The number of centenarians in Brazil: Indirect estimates based on death certificates

Gomes, Marília Miranda Forte; Turra, Cássio M.

doi:10.4054/demres.2009.20.20

Cited by 27 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 9 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Another point to highlight is the possible low quality of the data on mortality for more advanced ages in Brazil, due to the uncertainty regarding the ages reported and the imputation of absent data (Gomes & Turra, 2009;Turra, 2012). Thus, as Turra (2012, p. 164) states, "the lack of knowledge regarding the true adult mortality structure in Brazil may lead to inaccurate projections concerning the behavior of longevity in the country".…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mortality dynamics and the statutory retirement age proposal: an actuarial view

Souza

2020

Rev. contab. finanç.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper aimed to apply (dynamic and static) actuarial models to calculate the balanced contribution rates for the planned (at the minimum age) retirement benefit of the General Social Security System, based on the original and substitutive texts of the reform proposed by Michel Temer’s government. Even with the regular increases in life expectancy and the long-term nature of the analyses, national studies on social security are typically based on the static mortality hypothesis. The relevance of this study is evident due to the demographic changes, particularly the increase in life expectancy, experienced by the Brazilian population in recent decades and which put in question the sustainability of the national pension system. The use of dynamic actuarial models allows for more accurate discussions about the future of social security, besides contributing to the still scarce national literature. Static and dynamic actuarial models were applied to a representative individual, adjusting mortality tables from the United Nations covering 1950 to 2100. It was verified that the actuarially fair rates calculated by the dynamic actuarial model are typically higher than those obtained by the static model, especially for women. This difference is expected to increase as gains in life expectancy become more influenced by the reduction in mortality at more advanced ages. Moreover, if the social security reform is approved (in accordance with either the original or the substitutive text), there are indications from the dynamic model that the contributions rates currently charged would be excessive for men. In turn, these rates would be excessive for women considering the original text, and closer to the actuarially fair value considering the substitutive text. The development, disclosure, and regular updating of official dynamic tables (whether for mortality or other biometric assumptions) are also recommended.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mortality dynamics and the statutory retirement age proposal: an actuarial view

Souza

2020

Rev. contab. finanç.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…There is a possibility of poor quality information with advanced age (e.g., misreporting) among those who answered the census age questions. Furthermore, the survey imputed missing data on age, which could also affect the accuracy …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perceived poor health is positively associated with physical limitations and chronic diseases in Brazilian nonagenarians and centenarians

Sebastião

2015

Geriatrics Gerontology Int

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Poulain and Naito 2004;Caselli and Lipsi 2006;Martin et al 2012;, often identifying locations with a high prevalence of centenarians. Such apparent concentrations of centenarians may of course be a reflection of problematic data (Poulain 2011;Bennet and Garson 1983;Gomes and Turra 2009), but on the other hand, they could indeed be examples of high survivorship at older ages, even if their current mortality levels at younger and at older ages are incongruent. They could also be a chance occurrence, identified post hoc.…”

Section: Populations With Super-longevity-chance or Destiny?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Surviving to be the oldest old—destiny or chance?

Anson

2014

Populationyearbook

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Human beings have always been fascinated by super-longevity and now, as mortality declines to levels never before experienced, living to be a centenarian becomes a real, though still a rather remote, possibility. In most countries of the industrialised world the modal age at death is rising constantly and the number of centenarians is growing exponentially. A growing corpus of research is focussing on the centenarians, their particularities and the verification of their centenarian status. However, if we wish to unravel the secrets for attaining this magnificent age, we need to look beyond the centenarian communities themselves. The number of people becoming centenarians is determined by three different processes: the numbers born 100 years earlier, the probability of reaching old age and the probability of surviving old age to become a centenarian. Mortality up to age 80 and mortality beyond age 80, though loosely related, need to be treated as qualitatively different phenomena. However, there have been few studies of conditions distinguishing between populations and societies with low and high mortality at old ages. Instead, most work has focussed on identifying and carefully documenting high longevity populations, those with an unusually high number of centenarians -usually small, bounded populations -while no attention has been given to their complement, high shortivity populations, those with a lack of centenarians. In the absence of a theory of population longevity and shortivity, we cannot distinguish between populations which are genuinely different from most others, and those which are merely chance outliers. The critical question is thus 'what are the transition mechanisms'? We need to focus less on the centenarians themselves, and more on the conditions which distinguish populations with a relatively high probability of surviving from age 80 to age 100 from those with a relatively low probability of survival.

show abstract

The number of centenarians in Brazil: Indirect estimates based on death certificates

Cited by 27 publications

References 9 publications

Mortality dynamics and the statutory retirement age proposal: an actuarial view

Mortality dynamics and the statutory retirement age proposal: an actuarial view

Perceived poor health is positively associated with physical limitations and chronic diseases in Brazilian nonagenarians and centenarians

Surviving to be the oldest old—destiny or chance?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About