Rising Temperatures, Falling Leaves: Predicting the Fate of Cyprus’s Endemic Oak under Climate and Land Use Change
Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis,
Ioannis Constantinou,
Maria Panitsa
Abstract:Endemic island species face heightened extinction risk from climate-driven shifts, yet standard models often underestimate threat levels for those like Quercus alnifolia, an iconic Cypriot oak with pre-adaptations to aridity. Through species distribution modelling, we investigated the potential shifts in its distribution under future climate and land-use change scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines dispersal constraints, detailed soil characteristics, hydrological factors, and anticipated soil erosion data… Show more
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