Moving down the urban hierarchy: Turning point of China’s internal migration caused by age structure and hukou system

Abstract

Internal migration is critically important in China, where the fertility rate is declining and international immigration is under strict control. This study explores the massive population movement in China, examines the migration pattern of non- hukou migrants, 2010–2015 and 2014–2015 migration patterns through the urban hierarchy of the urban system using migration trajectories derived from the 2015 One Percent Population Sample Survey. Results reveal an emerging reversal from a predominantly upward pattern (e.g. most of the net flows move to high-level cities) to a downward one (e.g. from super-large/extra-large cities to large cities) in the recent migration trend. Regional disparities are significant. An upward and eastward tendency still dominates in the western, central and northeastern regions, whereas a downward and decentralised tendency has been initiated in the eastern region. The causes for the structural change include common factors found in developed countries, such as the influence of age and life courses. The age structure of China’s population caused by the ‘one-child’ policy weakened the upward momentum and led to a strengthening downward trend in the current migration pattern. The contextual and institutional factor hukou also has a significant effect on people’s migration directions. Hukou attracts people to move up or down the hierarchy to their registered place or where they can acquire registration. The characteristics of registered migrants reflect the different criteria of cities in granting hukou.

Satellite monitoring of shrinking cities on the globe and containment solutions

“…Our quantitative experiments in China proved that accompanying the increasing number of shrinking cities, there is an out-migration trend from nonurban areas or small cities to large cities, which is also verified by traditional census data ( Mu et al., 2021 ) and emerging Internet data ( Egidi et al., 2020 ; Keuschnigg et al., 2019 ; Zhang et al., 2020 ). This is echoed with our predictions that the number of natural cities with a population of less than 10,000 will decrease by approximately 32% ( Figures S4 and S5 ).…”

Detecting spatial heterogeneity in the determinants of intercity migration in China

“…Previous investigations of Chinese migration have primarily focused on large geographical areas such as provinces, losing sight of variations among cities within the same province (Mu et al, 2021). A growing body of literature, however, has shifted attention to migration between cities (Mu et al, 2021; Wang et al, 2019; Wu et al, 2019).…”

Moving to a healthier city? An analysis from China's internal population migration

“…For example, Liu et al ( 40 ) studied the stability and change in China's geography of intercity migration based on a complex network approach, finding that the migration network is stable but also becomes significantly dispersed due to the increasing short-distance and intra-provincial migration. Mu et al ( 41 ) revealed an emerging reversal from a predominantly upward pattern (e.g., most of the net flows move to high-level cities) to a downward one (e.g., from super-large/extra-large cities to large cities).…”