More Coffee, Less Crime? The Relationship between Gentrification and Neighborhood Crime Rates in Chicago, 1991 to 2005

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between gentrification and neighborhood crime rates by measuring the growth and geographic spread of one of gentrification's most prominent symbols: coffee shops. The annual counts of neighborhood coffee shops provide an on-the-ground measure of a particular form of economic development and changing consumption patterns that tap into central theoretical frames within the gentrification literature. Our analysis augments commonly used Census variables with the annual number of coffee shops in a neighborhood to assess the influence of gentrification on three-year homicide and street robbery counts in Chicago. Longitudinal Poisson regression models with neighborhood fixed effects reveal that gentrification is a racialized process, in which the effect of gentrification on crime is different for White gentrifying neighborhoods than for Black gentrifying neighborhoods. An increasing number of coffee shops in a neighborhood is associated with declining homicide rates for White, Hispanic, and Black neighborhoods; however, an increasing number of coffee shops is associated with increasing street robberies in Black gentrifying neighborhoods.

The Spatial Dimensions of Gentrification and the Consequences for Neighborhood Crime

“…Existing literature has found mixed evidence for the effect of gentrification on crime (e.g., Atkinson 2000; Kreager, et al 2011;O'Sullivan 2004;Papachristos, et al 2011;Taylor and Covington 1988). Though these studies advance what is known about socioeconomic improvement and gentrification in communities many do not account for spatial components of gentrification.…”

The Dynamics of Neighborhood Structural Conditions: The Effects of Concentrated Disadvantage on Homicide over Time and Space

“…Similarly, both positive (e.g., decreased disadvantage) and negative change were linked to higher levels of violence in Baltimore (Covington and Taylor 1989;Taylor and Covington 1988). On its face, neighborhood revitalization/gentrification is beneficial, leading to improved conditions like lower disadvantage and less crime (though these benefits may be race-specific; see Papachristos et al 2011). For example, Seattle census tracts which gentrified in the 1990s saw reductions in crime relative to nongentrifying tracts as theoretically expected (Kreager et al 2011).…”

A spatial analysis of the relationship between violent neighborhood crime rates and alternative gentrification indicators in Louisville, KY (2010-2016).

“…Gentrification has been linked to changes in local crime patterns, but the research itself is contradictory (Atkinson 2004). The few empirical tests on the relationship between gentrification and crime have found inconsistent findings (Papachristos et al 2011). For example, Papachristos et al (2011) found that gentrification with increased amenities, such as coffee shops, are related to the decline in homicides and robberies in Chicago neighborhoods.…”

“…The few empirical tests on the relationship between gentrification and crime have found inconsistent findings (Papachristos et al 2011). For example, Papachristos et al (2011) found that gentrification with increased amenities, such as coffee shops, are related to the decline in homicides and robberies in Chicago neighborhoods. Proponents of gentrification widely claim that reductions in neighborhood crime rates are a benefit of gentrification at the neighborhood and even city level (Papachristos et al 2011).…”

“…For example, Papachristos et al (2011) found that gentrification with increased amenities, such as coffee shops, are related to the decline in homicides and robberies in Chicago neighborhoods. Proponents of gentrification widely claim that reductions in neighborhood crime rates are a benefit of gentrification at the neighborhood and even city level (Papachristos et al 2011). However, other studies have suggested that gentrification can increase crime (Covington and Taylor 1989;Lee 2010;Van Wilsem and De Graff 2006).…”