Multi-agent modeling and simulation of an Aedes aegypti mosquito population

Almeida, Sandro Jerônimo de; Ferreira, Ricardo; Eiras, Álvaro Eduardo; Obermayr, Robin P.; Geier, Martin

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.04.021

Cited by 69 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…aegypti is the lack of adequate data for validation. Most models seek to represent the temporal dynamic response to climate and endogenous forces (Focks et al, 1993;Ferreira and Yang, 2003;Williams et al, 2013), while others consider the spatial-temporal dynamic by introducing dispersal mechanisms (Otero, Schweigmann and Solari, 2008;Magori et al, 2009;Almeida et al, 2010).…”

Section: Population Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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2018

Safety Assessment of Transgenic Organisms in the Environment, Volume 8

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This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of OECD member countries.This document, as well as any data and any map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.Please cite this publication as: OECD (2018) The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.Photo credits: Cover © Maks Ershov.Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm. © OECD 2018You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of the source and copyright owner(s) is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to rights@oecd.org. Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall be addressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at info@copyright.com or the Centre francais d'exploitation du droit de copie (CFC) at contact@cfcopies.com. FOREWORD │ 3SAFETY ASSESSMENTOF TRANSGENIC ORGANISMSIN THE ENVIRONMENT, VOLUME 8 © OECD 2018 ForewordModern biotechnologies are applied to plants species (crops, flowers, trees), animals and micro-organisms. The safety of the resulting transgenic organisms when released in the environment for their use in agriculture, forestry, the food and feed industry or for other applications represents a challenging issue. Genetically engineered products are rigorously assessed by their developers during their elaboration, and by governments when ready for release, to ensure high safety standards. This remains essential with new biotechnology developments using insects to fight against disease outbreaks: engineered mosquitoes need to be evaluated through a scientifically sound approach to risk/safety assessment that will inform biosafety regulators and support the decision concerning the release of these novel organisms in the environment.The OECD offers a long-standing recognised expertise in biosafety and contributes to facilitating an harmonised approach. The OECD's Working Group on Harmonisation of Regulatory Oversight in Biotechnology (WG-HROB) was established in 1995. The WG-HROB gathers national authorities responsible for the environmental risk/safety assessment of products of modern biotechnology in OECD countries and other economies. International organisations and experts involved in biosafety activities are a...

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Section: Population Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Abbreviations and acronyms

2018

Safety Assessment of Transgenic Organisms in the Environment, Volume 8

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“…De tels agents sont parfaitement adaptatifs à leur milieu ; leurs Quelles sont les aires de dispersion des moustiques dans différents contextes urbains ? En apportant des réponses à ce type de question, la simulation permet d'expérimen-ter diverses stratégies de contrôle vectoriel (Almeida et al, 2010).…”

Section: La Simulation Pour La Prospective Territoriale Des Risques Dunclassified

La dengue, maladie complexe

2015

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La diffusion et l'émergence des risques sanitaires constituent une préoccupation très présente dans les discours actuels sur la mondialisation et les changements climatiques. La dengue y occupe une place de choix depuis qu'elle a été diagnostiquée sporadiquement aux portes de l'Europe et que son vecteur fréquente une part croissante de nos territoires nationaux. Cette question souvent traitée en termes de causalité trouve dans cet article une remise en perspective extrêmement utile, montrant que le risque ne naît pas d'une succession d'événements mais bien d'une articulation complexe de facteurs. En cela, les auteurs nous proposent d'interpréter la variabilité de l'expression de la maladie comme le produit aussi bien d'interactions à l'interface natures/sociétés que d'un dialogue entre disciplines, remettant en cause tout déterminisme dans la dynamique de ce risque sanitaire. La RédactionRésumé -La dengue est une infection virale à transmission vectorielle qui touche, pour l'instant, essentiellement les pays de la zone tropicale et subtropicale. Nous développons un cadre systémique et complexe pour l'étude de cette maladie, qui permet à la fois de décomposer ses différentes entités -hôte, vecteur, virus, environnement -tout en affirmant le poids de leurs interactions dans ses dynamiques potentielles. L'étude de cette complexité systémique s'enrichit d'un cadre méthodologique qui permet d'intégrer dans un même modèle des dynamiques biologiques et sociales, dans des environnements changeants. Ce cadre de recherche implique de nouvelles pratiques, il rend indispensable une collaboration étroite des sciences sociales, environnementales, biologiques et informatiques, sans oublier l'implication des populations et des acteurs locaux de santé publique.Abstract -Dengue, a complex disease. Dengue is a widespread mosquito-borne viral infection in tropical and subtropical countries causing an estimated 500 million infections per year of which more than 20,000 result in severe disease. Since the 1970s dengue has spread and become endemic in more than 100 countries and there is concern that dengue will spread into temperate regions. The peridomestic niche of the primary mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti, results in dengue being a largely urban and periurban disease where the high population densities cause major epidemics. Although a number of risk factors have been identified at different spatial scales of analysis, their general relevance is debatable. Very local scale environmental factors can determine both the abundance of mosquitoes and their ability to transmit the virus. Thus the environmental complexity of urban settings coupled with heterogeneity in human population density yield potentially complex interactions in highly differentiated local conditions that are difficult to assess. We are developing a complex framework to enable a more tractable understanding of dengue epidemiology. This framework enables the disentanglement of actors, host, vector, virus and environment, all the while asserting the dynamic contributi...

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“…Human mobility and density play an important role not only in outbreaks but also in the maintenance of endemic estates [12][13][14][15][16]. Thus, either an strategy to reduce the impact of an outbreak or an strategy to eliminate an endemic situation should take into account these human factors [17,18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vector-borne disease risk indexes in spatially structured populations

et al. 2018

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There are economic and physical limitations when applying prevention and control strategies for urban vector borne diseases. Consequently, there are increasing concerns and interest in designing efficient strategies and regulations that health agencies can follow in order to reduce the imminent impact of viruses like Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya. That includes fumigation, abatization, reducing the hatcheries, picking up trash, information campaigns. A basic question that arise when designing control strategies is about which and where these ones should focus. In other words, one would like to know whether preventing the contagion or decrease vector population, and in which area of the city, is more efficient. In this work, we propose risk indexes based on the idea of secondary cases from patch to patch. Thus, they take into account human mobility and indicate which patch has more chance to be a corridor for the spread of the disease and which is more vulnerable, i.e. more likely to have cases?. They can also indicate the neighborhood where hatchery control will reduce more the number of potential cases. In order to illustrate the usefulness of these indexes, we run a set of numerical simulations in a mathematical model that takes into account the urban mobility and the differences in population density among the areas of a city. If we label by i a particular neighborhood, the transmission risk index (TRi) measures the potential secondary cases caused by a host in that neighborhood. The vector transmission risk index (VTRi) measures the potential secondary cases caused by a vector. Finally, the vulnerability risk index (VRi) measures the potential secondary cases in the neighborhood. Transmission indexes can be used to give geographical priority to some neighborhoods when applying prevention and control measures. On the other hand, the vulnerability index can be useful to implement monitoring campaigns or public health investment.

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Multi-agent modeling and simulation of an Aedes aegypti mosquito population

Cited by 69 publications

References 33 publications

Abbreviations and acronyms

Abbreviations and acronyms

La dengue, maladie complexe

Vector-borne disease risk indexes in spatially structured populations

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