Dynamic assessment of China’s re-electrification level considering carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals: A study based on functional data analysis

Abstract

Electrification is currently the most mature technological path to carbon neutrality. However, the traditional measurement methods of the electrification levels cannot meet the development requirements of China’s electrification under the dual-carbon strategy. Thus, this study incorporated carbon constraints into the re-electrification-level evaluation system and evaluated the re-electrification level of 30 provinces in China from 2007 to 2019 using the entropy weight method. Then, the functional data analysis method was employed to further explore the dynamic variation rule of the regional re-electrification level. The evaluation results show that the top three provinces in the mean value of the re-electrification index are Guangdong (0.628), Jiangsu (0.617), and Zhejiang (0.573). The clustering results show that there are great spatial differences in the development of electrification in China. According to the fitted function curve, China’s electrification development can be roughly divided into the following four stages: uptrend, brief decline, sharp uptrend, and slight and steady decline. At present, China’s electrification is entering a new stage. To implement re-electrification further, the government and the power grid enterprises need to find the priority and breakthroughs under carbon emissions and environmental constraints. Our research results provide reference for the improvement of regional re-electrification levels in China.