Monthly, seasonal and annual temperature reconstructions for Central Europe derived from documentary evidence and instrumental records since AD 1500

Abstract

Monthly temperature series for Central Europe back to AD 1500 are developed from documentary index series from Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic (1500-1854) and 11 instrumental temperature records . Documentary evidence from the Low Countries, the Carpathian Basin and Poland are used for cross-checking for earlier centuries. The instrumental station records are corrected for inhomogeneities, including insufficient radiation protection of early thermometers and the urban heat island effect. For overlapping period (1760-1854), the documentary data series correlate with instrumental temperatures, most strongly in winter (86% explained variance in January) and least in autumn (56% in September). For annual average temperatures, 81% of the variance is explained. Verification statistics indicate high reconstruction skill for most months and seasons. The last 20 years (since 1988) stand out as very likely the warmest 20-year period, accounting for the calibration uncertainty and decreases in proxy data quality before the calibration period. The new reconstruction displays a previously unobserved P. Dobrovolný (B) · R. Brázdil · M. Halíčková · J. Macková Climatic Change (2010) 101:69-107 long-term decrease in DJF, MAM and JJA temperature variability over last five centuries. Compiled monthly, seasonal and annual series can be used to improve the robustness of gridded large-scale European temperature reconstructions and possible impact studies. Further improvement of the reconstruction would be achieved if documentary data from other European countries are further developed.

Extreme grape harvest data of Austria, Switzerland and France from A.D. 1523 to 2007 compared to corresponding instrumental/reconstructed temperature data and various documentary sources

“…The monthly Central European temperature (CEuT, 1500(CEuT, -2007 reconstruction, developed by Dobrovolný et al (2010) from documentary index series from Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic (1500-1854) and 11 instrumental temperature records , was used for the pre-instrumental period. "historical" pre-instrumental period (1523-1774) First of all, we searched for extreme values in the time series of grape harvest in the pre-instrumental period 1523-1774 with reference to the long-term mean 1775-1879 in the case of the "historical" Klosterneuburg, Burgundy and Swiss Plateau data (see Table 1).…”

“…Human beings are prone to overestimate current or recent weather extremes and to relativize those which date further back in time. Besides, the lifespan of man is much too short to correctly assess the significance of all weather extremes experienced Dobrovolný et al 2010). Furthermore, perceptions alter in the course of time (e.g.…”

Climatic effects and impacts of the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in the Czech Lands

“…Czech Lands: series of mean areal temperatures (1800-2010) and mean areal precipitation (1804-2010) calculated from 10 homogenised temperature series and 14 homogenised precipitation series over the Czech Lands (for data and details of calculation, see Brázdil et al, 2012a, b) iv. Žitenice (north-western Bohemia): homogenised series of temperatures (1801-1829) measured by parish priest František Jindřich Jakub Kreybich at Žitenice (measurements started in 1787 but incomplete before 1801), worked up by v. Central Europe: reconstructed temperature series (AD 1500-2007), consisting of temperatures derived from documentary-based temperature indices for Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Lands up to 1759 and homogenised temperature series of 11 secular meteorological stations located in these three countries and Austria from 1760 onwards (Dobrovolný et al, 2010).…”

“…However, these findings are not confirmed by the temperature series used in this study. In central European temperature series based on documentary and instrumental records (Dobrovolný et al, 2010), the 1810s summer months were the third-coldest after the 1690s and 1910s (in the 1500-2007 period). In the Czech Lands, the series from Brno was fourth-coldest (1800-2010) and those from Prague-Klementinum and mean Czech areal series the fifth-coldest ( Stenchikov et al, 2009).…”

“…Data used in this paper are available as follows: temperature and precipitation series for Prague-Klementinum, Brno and the Czech Lands - Brázdil et al (2012a), Appendix; Central European temperature series -https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ cdo/f?p=519:1:0::::P1_study_id:9970 (Dobrovolný et al, 2010); temperature series Žitenice -Brázdil et al (2007); grain prices data -Schebek (1873) for Prague, Albert (1964) for Moravia; documentary data of weather and related phenomena -references and archival sources quoted in the article. -(S5) Státní okresní archiv Blansko: fond Archiv města Boskovice, inv.č.…”