Multi-Agent Simulation of Individuals’ Escape in the Urban Rainstorm Context Based on Dynamic Recognition-Primed Decision Model

Abstract

The urban rainstorm can evolve into a serious emergency, generally characterized by high complexity, uncertainty, and time pressure. It is often difficult for individuals to find the optimal response strategy due to limited information and time constraints. Therefore, the classical decision-making method based on the “infinite rationality” assumption is sometimes challenging to reflect the reality. Based on the recognition-primed decision (RPD) model, a dynamic RPD (D-RPD) model is proposed in this paper. The D-RPD model assumes that decision-makers can gain experience in the escaping process, and the risk perception of rainstorm disasters can be regarded as a Markov process. The experience of recent attempts would contribute more in decision-making. We design the agent according to the D-RPD model, and employ a multi-agent system (MAS) to simulate individuals’ decisions in the context of a rainstorm. Our results show that experience helps individuals to perform better when they escape in the rainstorm. Recency acts as a one of the key elements in escaping decision making. We also find that filling the information gap between individuals and real-time disaster would help individuals to perform well, especially when individuals tend to avoid extreme decisions.

MAS-Based Interaction Simulation within Asymmetric Information on Emergency Management of Urban Rainstorm Disaster

“…For deepening our previous study on human reaction in disaster, we followed the previous MAS modelling on rainstorm relief [38,39]. Yang et al analysed the efficiency of disaster relief by considering the crowd psychology of residents and diverse density distribution of relief settlement.…”

“…Alsubaie et al [36] constructed a disaster response plan based on supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems. Modelling by multi-agent system (MAS) has been a common tendency for the operation of socialeconomic system under changing natural conditions [37], like evacuation route choice of pedestrians in an urban rainstorm [38,39].…”

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“…The RPDM is a prominent decision model developed by Klein (1989). It has remained relevant over time and is still popular in its applications to decision‐making in a variety of domains today (Hu et al, 2018; Neville et al, 2017; Yang et al, 2020). The RPDM proposes that decisions are made through the recognition of critical information and prior knowledge (Klein, 1989; Klein et al, 1993).…”

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“…As a consequence, even effective water management schedules are often insufficiently implemented or fail to deliver the expected performance timely. This is fatal for flood contingency management, which emphasizes the prime time for prevention and control (Judi et al, 2011; Q. Yang et al, 2020).…”