Multidecadal Fluctuation of the Wintertime Arctic Oscillation Pattern and Its Implication

Gong, Hainan; Wang, Lin; Chen, Wen; Nath, Debashis

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-17-0530.1

Cited by 40 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 42 publications

(64 reference statements)

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“…Thus, a reasonable projection of the multidecadal changes of AO should be helpful to predict a more realistic SAT change in the NEA on the time scale of 30-50 years. Previous studies show that the circulation and SAT variations in the SEA are less affected by AO (e.g., Gong et al, 2017;Gong, Wang, Chen, & Nath, 2018;Gong, Wang, Zhou, et al, 2018;He et al, 2017), and thus, the reasons for decreasing SLP trend and corresponding increasing SAT in the SEA including the TP need to be further investigated in future studies. It is noted that the time period analyzed in this study is 40 years, and thus, to what extent internal variability contributes to the SAT trend in East Asia in a longer or shorter time scale should be further investigated in the future.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Attribution of the East Asian Winter Temperature Trends During 1979–2018: Role of External Forcing and Internal Variability

Gong

Wang

Chen

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Attributing the surface air temperature (SAT) trends at regional scale to internally generated and externally forced components is a major challenge. Based on the observations and ensemble simulations of climate models, we apply a “dynamical adjustment” methodology to estimate quantitatively the contribution of the internal and forced dynamic and thermodynamic components to the East Asian winter SAT trends during 1979–2018. The observed winter SAT trends are strongly influenced by internal variability, especially in the northern East Asia (NEA). The internal component of observed SAT trends is largely dynamically induced, whereas the forced component is controlled by thermodynamics. The internally generated variability offsets the forced warming by more than 70% in the NEA, leading to a weak observed warming in the NEA. In contrast, internal contributions are small in the southern East Asia. The internally generated SAT changes in the NEA are closely tied to the multidecadal changes of Arctic Oscillation.

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Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Attribution of the East Asian Winter Temperature Trends During 1979–2018: Role of External Forcing and Internal Variability

Gong

Wang

Chen

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Although many studies have reported that the AO can influence regional temperature, these influences may not be stable [25][26][27][28][29][30]. For example, Li et al [26] found that the link between the winter AO and an East Asian winter monsoon index experienced a significant interdecadal change during past decades.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multidecadal Changes in the Influence of the Arctic Oscillation on the East Asian Surface Air Temperature in Boreal Winter

2019

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The time-varying influences of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the concurrent East Asian surface air temperature (EAT) are investigated based on JRA-55 reanalysis data. Results reveal that there are multidecadal variations in the influences of wintertime AO on the EAT during 1958–2018. Before the mid-1980s, the impact of winter AO on the simultaneous EAT is weak and confined northward of 40° N over East Asia. After the mid-1980s, by contrast, the winter AO’s influence is stronger and can extend southward of 25° N over East Asia. The multidecadal variations of the winter AO–EAT relationship are mainly modulated by the magnitudes of the North Pacific center of the winter AO. During the periods with strong North Pacific center of the winter AO, in association with the positive phase of the winter AO, the low-level southeasterly anomalies on the west side of the anticyclone over North Pacific bring warm air from the ocean to East Asia and lead to a significant winter AO–EAT relationship. In contrast, the southerly anomalies are weak and even reversed to northerly over the coast of East Asia during the periods with weak North Pacific center of winter AO, which confines the influence of winter AO on northern East Asia and lead to an insignificant winter AO–EAT relationship. Our finding provides new insight into the understanding of the decadal changes of AO’s impacts on the regional climate.

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“…Therefore, the North Pacific circulation variability may play a role in the intensity of the Kuroshio anticyclone. Previous studies have pointed out that the Aleutian Low (AL) is the dominant variability of atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific, which has a potential connection with the atmospheric circulation variability over other midlatitude regions [26,35,36]. Therefore, we tried to understand whether the AL can modulate the influence of ENSO on the circulation variability over the Kuroshio Extension region.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recently Strengthened Influence of ENSO on the Wintertime East Asian Surface Air Temperature

2019

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Previous studies have indicated that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts a significant influence on the East Asian winter climate. This study reveals an interdecadal strengthening of the connection between ENSO and the East Asian surface air temperature (EAT) connection around the late 1990s and investigates the reason for this change. Before the late 1990s, the influence of ENSO on the EAT was weak, and the ENSO-related southerly wind anomalies were confined to the south of 30° N of East Asia. After the late 1990s, by contrast, ENSO’s influence became stronger and capable of extending northward to 50° N of East Asia. The decadal strengthening of the link between ENSO and EAT is primarily modulated by the magnitudes of the ENSO-related Kuroshio anticyclone. The intensity of the Kuroshio anticyclone contributes more than 50% of the variance of the oscillational ENSO–EAT variability. Further investigation indicates that the recovered magnitude of the Kuroshio anticyclone after the late 1990s has been closely tied to the eastward shrinking of the Aleutian Low (AL) pattern, which has weakened the link of atmospheric circulation between the AL and Kuroshio Extension region. Therefore, the offset effect of the AL-induced negative (positive) sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies on the El Niño (La Niña)-induced positive (negative) SLP anomalies over the Kuroshio Extension has also been weakened, which has facilitated the recovery of the significant influence of ENSO on the EAT.

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Multidecadal Fluctuation of the Wintertime Arctic Oscillation Pattern and Its Implication

Cited by 40 publications

References 42 publications

Attribution of the East Asian Winter Temperature Trends During 1979–2018: Role of External Forcing and Internal Variability

Attribution of the East Asian Winter Temperature Trends During 1979–2018: Role of External Forcing and Internal Variability

Multidecadal Changes in the Influence of the Arctic Oscillation on the East Asian Surface Air Temperature in Boreal Winter

Recently Strengthened Influence of ENSO on the Wintertime East Asian Surface Air Temperature

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