A method and application of multi-scale validation in spatial land use models

Kok, Kasper; Farrow, Andrew; Veldkamp, A.; Verburg, Peter H.

doi:10.1016/s0167-8809(01)00186-4

Cited by 107 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…However, validation could still contribute to an assessment of the validity and uncertainty in the modeling procedure. Although different versions of the CLUE model have been validated with good results in different applications (Kok et al 2001;Verburg et al 2002;Pontius et al 2006), the validity of a model is mainly determined by the case study specific characteristics and the quality of the input data. Therefore, a proper validation of the model simulations in this study can only be based on European land use data.…”

Section: Landscape Level Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use

2007

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Europe's rural areas are expected to witness massive and rapid changes in land use due to changes in demography, global trade, technology and enlargement of the European Union. Changes in demand for agricultural products and agrarian production structure are likely to have a large impact on landscape quality and the value of natural areas. Most studies address these changes either from a macro-economic perspective focusing on changes in the agricultural sector or from a local perspective by analyzing recent changes in landscapes for small case studies. This paper describes a methodology in which a series of models has been used to link global level developments influencing land use to local level impacts. It is argued that such an approach is needed to properly address the processes at different scales that give rise to the land use dynamics in Europe. An extended version of the global economic model (GTAP) and an integrated assessment model (IMAGE) are used to calculate changes in demand for agricultural areas at the country level while a spatially explicit land use change model (CLUE-s) was used to translate these demands to land use patterns at 1 km 2 resolution. The global economic model ensures an appropriate treatment of macro-economic, demographic and technology developments and changes in agricultural and trade policies influencing the demand and supply for land use related products while the integrated assessment model accounts for changes in productivity as result of climate change and global land allocation. The land use change simulations at a high spatial resolution make use of country specific driving factors that influence the spatial patterns of land use, accounting for the spatial variation in the biophysical and socio-economic environment. Results indicate the large impact abandonment of agricultural land and urbanization may have on future European landscapes. Such results have the potential to support discussions on the future of the rural area and identify hot-spots of landscape change that need specific consideration. The high spatial and thematic resolution of the results allows the assessment of impacts of these changes on different environmental indicators, such as carbon sequestration and biodiversity. The global assessment allows, at the same time, to account for the tradeoffs between impacts in Europe and effects outside Europe. JEL Classification

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Section: Landscape Level Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use

2007

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“…For example, previous accuracy assessments have largely been conducted by simply calculating the overall value of a selected accuracy metric [5]. With a growing complexity of spatially explicit models and a comparative shortage of existing data, the level of uncertainties of spatially explicit modeling and forecasting will undoubtedly increase [6][7][8].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Accuracy assessments and uncertainty analysis of spatially explicit modeling for land use/cover change and urbanization: A case in Beijing metropolitan area

Zhang

Zhou

et al. 2009

Sci. China Earth Sci.

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Spatially explicit modeling plays a vital role in land use/cover change and urbanization research as well as resources management; however, current models lack proper validation and fail to incorporate uncertainty into the formulation of model predictions. Consequently, policy makers and the general public may develop opinions based on potentially misleading research, which fails to allow for truly informed decisions. Here we use an uncertainty strategy of spatially explicit modeling combined with the series statistic of Kappa index for location and quantity to estimate the uncertainty of future predications and to determine model accuracy. We take the Beijing metropolitan area as an example to demonstrate the uncertainty in extrapolations of predictive land use change and urban sprawl with spatially explicit modeling at multiple resolutions. The sensitivity of scale effects is also discussed. The results show that an improvement in specification of location is more helpful in increasing accuracy as compared to an improvement in the specification of quantity at fine spatial resolutions. However, the spatial scale has great effects on modeling accuracy and correct due to chance tends to increase as resolution becomes coarser. The results allow us to understand the uncertainty when using spatially explicit models for land-use change or urbanization estimates. Spatially explicit models have various applications in land resources management, urban planning, and metropolitan environmental protection, including the development of land cover or vegetation and predictive surface maps. However, the direct application of these models is meaningless without informed approaches to model development and the ability to assess the accuracy of model predictions.In the absence of incisive model development and error analysis, spatially explicit models may be applied in ways that confound, rather than illuminate, our understanding of land cover changes or urbanization processes [1]. In the past decades, spatially explicit models have received much attention by researchers. More recently, many land use models have been developed; cellular automata based model and

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“…ere was scant precedence to inform expectations about model accuracy, or at what levels of spatial, behavioral, or temporal resolution to validate the system at. It was clear that a multiscale approach was required, as each of the primary systems -the economy, land use, and the transport system -evolved at different rates and were measured at different scales (Kok et al 2001).…”

Section: Model Assessment and Acceptance Testingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oregon's transportation and land use model integration program: A retrospective

Donnelly

2018

JTLU

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An ambitious and innovative integrated land use-transport modeling system has been developed in Oregon over the past two decades. is work, completed under the Transportation and Land Use Model Integration Program (TLUMIP), included the development of two generations of models and the data required to build and use them and spawned the development of two others that have continued independently. An outreach program and collaborative development of freight data and forecasts were also included, as well as system testing and applications. A brief description of the motivation behind TLUMIP and the resulting modeling systems are presented. Perhaps more interesting is the story behind the models, describing several major model design, institutional, and methodology issues that were overcome. Using an integrated model in practice also entailed addressing a wider range of analytical requirements and stakeholder expectations about usability, accuracy, and extensibility than typically considered in academic pursuits. e key lessons learned through development and use of the models are discussed, with the hope that they will inform the development of similar large-scale modeling systems.

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A method and application of multi-scale validation in spatial land use models

Cited by 107 publications

References 26 publications

A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use

A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use

Accuracy assessments and uncertainty analysis of spatially explicit modeling for land use/cover change and urbanization: A case in Beijing metropolitan area

Oregon's transportation and land use model integration program: A retrospective

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