Multi-outputs Gaussian process for predicting Burkina Faso COVID-19 spread using correlations from the weather parameters

Zio, Souleymane; Lamien, Bernard; Tiemounou, Sibiri; Adaman, Yoda; Tougri, Inoussa; Beidari, Mohamed; Boris, Ouedraogo W Y S

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2022.06.006

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Additionally, several variants of interest have been observed for the COVID-19 disease. The recent models now consider quarantine and social distancing [ 40 , 41 ], weather [ 42 ], epidemic waves [ 43 , 44 ], or vaccination [ 40 , 45 ]. The presented results are still of high importance as these observed primary characteristics can be used to propose a better follow-up and understanding of the disease spread in Burkina Faso as well as in other African countries.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Two years and a half after the apparition of the disease, the world has experienced several epidemic phases, which were called waves. These waves are attributed to seasons and the apparition of several variants of concern [ 42 , 47 , 48 ]. Even though the definition of these waves is not clear, the West African region is considered to have passed through four major ones.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This was 2.5% of the cases in the ECOWAS region. The authors proposed models through all these waves [ 42 , 49 ]. However, we found it useful to insist on the absolute early moment of the introduction of the disease where the trend is not due to multiple factors yet.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimation of the Serial Interval and the Effective Reproductive Number of COVID-19 Outbreak Using Contact Data in Burkina Faso, a Sub-Saharan African Country

Somda

Ouédraogo

Paré

et al. 2022

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

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The COVID-19 outbreak has spread all around the world in less than four months. However, the pattern of the epidemic was different according to the countries. We propose this paper to describe the transmission network and to estimate the serial interval and the reproductive number of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Burkina Faso, a Sub-Saharan African country. Data from the COVID-19 response team was analyzed. Information on the 804 first detected cases were pulled together. From contact tracing information, 126 infector-infectee pairs were built. The principal infection clusters with their index cases were observed, principally the two major identified indexes in Burkina. However, the generations of infections were usually short (less than four). The serial interval was estimated to follow a gamma distribution with a shape parameter 1.04 (95% credibility interval: 0.69–1.57) and a scale parameter of 5.69 (95% credibility interval: 3.76–9.11). The basic reproductive number was estimated at 2.36 (95% confidence interval: 1.46–3.26). However, the effective reproductive number decreases very quickly, reaching a minimum value of 0.20 (95% confidence interval: 0.06–0.34). Estimated parameters are made available to monitor the outbreak in Sub-Saharan African countries. These show serial intervals like in the other continents but less infectiousness.

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