Attribution of the East Asian Winter Temperature Trends During 1979–2018: Role of External Forcing and Internal Variability

Gong, Hainan; Wang, Lin; Chen, Wen; Wu, Renguang

doi:10.1029/2019gl084154

Cited by 31 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 32 publications

(54 reference statements)

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“…In this situation, the surface anticyclone moves southward, which facilitates the outbreak of cold surge. Given the close relationship between the winter AO and the simultaneous Northern Hemispheric temperature, some studies suggested that the interdecadal changes of AO's phases may modulate the recent temperature trends of the Northern Hemisphere, including northern East Asia [24].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multidecadal Changes in the Influence of the Arctic Oscillation on the East Asian Surface Air Temperature in Boreal Winter

2019

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The time-varying influences of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the concurrent East Asian surface air temperature (EAT) are investigated based on JRA-55 reanalysis data. Results reveal that there are multidecadal variations in the influences of wintertime AO on the EAT during 1958–2018. Before the mid-1980s, the impact of winter AO on the simultaneous EAT is weak and confined northward of 40° N over East Asia. After the mid-1980s, by contrast, the winter AO’s influence is stronger and can extend southward of 25° N over East Asia. The multidecadal variations of the winter AO–EAT relationship are mainly modulated by the magnitudes of the North Pacific center of the winter AO. During the periods with strong North Pacific center of the winter AO, in association with the positive phase of the winter AO, the low-level southeasterly anomalies on the west side of the anticyclone over North Pacific bring warm air from the ocean to East Asia and lead to a significant winter AO–EAT relationship. In contrast, the southerly anomalies are weak and even reversed to northerly over the coast of East Asia during the periods with weak North Pacific center of winter AO, which confines the influence of winter AO on northern East Asia and lead to an insignificant winter AO–EAT relationship. Our finding provides new insight into the understanding of the decadal changes of AO’s impacts on the regional climate.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multidecadal Changes in the Influence of the Arctic Oscillation on the East Asian Surface Air Temperature in Boreal Winter

2019

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“…This dynamically induced warming in response to atmospheric circulation changes has been regarded as an essential reason for the rapid wintertime warming over northern Eurasia and North America during the recent decades (e.g., Bracco et al, ; Hurrell, ; Wallace et al, ). Previous studies indicated that the internal (or unforced) induced temperature trends over regional or global land are largely caused by the internal atmospheric dynamics (e.g., Deser et al, , , ; Gong et al, ). Thus, it is critical to quantify the contributions of internal dynamics to the recent temperature trends and their temporal evolutions during recent decades.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One is based on the partial least squares regression (Smoliak et al, ; Wallace et al, ) and the other is based on constructed circulation analogs (CCA, Deser et al, ). Despite the different algorithms, the results of dynamical adjustment are generally similar using these two methods (e.g., Deser et al, ; Gong et al, ; Smoliak et al, ). It should be noted that the CCA method has an advantage compared to partial least squares regression in that the analog weights can be applied to any field, including the sea level pressure (SLP) field itself and unforced fields.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time‐Varying Contribution of Internal Dynamics to Wintertime Land Temperature Trends Over the Northern Hemisphere

Gong

Wang

Chen

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Understanding the contribution of internal dynamics to recently observed land temperature trends is a challenge. In particular, the time-varying contributions of internal dynamics to these changes are poorly understood. Here, we apply a "dynamical adjustment" method to quantitatively estimate the time-varying contribution of the internal dynamics to the wintertime land surface air temperature (SAT) trends over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during 1961-2018. The observed wintertime land SAT trends over the NH are strongly influenced by internal dynamical processes, especially over the Eurasian continent. The internal dynamically induced SAT trends contribute more than 60%, 40%, and 70% of total warming during the first 30 years of 1961-1990 over the NH, North America, and Eurasian continent, respectively. These ratios decrease to about 20% with the extension of time period to 1961-2018. The time-varying contributions of internal dynamics analogs to the multidecadal fluctuations of the Arctic Oscillation.

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“…It is likely that the interdecadal enhancement of the EAWM since the beginning of the 21st century has also been influenced by the internal variability of the climate system. Indeed, Gong et al 40 suggested that the SAT trends in northern East Asia during 1979-2018 were strongly influenced by internal variabilities that were closely tied to multidecadal-scale changes in the Arctic Oscillation (AO).…”

Section: Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and associated extratropical–tropical interaction: a review

Chen

2021

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

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The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is one of the most important climate systems during boreal winter. It has a large meridional extent and provides a vital bridge between the mid-to-high latitudes and the tropics. This paper reviews the latest research on the climate variability of the EAWM, with particular emphasis on the associated processes of extratropical-tropical interaction. Some new results have been achieved in understanding the variation of the EAWM on interdecadal, interannual, and intraseasonal time scales, such as the interdecadal strengthening in the early 21st century, the unstable impact of El Niño-South Oscillation (ENSO) on the EAWM, and the intraseasonal strong cold events in East Asia. In addition, understanding of the extratropical-tropical interactions related to the EAWM has improved in several aspects, including the impacts of the EAWM on ENSO-related climate effects, and the variation of regional Hadley circulation over the western Pacific and its climate impacts in the Asia-Australia region. Moreover, recent work has systematically evaluated the capacity of climate models to simulate the EAWM, including its climatology, interannual to interdecadal variations, and its relationship with ENSO. Finally, some scientific issues regarding our understanding of the EAWM are proposed for future investigation.

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Attribution of the East Asian Winter Temperature Trends During 1979–2018: Role of External Forcing and Internal Variability

Cited by 31 publications

References 32 publications

Multidecadal Changes in the Influence of the Arctic Oscillation on the East Asian Surface Air Temperature in Boreal Winter

Multidecadal Changes in the Influence of the Arctic Oscillation on the East Asian Surface Air Temperature in Boreal Winter

Time‐Varying Contribution of Internal Dynamics to Wintertime Land Temperature Trends Over the Northern Hemisphere

Climate variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and associated extratropical–tropical interaction: a review

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