Multi-Source Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard Assessment and Mapping for Huaraz, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Frey, Holger; Huggel, Christian; Chisolm, Rachel E.; Baer, Patrick; McArdell, Brian W.; Cochachín, Alejo; Portocarrero, César

doi:10.3389/feart.2018.00210

Cited by 55 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Outburst flood simulation can be a cost-effective tool for hazard assessment and mitigation planning in mountainous terrain (e.g., Allen et al, 2016;Bajracharya et al, 2007;Frey et al, 2018;Kougkoulos et al, 2018;Schneider et al, 2014;Shrestha et al, 2010;Wang et al, 2018). However, most such modeling has been limited to relatively small events (but c.f., Risley et al, 2006).…”

Section: 1029/2018jf004778mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Geomorphic Impact of Outburst Floods: Integrating Observations and Numerical Simulations of the 2000 Yigong Flood, Eastern Himalaya

2019

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Outburst floods in mountainous landscapes traverse complex topography and interact with the channel and valley walls, producing intense flow hydraulics that drive geomorphic change and impact people and infrastructure. Evidence of modern and ancient outburst floods is scattered around the eastern Himalaya, but hydraulics related to these geomorphic features are uncharacterized, limiting our understanding of the role of large floods in long‐term evolution of the region. Here we combine remote and field observations of the 2000 Yigong River landslide‐dam outburst flood with 2‐D numerical flood simulations using the software GeoClaw. Modeling results agree with field evidence to the extent that we judge the simulated hydraulics to be relevant to flood hazard and geomorphic investigations. Results show that the hydraulics of outburst floods through rugged topography differ from those expected for nonflood flows, in magnitude and in the spatial patterns of flow speed, direction, and shear stress. The flood produced sustained high bed shear stresses capable of plucking meter‐scale blocks immediately downstream of breach, in the steep Tsangpo Gorge, and in isolated locations associated with valley constrictions. Simulated shear stresses suggest that outburst floods deposited numerous kilometer‐scale boulder bars observed along the flood pathway, armoring the bed, increasing channel roughness, and inhibiting incision in locations that would not be predicted for nonflood flows. Our findings highlight the potential for different magnitude flows to promote not only different amounts, but also different patterns of bedrock erosion, with implications for the role of prehistoric megafloods in the topographic evolution of the eastern Himalaya.

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Section: 1029/2018jf004778mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Geomorphic Impact of Outburst Floods: Integrating Observations and Numerical Simulations of the 2000 Yigong Flood, Eastern Himalaya

2019

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“…According to the recent lake inventory and GLOF susceptibility assessment , Palcacocha is among the lakes susceptible to produce a GLOF, which could be triggered by rapid landslide processes from surrounding moraines, ice and rock slopes. Detailed study of potential landslide-induced outburst flood was performed by and flood and inundation hazard modelling for Huaraz was published by (Somos-Valenzuela et al, 2016) and (Frey et al, 2018), suggesting a decreasing hazard level if 150 the water level is lowered. The population of Huaraz has increased from approximately 12,000 residents at the time of the 1941 GLOF to about 140,000 today, with tens of thousands inhabiting the path that the 1941 followed along the Quillcay River.…”

Section: Lake Palcacocha 105mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To assess how GLOF hazard at lake Palcacocha translates into flood hazard in the city of Huaraz we draw on numerical mass flow simulations by (Frey et al, 2018) and (Somos-Valenzuela et al, 2016), who modeled different scenarios of avalanches impacting the lake and producing dam overtopping waves and downstream propagating floods (see Suppl. Material).…”

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Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of Lake Palcacocha, Peru

Huggel¹,

Carey²,

Emmer³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Evidence of observed negative impacts on natural and human systems from anthropogenic climate change is increasing. However, human systems in particular are dynamic and influenced by multiple drivers, and hence identifying an anthropogenic climate signal is challenging. Here we analyze the case of lake Palcacocha in the Andes of Peru which offers a representative model for other glacier lakes and related risks around the world because it features a dynamic evolution of flood risk driven by physical and socio-economic factors and processes. Furthermore, it is the object of a prominent climate litigation case where a local Peruvian citizen sued a large German energy producer over risk of flooding from lake Palcacocha. Adopting a conceptual model of cascading impacts and multiple drivers of risk we first study climatic and other geophysical drivers of flood risk. We find that an anthropogenic signal related to greenhouse gas emissions is traceable. In parallel, flood risk has been strongly shaped (and increased) by interacting socio-economic, institutional and cultural processes over the past decades. The case raises important questions of responsibility for flood risk of global and local agents which, however, are difficult to address in cases like Palcacocha where we reveal a complex network of interlinked global, national and local drivers. Following from this we outline a normative framework with a differentiated perspective on responsibility, implying that global emitters commit to support strengthening capacities in affected regions and localities, and local institutions and societies engage in local risk reduction measures and policies.

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“…Further research is also needed to quantify how climate change may exacerbate or alter elements and connections within cascading hazards chains over HMA. In addition to improving our understanding of these impacts, it is vital to also work with national and local governments and local communities to communicate the science being developed (e.g., Frey et al, 2018). Improved knowledge of these processes will support creation of actionable DSSs and development plans that ultimately will help to build resilience of cascading hazard impacts at the local level.…”

Section: Risk Assessment and Future Changementioning

confidence: 99%

The State of Remote Sensing Capabilities of Cascading Hazards Over High Mountain Asia

et al. 2019

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Cascading hazard processes refer to a primary trigger such as heavy rainfall, seismic activity, or snow melt, followed by a chain or web of consequences that can cause subsequent hazards influenced by a complex array of preconditions and vulnerabilities. These interact in multiple ways and can have tremendous impacts on populations proximate to or downstream of these initial triggers. High Mountain Asia (HMA) is extremely vulnerable to cascading hazard processes given the tectonic, geomorphologic, and climatic setting of the region, particularly as it relates to glacial lakes. Given the limitations of in situ surveys in steep and often inaccessible terrain, remote sensing data are a valuable resource for better understanding and quantifying these processes. The present work provides a survey of cascading hazard processes impacting HMA and how these can be characterized using remote sensing sources. We discuss how remote sensing products can be used to address these process chains, citing several examples of cascading hazard scenarios across HMA. This work also provides a perspective on the current gaps and challenges, community needs, and view forward toward improved characterization of evolving hazards and risk across HMA.

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Multi-Source Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard Assessment and Mapping for Huaraz, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Cited by 55 publications

References 43 publications

The Geomorphic Impact of Outburst Floods: Integrating Observations and Numerical Simulations of the 2000 Yigong Flood, Eastern Himalaya

The Geomorphic Impact of Outburst Floods: Integrating Observations and Numerical Simulations of the 2000 Yigong Flood, Eastern Himalaya

Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of Lake Palcacocha, Peru

The State of Remote Sensing Capabilities of Cascading Hazards Over High Mountain Asia

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