Mortality statistics for the oldest-old

Abstract

The main purposes of this paper is to evaluate the quality of Canadian data among the oldest-old (80+) over the 1951-1995 period, and to compare estimations of Canadian probabilities of death based on the extinct generation method with those of other developed countries in order to ascertain whether Canada experiences a distinct low mortality profile. The evaluation of the data quality suggests that Canadian data are quite good up to the age of 100, and that the main problems concern the centenarians (overstatement of age at death and errors in census age declarations). International comparisons on the basis of two mortality indicators for the 80-99 age-interval lead to the same conclusion: Canadian mortality is lower than in most European countries. The best match is still with the United States.

The number of centenarians in Brazil: Indirect estimates based on death certificates

“…These figures are not necessarily surprising when compared to those from populations where the demographic transition started earlier. In the last 50 years, the population above age 100 has grown very fast in Canada (Bourbeau and Lebel 2000), France (Vaupel andJeune 1995, Vallin andMeslé 2001), the U.S. (Krach andVelkoff 1999, Kestenbaum andFerguson 2005), and in many other countries (Human Mortality Database 2008). High fertility levels in the past (Frias and Carvalho 1994; United Nations 2007) combined with fast declining mortality rates at older ages (Campos and Rodrigues 2004) have certainly allowed a much larger number of people to survive to the age 100 and older in Brazil.…”

Variance models of the last age interval and their impact on life expectancy at subnational scales

“…The 5% proportional error suggested by Bourbeau and Lebel (Bourbeau and Lebel 2000) could well correspond to a confidence interval coverage different from the 95% coverage that was assumed. It can be demonstrated, however, that the variance contributed by error in the last age interval population count is relatively insensitive to different levels of assumed confidence interval coverage.…”

“…(A1.10) Bourbeau and Lebel (2000) ( Table 3) provided estimates of the population error in Canadian data for the census years 1971, 1976, 1981, 1986, and 1991, for the age interval 90+, using the extinct generation method; both over-estimation and underestimation of population counts were found. Based on these data, a +/-5% proportional error in the population counts for the age interval 90+ was judged to be a reasonable approximation.…”

“…Detailed assessments of Canadian data using the 'extinct generation' method (Bourbeau and Lebel 2000) indicate a proportional population data error of approximately ±5% in the 90+ age group (cf. Appendix 1, Section 3).…”

“…For example, sparse death counts and the highest mortality rates mostly occur in the last age interval, which lead to elevated statistical variability. Data quality issues in population counts (Bourbeau and Desjardins 2007;Bourbeau and Lebel 2000;Coale and Kisker 1990;Wilmoth and Lundstrom 1996) and heterogeneity or frailty in mortality rates (Bebbington, Lai, and Zitikis 2011;Ting, Yang, and Anderson 2013;Vaupel, Manton, and Stallard 1979) could drive further increases in the variance contribution of the last age interval. There is therefore a general need to quantify and examine the variance contribution of the last age interval under different possible variance models of its corresponding demographic data, which has not previously been done.…”