More Persistent Summer Compound Hot Extremes Caused by Global Urbanization

Ma, Feng; Yuan, Xing

doi:10.1029/2021gl093721

Cited by 28 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 60 publications

(108 reference statements)

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“…The associated factors in each urban agglomeration in Figures 11 and 12 were calculated for days with heavy rain and light rain, respectively. It was suggested that UHI exerts substantial effects on rainfall's spatial and temporal dynamics in urban regions (K. Liu et al., 2020; F. Ma & Yuan, 2021). Therefore, we calculated the average air temperature corresponding to heavy rain days for urban and rural stations in each agglomeration (Figure 11a).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Urbanization Amplified Asymmetrical Changes of Rainfall and Exacerbated Drought: Analysis Over Five Urban Agglomerations in the Yangtze River Basin, China

et al. 2023

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Urbanization has become a prominent anthropogenic activity globally, resulting in the substantial modification of temperature and rainfall in and around urban areas. Studies also indicate that rainfall exhibits an asymmetrical shift from light to extreme rainfall, causing both floods and droughts over different parts of the globe. However, to what extent urbanization influences the asymmetrical changes in rainfall and urban drought remains understudied. Accordingly, we provided an investigation of the urbanization effects on both rainfall and drought events from both statistical and model‐based perspectives. Results showed that urbanization generally increased heavy rainfall and decreased light rainfall in the rainy season over five urban agglomerations (i.e., Yangtze River Delta [YRD], Middle Region of Yangtze River [MRYR], Chengdu‐Chongqing, Guizhou, and Yunnan) in the Yangtze River Basin during 1981–2020. Specifically, urbanization contributed 42.7% and 30.8% of the increases of heavy rainfall in MRYR and YRD while 30.6% contribution to the decrease of light rainfall. Interestingly, results suggested that the urban regions were more prone to drought due to urbanization. Nevertheless, we also found that the urbanization effects showed some variabilities across different areas due to the interactions with complex terrains and climate patterns. Further model‐based simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model confirmed our findings and helped understand the potential underlying mechanism. The current research is expected to provide scientific knowledge for better urban planning and preparedness for urbanization‐induced hazards.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Potential Mechanism Of Urbanization Effects On Rainfall and ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Urbanization Amplified Asymmetrical Changes of Rainfall and Exacerbated Drought: Analysis Over Five Urban Agglomerations in the Yangtze River Basin, China

et al. 2023

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“…Given the serious impact of the unusual heat waves on natural ecosystems and human society, it is especially necessary to project its future risk. Many studies have demonstrated that the frequency, duration, intensity, and associated exposure of hot extremes were projected to increase at both global and continental scales under climate warming (IPCC, 2021; Ma et al., 2020; Ma & Yuan, 2021a, 2021b; Perkins et al., 2012; Rohini et al., 2019; Sun et al., 2014; Wang, Chen, et al., 2020). However, when such historical rare heat waves would emerge as normal and how many land areas and population would normally witness such unusual events remain unknown.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

When Will the Unprecedented 2022 Summer Heat Waves in Yangtze River Basin Become Normal in a Warming Climate?

Yuan

2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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Yangtze River basin (YZB) experienced record‐breaking heat in the summer of 2022. Here, we focused on daytime‐nighttime compound heat waves, and used the magnitude index that considers both duration and intensity to investigate the risk of the 2022 extreme heat. The magnitude of heatwaves in 2022 was much larger than the historical average level, which was estimated as a 1‐in‐64‐year event over 1979–2014 climate. Without mitigation efforts (SSP585), the record‐breaking heat would emerge as normal during 2050s, and would affect ∼70% of land and projected population in the basin before global mean temperature change reaches 3°C. Such an emergence could be progressively delayed and impacts could be reduced under lower warming levels. The affected area would be 60% lesser at 2°C warming, and the emergence could be avoided by limiting warming to 1.5°C. Our results call for urgent mitigation efforts for reducing the risk of compound heat extremes.

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“…The challenge is identifying which changes in the temperature behavior are related to local factors and which are the result of regional or global processes. Processes that can cause local changes in long‐term temperature records include urbanization or construction near a recording station, which generally cause recorded temperatures to be higher (Fujibe & Ishihara, 2010; Jiang et al, 2021; Jones et al, 2008; Ma & Yuan, 2021; Oke, 1973; Parker, 2010; Wang et al, 2012). These impacts are often called an urban heat island (UHI), although similar local impacts can be caused by other changes to the local environment such as agricultural practices, instrument changes, or changes to the measurement station itself.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Bayesian change point modeling approach to identify local temperature changes related to urbanization

Berrett

Gurney²,

Arthur

et al. 2023

Environmetrics

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Changes to the environment surrounding a temperature measuring station can cause local changes to the recorded temperature that deviate from regional temperature behavior. This phenomenon-often caused by construction or urbanization-occurs at a local level. If these local changes are assumed to represent regional or global processes it can have significant impacts on historical data analyses. These changes or deviations are generally gradual, but can be abrupt, and arise as construction or other environmental changes occur near a recording station. We propose a methodology to examine if changes in temperature behavior at a point in time exist at a local level at various locations in a region assuming that regional or global processes are correlated among nearby stations. Specifically, we propose a Bayesian change point model for spatio-temporally dependent data where we select the number of change points at each location using a "forward" selection process using deviance information criterion. We then fit the selected version of the model and examine the linear slopes across time to quantify the local changes in long-term temperature behavior. We show the utility of this model and method using both synthetic data and observed temperature measurements from eight stations in Utah consisting of daily temperature data for 60 years.

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More Persistent Summer Compound Hot Extremes Caused by Global Urbanization

Cited by 28 publications

References 60 publications

Urbanization Amplified Asymmetrical Changes of Rainfall and Exacerbated Drought: Analysis Over Five Urban Agglomerations in the Yangtze River Basin, China

Urbanization Amplified Asymmetrical Changes of Rainfall and Exacerbated Drought: Analysis Over Five Urban Agglomerations in the Yangtze River Basin, China

When Will the Unprecedented 2022 Summer Heat Waves in Yangtze River Basin Become Normal in a Warming Climate?

A Bayesian change point modeling approach to identify local temperature changes related to urbanization

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