Multiple Scenarios Forecast of Electric Power Substitution Potential in China: From Perspective of Green and Sustainable Development

Wu, Jian; Tan, Zhongfu; De, Gejirifu; Pu, Lei; Wang, Keke; Tan, Qian; Ju, Liu

doi:10.3390/pr7090584

Cited by 11 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…In addition, to predict the potential of electric power substitution, some studies use advanced models to analyze and predict the future level of electric power substitution in China (Tan et al, 2012;Li and Chen, 2018;Wu et al, 2019;Geng et al, 2022). Liu et al (2018) forecast the total terminal energy consumption and the proportion of electric energy consumption in terminal energy consumption based on the logistic model, which supplements the medium and long-term load forecasting method.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic assessment of China’s re-electrification level considering carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals: A study based on functional data analysis

Guo¹,

Sun²,

Han³

et al. 2022

Front. Energy Res.

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Electrification is currently the most mature technological path to carbon neutrality. However, the traditional measurement methods of the electrification levels cannot meet the development requirements of China’s electrification under the dual-carbon strategy. Thus, this study incorporated carbon constraints into the re-electrification-level evaluation system and evaluated the re-electrification level of 30 provinces in China from 2007 to 2019 using the entropy weight method. Then, the functional data analysis method was employed to further explore the dynamic variation rule of the regional re-electrification level. The evaluation results show that the top three provinces in the mean value of the re-electrification index are Guangdong (0.628), Jiangsu (0.617), and Zhejiang (0.573). The clustering results show that there are great spatial differences in the development of electrification in China. According to the fitted function curve, China’s electrification development can be roughly divided into the following four stages: uptrend, brief decline, sharp uptrend, and slight and steady decline. At present, China’s electrification is entering a new stage. To implement re-electrification further, the government and the power grid enterprises need to find the priority and breakthroughs under carbon emissions and environmental constraints. Our research results provide reference for the improvement of regional re-electrification levels in China.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic assessment of China’s re-electrification level considering carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals: A study based on functional data analysis

Guo¹,

Sun²,

Han³

et al. 2022

Front. Energy Res.

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“…Scenario analysis is a kind of scenario analysis method, change the parameters Energy Report [43][44]. With Vensim-PLE tool, through repeated operation and debugging, this paper sets that besides the benchmark scenario, there are energysaving scenario and super-energy-saving scenario, both of which can promote economic development, improve the ecological environment and reduce the carbon emission of thermal power [45][46]. However, in the development process, the measures taken by the two scenarios are different, so there is a certain gap in the achieved results.…”

Section: Scenario Analysis and Dynamic Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction and Control Model of Carbon Emissions from Thermal Power Based on System Dynamics

Bao¹,

Xie²,

Huang³

2021

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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Thermal power is the main part in China's energy structure of power industry. Because of huge carbon emissions and relatively high energy consumption, thermal power has been listed as an important industry for energy conservation and emission reduction. Therefore, the growth rate, carbon emissions growth peak and developing trend of China's thermal power are modeled and simulated based on System Dynamics. With three scenarios set up, so as to explore the impact of the economic development, optimization of power structure and improve CCS technology and adjust national policy on carbon emissions thermal power industry in the future. The results show that, according to the current development trend, the total amount of carbon emissions in thermal power industry will reach a peak of 4.228 billion t in 2026. At the same time, there is a significant positive correlation between economic development and thermal power carbon emissions. The current best and fastest way for China is reducing the proportion of thermal power generation and increasing the proportion of non-fossil power generation. The widespread use of the CCS technology will also greatly reduce thermal power carbon emissions. The simulation results of this paper provide the Chinese government with suggestions for carbon emissions reduction, power structure determination, the long-time development of thermal power.

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“…Wu et al [6] construct a forecasting model based on a correlation test, the cuckoo search optimization (CSO) algorithm and extreme learning machine (ELM) method in order to forecast and analyze the developing potential of electric power substitution. The results showed that the CSO-ELM model has great forecasting accuracy.…”

Section: New Energy Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Special Issue on “Green Technologies for Production Processes”

et al. 2021

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Multiple Scenarios Forecast of Electric Power Substitution Potential in China: From Perspective of Green and Sustainable Development

Cited by 11 publications

References 21 publications

Dynamic assessment of China’s re-electrification level considering carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals: A study based on functional data analysis

Dynamic assessment of China’s re-electrification level considering carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals: A study based on functional data analysis

Prediction and Control Model of Carbon Emissions from Thermal Power Based on System Dynamics

Special Issue on “Green Technologies for Production Processes”

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