Multi-scale modelling of land use change dynamics in Ecuador

Koning, G.H.J. de; Verburg, Peter H.; Veldkamp, A.; Fresco, L.O.

doi:10.1016/s0308-521x(99)00039-6

Cited by 95 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…In fact, these techniques help to identify spatial patterns and predict and/or simulate future changes or tendencies (Qi and Wu 1996, Wu 1998, de Koning et al 1999, Berling-Wolff and Wu 2004b. Models for land-use change have been developed into a powerful tool for spatial analysis, mostly oriented at (1) exploring the various mechanisms that drive land-use change and the social, economic, and spatial variables leading to change (de Koning et al 1999); (2) projecting the potential environmental and socioeconomic impacts of changes in land use (Alig 1986, McDonnell and Pickett 1993, Foresman et al 1997, Theobald et al 1997and (3) evaluating the influence of different policies and management regimes on development and land-use patterns (Bockstael et al 1996).…”

Section: Modeling Changes In Urban Land Usementioning

confidence: 99%

Revealing the Driving Forces of Mid-Cities Urban Growth Patterns Using Spatial Modeling: a Case Study of Los Ángeles, Chile

Aguayo¹,

Wiegand²,

Azócar³

et al. 2007

E&S

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ABSTRACT. City growth and changes in land-use patterns cause various important social and environmental impacts. To understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of these processes, the factors that drive urban development must be identified and analyzed, especially those factors that can be used to predict future changes and their potential environmental effects. Our objectives were to quantify the relationship between urban growth and its driving forces and to predict the spatial growth pattern based on historical land-use changes for the city of Los Ángeles in central Chile. This involved the analysis of images from 1978, 1992, and 1998 and characterization of the spatial pattern of land-use change; the construction of digital coverage in GIS; the selection of predictive variables through univariate analysis; the construction of logistic regression models using growth vs. nongrowth for 1978-1992 as the dependent variable; and the prediction of the probability of land-use change by applying the regression model to the 1992-1998 period. To investigate the influence of spatial scale, we constructed several sets of models that contained (1) only distance variables, e.g., distance to highways; (2) only scale-dependent density variables, e.g., density of urban area within a 600-m radius; (3) both distance and density variables; and (4) both distance and density variables at several spatial scales. The environmental variables were included in all models. The combination of distance and density variables at several scales is required to appropriately capture the multiscale urban growth process. The best models correctly predict ~90% of the observed land-use changes for 1992-1998. The distance to access roads, densities of the urban road system and urbanized area at various scales, and soil type were the strongest predictors of the growth pattern. Other variables were less important or not significant in explaining the urban growth process. Our approach, which combines spatial modeling tools and GIS, significantly advances the understanding of urban growth patterns, provides an important contribution to urban planning and management, and can be applied widely.

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Section: Modeling Changes In Urban Land Usementioning

confidence: 99%

Revealing the Driving Forces of Mid-Cities Urban Growth Patterns Using Spatial Modeling: a Case Study of Los Ángeles, Chile

Aguayo¹,

Wiegand²,

Azócar³

et al. 2007

E&S

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“…CLUE was developed and tested at country level for Costa Rica (Veldkamp and Fresco, 1996a,b;Schoorl et al, 1997). Since, the model has been successfully run for various countries in Latin America and Asia: Java (Verburg et al, 1999a); China (Verburg et al, 1999b); Atlantic zone of Costa Rica (Kok and Veldkamp, 2000); Ecuador (De Koning et al, 1999). It uses a (statistical) description of land use patterns and their dependency on a set of socio-economic and biophysical variables at a number of spatial resolutions.…”

Section: The Clue Modelling Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

A method and application of multi-scale validation in spatial land use models

Kok

Farrow

Veldkamp

et al. 2001

Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment

107

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The majority of the large number of existing land use models lack a proper validation, often because of data problems. Moreover, despite recognition of the necessity to incorporate a multi-scale analysis, scale dependencies are normally not considered during validation. In this paper, a multi-scale land use change modelling framework, conversion of land use and its effects (CLUE), is calibrated for Costa Rica and validated at five spatial resolutions for Honduras and Costa Rica. Both countries experienced locally very strong actual land use changes. Calibration runs show that the model is very sensitive to changes in the autonomous development parameter, which defines the influence of the finest resolution. Validation results are very satisfactory for both countries. Especially, changes in major land use types are reproduced with the model. Changes in localised land use types are more difficult to project. The magnitude of gains and magnitude of losses are slightly underestimated in all cases. The multi-scale validation demonstrates that results improve strongly, and exponentially, with decreasing spatial resolution. Strong reduction of the number of observations results in a correlation between actual and modelled changes that approximates the perfect value of 1. The study demonstrates that the CLUE modelling framework can reproduce changes as they took place in Central America in the 1970s and 1980s, and shows how conclusions can differ depending on the scale at which validation is performed.

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“…It has been argued that land-use policies, deforestation, urbanization, and the movement of people are the root causes of degradation in this ecoregion [40]. The conservation concerns arising from this, and the compromised ability of the páramo to provide ecosystem benefits [28,[40][41][42] at local to regional scales, has led the Ecuador Ministry of Environment to establish the SocioPáramo Program, as part of the Socio Bosque Program [43] as a way of trying to conserve the remaining forests in the páramo [44].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land‐Use and Land‐Cover Change in the Páramo of South‐Central Ecuador, 1979–2014

Ross

Fildes

Millington

2017

Land

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Land use and land cover were mapped between 3500 and 5000 meters above sea level m.a.s.l. in the Río Chambo basin in south-central Ecuador from Landsat MSS, TM, ETM and OLI imagery acquired between 1979 and 2014. The area mapped has been dominated by páramo and a variety of agricultural land uses since 1979. The main land-use transitions have been from páramo to agriculture, native forest to páramo and agriculture, and agriculture back to páramo. Significant areas of páramo have remained unchanged over the 35-year period analyzed, while the area of native forest has declined and that of bare soil increased. Plantations of non-native timber species increased from 1979 to 1999, but their area has now declined. Most land-use transformations have occurred at lower elevations in the 3500-5000 m.a.s.l. range. This is particularly the case for the loss of native forest and the degradation of páramo and agriculture to areas of bare (eroded) soils. A drivers-based approach revealed that these land-use transformations were related to import substitution and afforestation policies geared toward internal markets, exports and environmental conservation.

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Multi-scale modelling of land use change dynamics in Ecuador

Cited by 95 publications

References 27 publications

Revealing the Driving Forces of Mid-Cities Urban Growth Patterns Using Spatial Modeling: a Case Study of Los Ángeles, Chile

Revealing the Driving Forces of Mid-Cities Urban Growth Patterns Using Spatial Modeling: a Case Study of Los Ángeles, Chile

A method and application of multi-scale validation in spatial land use models

Land‐Use and Land‐Cover Change in the Páramo of South‐Central Ecuador, 1979–2014

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