Moving Toward a Shrinking Cities Metric: Analyzing Land Use Changes Associated with Depopulation in Flint, Michigan

Hollander, Justin B.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1585405

Cited by 49 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…In Equation (4), p(y i |λ i ) is the probability that the measured value of the response variable will be y i in the case where λ i is already known through Equation (3). In this study, however, the response variable, the number of each of the two types of vacant land, depends on the size of a residential neighborhood.…”

Section: Urban and Regional Planning Review Vol 4 2017 | 114mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The total population of the city was 197,391 in 2010 including a population of 137,300 in the urbanization promotion area (UPA), which is 31. 3 …”

Section: Urban and Regional Planning Review Vol 4 2017 | 114mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, the use of a single, comprehensive compact city model lacks empirical support (Gordon and Richardson, 2007). For example, Hollander (2010) suggests that rather than apply a general model, policies should be tailored to the specific environment or neighborhood. Considering this and recent discussion about the compact city policy in Japan (Nozawa, 2014), the approach adopted by the Japanese Government seems somewhat problematic in that it is insensitive to the specific context and conditions of all cities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

<b>Spatial Emerging Patterns of Vacant Land in a Japanese City Experiencing Urban Shrinkage</b>

Sakamoto

Iida

Yokohari

2017

URPR

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In response to the phenomenon of urban shrinkage that affects many Japanese cities, and its various associated social issues, the Japanese Government has implemented compact city policies as a part of urban planning. A compact city is characterized in Japan by dense and proximate urban areas that are linked by public transformation systems, but the feasibility of applying a single compact city model to different regional or local circumstances is susceptible. To understand the actual state of urban shrinkage, this study was aimed at examining spatial emerging patterns of vacant land in residential areas of mid-sized cities called "regional urban centers" in Japan where such patterns are still unknown. The study was conducted using a three-step procedure: a) identifying the overall trends of urban shrinkage in all Japanese regional urban centers and selecting a case study site b) constructing a detailed database of vacant land and five characteristics of the residential areas: age, orderliness, distance from the central area, convenience of public buses, and road width, and c) identifying the relations between the number of vacant lands and the characteristics of the residential areas by using a Poisson regression model. Tottori City, a regional urban center of Chugoku Region, was selected as the case study site. The results show that the convenience of public buses, one of the emphasized factors when the government made a compact city plan, had no relationship with the distribution of vacant land. It might be because Tottori residents highly depend on private cars and are little concerned with public transportations. Instead, a narrow road width appears to be one of the crucial hindrances of residential replacement. A high rate of vacant land then should be regarded not as problematic space but as a resource for reconstruction of residential areas, such as the widening of narrow roads.

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Section: Urban and Regional Planning Review Vol 4 2017 | 114mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The total population of the city was 197,391 in 2010 including a population of 137,300 in the urbanization promotion area (UPA), which is 31. 3 …”

Section: Urban and Regional Planning Review Vol 4 2017 | 114mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

<b>Spatial Emerging Patterns of Vacant Land in a Japanese City Experiencing Urban Shrinkage</b>

Sakamoto

Iida

Yokohari

2017

URPR

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“…Over time, widespread racial discrimination, seen in hiring and housing market trends, has systematically limited relocation options for many minority populations [63,64]. When a neighborhood loses jobs, minorities have fewer housing choices, further increasing the minority concentration in these areas [65]. Fee and Hartley [58] investigated demographic changes within 36 MSAs experiencing depopulation between 1980 and 2010 and found that, in spite of drops in total population density during the time, the fraction of minority residents increased mostly within 10 miles of the CBD [58].…”

Section: Variable Selectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The national residential housing vacancies and homeownership report by the Census Bureau [66] found that the rental housing vacancy rate (6.9%) in the fourth quarter of 2016 was about four times higher than that of homeowner housing (1.8%). As Hollander [65] indicated, analysis of occupied housing unit density is an important measure of the physical changes in a city. Since neglected properties might be a sign to communities that there is a lack of neighborhood support, high vacancy rates and lower housing values in a neighborhood can increase the vacancy rates in an entire city.…”

Section: Variable Selectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Urban Vacancy Dynamics in a Shrinking City: A Land Transformation Model

Lee

Newman

2017

IJGI

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Abstract:In the past two centuries, many American urban areas have experienced significant expansion in both populating and depopulating cities. The pursuit of bigger, faster, and more growth-oriented planning parallels a situation where municipal decline has also been recognized as a global epidemic. In recent decades many older industrial cities have experienced significant depopulation, job loss, economic decline, and massive increases in vacant and abandoned properties due primarily to losses in industry and relocating populations. Despite continuous economic decline and depopulation, many of these so-called 'shrinking cities' still chase growth-oriented planning policies, due partially to inabilities to accurately predict future urban growth/decline patterns. This capability is critical to understanding land use alternation patterns and predicting future possible scenarios for the development of more proactive land use policies dealing with urban decline and regeneration. In this research, the city of Chicago, Illinois, USA is used as a case site to test an urban land use change model that predicts urban decline in a shrinking city, using vacant land as a proxy. Our approach employs the Land Transformation Model (LTM), which combines Geographic Information Systems and artificial neural networks to forecast land use change. Results indicate that the LTM is a good resource to simulate urban vacant land changes. Mobility and housing market conditions seem to be the primary variables contributing to decline.

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The rural–urban interface: Rural and small town growth at the metropolitan fringe

Lichter

Brown

Parisi

2020

Population Space and Place

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Urbanisation and the expansion of US metropolitan regions have blurred the spatial and social boundaries that are typically thought to separate urban from rural America. Our objective is to highlight both the conceptual limitations of the so‐called rural–urban divide, while also recognising the spatial interdependence of America's ‘rural’ and ‘urban’ people and places. Our analyses nest rural and urban population and places within metropolitan and non‐metropolitan counties, while acknowledging that rural places often grow into urban places (i.e., urbanisation) and that many non‐metropolitan counties are reclassified over time as metropolitan areas (i.e., metropolitanisation). Analyses show that most rural people—as officially defined—now live in metropolitan counties, often at the fringe. Reclassification to metropolitan areas was a major reason why. Small towns and thinly settled areas at the metropolitan fringe have grown rapidly since 1980 and have become increasingly integrated within metropolitan areas nationally. The heuristic value of our analytical approach at the national level is further demonstrated at the local‐area level, in Chicago and Atlanta, metro areas with very different demographic and economic histories. Our study highlights the dynamic and multidimensional nature of spatial boundaries (i.e., urban–rural and metro–nonmetro) that both separate and connect rural and urban areas in the United States. Metro–nonmetro and rural–urban boundaries are neither fixed nor impermeable.

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Moving Toward a Shrinking Cities Metric: Analyzing Land Use Changes Associated with Depopulation in Flint, Michigan

Cited by 49 publications

References 16 publications

<b>Spatial Emerging Patterns of Vacant Land in a Japanese City Experiencing Urban Shrinkage</b>

<b>Spatial Emerging Patterns of Vacant Land in a Japanese City Experiencing Urban Shrinkage</b>

Forecasting Urban Vacancy Dynamics in a Shrinking City: A Land Transformation Model

The rural–urban interface: Rural and small town growth at the metropolitan fringe

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