More than 17,000 tree species are at risk from rapid global change

Boonman, Coline C. F.; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Hoeks, Selwyn; Guo, Wen-Yong; Enquist, Brian J.; Maitner, Brian; Malhi, Yadvinder; Merow, Cory; Buitenwerf, Robert; Svenning, Jens-Christian

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-44321-9

Cited by 14 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 91 publications

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“…This is expected to negatively impact Mediterranean trees [ 115 ], decreasing suitability in established ranges and leading to die-offs or reduced forest health. The increasing frequency and intensity of fires is one of the most serious impacts and threats to forest ecosystems, mainly to the forest endemic taxa of southern and insular areas [ 116 ]. Mediterranean trees inhabiting mountainous regions face considerable risk of habitat loss under shifting climate regimes [ 16 , 45 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rising Temperatures, Falling Leaves: Predicting the Fate of Cyprus’s Endemic Oak under Climate and Land Use Change

Kougioumoutzis,

Constantinou,

Panitsa

2024

Plants

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Endemic island species face heightened extinction risk from climate-driven shifts, yet standard models often underestimate threat levels for those like Quercus alnifolia, an iconic Cypriot oak with pre-adaptations to aridity. Through species distribution modelling, we investigated the potential shifts in its distribution under future climate and land-use change scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines dispersal constraints, detailed soil characteristics, hydrological factors, and anticipated soil erosion data, offering a comprehensive assessment of environmental suitability. We quantified the species’ sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability to projected changes, conducting a preliminary IUCN extinction risk assessment according to Criteria A and B. Our projections uniformly predict range reductions, with a median decrease of 67.8% by the 2070s under the most extreme scenarios. Additionally, our research indicates Quercus alnifolia’s resilience to diverse erosion conditions and preference for relatively dry climates within a specific annual temperature range. The preliminary IUCN risk assessment designates Quercus alnifolia as Critically Endangered in the future, highlighting the need for focused conservation efforts. Climate and land-use changes are critical threats to the species’ survival, emphasising the importance of comprehensive modelling techniques and the urgent requirement for dedicated conservation measures to safeguard this iconic species.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rising Temperatures, Falling Leaves: Predicting the Fate of Cyprus’s Endemic Oak under Climate and Land Use Change

Kougioumoutzis,

Constantinou,

Panitsa

2024

Plants

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“…There have been a total of 443 tree species declared invasive by the Global Invasive Species Database (GISD) 1,2 . Countries in Sub-Saharan African Africa (SSA) have the highest number of invasive species 3 . Among the species reported in the regions, some species of acacia are listed in the land species category of 100 awful invasive alien species 4 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Invasive Acacia melanoxylon on the Forest Stand Volumes and Annual Increment of Commercial Tree Species in Two Humid Forests (Nabkoi and Timboroa Forests, Kenya)

Okoth,

Kiptoo,

Kiyiapi

et al. 2024

Res. J. For

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“…Climate-driven changes in trees' growth rate, vigor, mortality, and habitat changes were documented throughout the boreal biome [1][2][3][4]. The mortality of stands formed by conifers has been spreading over an area of several million ha in North America [5][6][7][8] and [9,10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Siberian Pine and Larch Response to Warming-Drying Climate in the Southern Boundary of Their Range

Petrov,

Kharuk,

Golyukov

et al. 2024

Forests

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Trees’ growth and areal responses to changing climate are primarily expected within the edges of the species range. Here, we compared the responses of Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour), a moisture-sensitive species, and drought-resistant larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) at the southern part of their ranges in the Siberian Mountains (the Tannu-Ola Ridge). We study the species’ growth and proportion in the forests from forest-steppe to treeline ecotone along the elevation gradient. These studies are based on radial growth index (GI) analysis and GI dependence on the climate variables. We used satellite time series to detect the land cover changes (areas of larch and Siberian pine, as well as shrubs and birch). We compared trees’ GI before and after warming “restart” in the late 1990s. Generally, GI dependence on the air temperature was negative at elevations below c. 1600 m a.s.l., whereas GI dependence on the moisture variables (precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, and soil moisture) was positive for both species. Above 1600 m, increasing air temperatures stimulated species growth, whereas the influence of moisture variables was negative (for larch) or neutral (for Siberian pine). After the warming restart, the GI of both conifers increased in moisture-sufficient high elevations and treeline ecotone, whereas within low elevations (<1300 m), the GI was stagnant or suppressed. Both species’, especially Siberian pine, negative growth dependence on air temperature and positive dependence on the moisture variables strongly increased since the warming restart. We found a risen growth dependence of both species on the soil-stored water during the previous year (September–October), which smoothed moisture stress at the beginning of the growing season. Yet both species’ growth also suffered as a result of early spring warms. We found that larch is migrating in both uphill and downhill directions, while Siberian pine is migrating uphill only. Forests loss occurred at low elevations (<1300 m), whereas forest and shrub gain occurred at high (>2000 m) ones. The upper boundary of the forests and shrubs is migrating uphill at rates of about 0.8 and 0.3 m/y, respectively. We observed a decrease in Siberian pine proportion in the forests, whereas areas of larch and birch strongly increased (by 150% and 100%, respectively), which indicates the retreat of Siberian pine from its southern habitat. We suggested afforestation of the areas of Siberian pine mortality by the drought-tolerant larch species.

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More than 17,000 tree species are at risk from rapid global change

Cited by 14 publications

References 91 publications

Rising Temperatures, Falling Leaves: Predicting the Fate of Cyprus’s Endemic Oak under Climate and Land Use Change

Rising Temperatures, Falling Leaves: Predicting the Fate of Cyprus’s Endemic Oak under Climate and Land Use Change

Influence of Invasive Acacia melanoxylon on the Forest Stand Volumes and Annual Increment of Commercial Tree Species in Two Humid Forests (Nabkoi and Timboroa Forests, Kenya)

Siberian Pine and Larch Response to Warming-Drying Climate in the Southern Boundary of Their Range

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