Moving from autonomous to planned adaptation in the montane forests of southeastern Australia under changing fire regimes

Abstract

Forest ecosystems and their associated natural, cultural and economic values are highly vulnerable to climate driven changes in fire regimes. A detailed knowledge of forest ecosystem responses to altered fire regimes is a necessary underpinning to inform options for adaptive responses under climate change, as well as for providing a basis for understanding how patterns of distribution of vegetation communities that comprise montane forest ecosystems may change in the future. Unplanned consequential adaptation of both natural and human systems, i.e. autonomous adaptation, will occur without planned intervention, with potentially negative impacts on ecosystem services. The persistence of forest stands under changing fire regimes and the maintenance of the ecosystem services that they provide pivot upon underlying response traits, such as the ability to resprout, that determine the degree to which composition, structure and function are likely to change. The integration of ecosystem dynamics into conceptual models and their use in exploring adaptation pathways provides options for policy makers and managers to move from autonomous to planned adaptation responses. Understanding where autonomous adaptation provides a benefit and where it proves potentially undesirable is essential to inform adaptation choices. Plausible scenarios of ecological change can be developed to improve an understanding of the nature and timing of interventions and their consequences, well before natural and human systems autonomously adapt in ways that may be detrimental to the long-term provision of ecosystem services. We explore the utility of this approach using examples from temperate montane forest ecosystems of southeastern Australia.

Frequent wildfires erode tree persistence and alter stand structure and initial composition of a fire‐tolerant sub‐alpine forest

“…; Doherty et al. ). Many of these frameworks, particularly in the Australian context, are predicated on a limitless resilience of resprouter‐type forests to rebound from single and compounded disturbances.…”

“…Numerous conceptual models are being developed to identify the impacts of frequent disturbances (Enright et al 2015) and to build ecosystem resilience into the future adaptive management of many ecosystems (Johnstone et al 2016), including our study region (Colloff et al 2016;Doherty et al 2017). Many of these frameworks, particularly in the Australian context, are predicated on a limitless resilience of resprouter-type forests to rebound from single and compounded disturbances.…”

Transforming conservation science and practice for a postnormal world

“…; Doherty et al. ). Resources to service the increasing area that requires reseeding may become prohibitive: an opportunity cost of other adaptation options forgone.…”

Co-producing ecosystem services for adapting to climate change

“…However, current management can be locked into resisting transformation owing to the community or institutional path-dependency and lack of reflexivity ( [65], p. 27). For example, climate-driven changes in fire regimes may require facilitating resprouting tree species over seeders currently favoured by forest managers and conservationists [24,66]. Encouraging landscape or regional functional diversity that underpins ecological transformation ability [25] can trade off with the persistence of current ES provided by single species or functional groups.…”