuracy.…”
Section: New Energy Issuesmentioning
confidence: 99%