Monte Carlo Reliability Simulation of Underground Mining Drilling Rig

Al-Chalabi, Hussan; Hoseinie, Seyed Hadi; Lundberg, Jan

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-23597-4_46

Cited by 9 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Therefore, the proposed approach consists of examining the trend values of pluviometric data over a given period and identifying tendencies of global rainfall increase or decrease over such a period and, when appropriate, to analyze the trends locally. The Laplace test is commonly utilized in the literature to identify trends in different situations, such as: modeling software failures(Sukhwani et al, 2016;Yang et al, 2018), identifying trends in computer security vulnerabilities(Miani et al, 2015), and performing reliability analysis in engineering projects(Al-Chalabi et al, 2016;Chrun, 2011).…”

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confidence: 99%

Analysis of Daily Rainfall in São Carlos/SP, Brazil over 1979-2017 Using Laplace Trend Test

Sanches¹,

Santos²,

Miani³

et al. 2020

GEP

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Rainfall expresses one of the most complex climate factors in Southeastern Brazil. Understanding the dynamics and temporal trends of rainfall represents a significant challenge due to regional and even global mechanisms, such as FS (Frontal Systems) and the SACZ (South Atlantic Convergence Zone), and the interaction with the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The present study aimed at analyzing the pluviometric tendencies in São Carlos/SP, in the countryside of São Paulo State. Laplace trend test was used to comprehend the temporal evolution of daily rainfall in the region in the historical series 1979-2017, in seven pluviometric stations (climatological or surface stations). Significant fluctuations in interannual trends and between seasons were observed. However, it was noted that the beginning of the 1980s showed positive trends, whereas, as of the year 2000, most of the stations demonstrated negative trends, indicating a reduction in daily rainfall volume due to the great tropical climatic variability of Brazil. Emphasis should also be given to the regional and local effects, such as elevation and urbanization, respectively, which corroborate such differences among the analyzed stations. This methodology is of considerable value for the observation of pluviometric trends, and future studies can validate such a tool in climatological studies.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Daily Rainfall in São Carlos/SP, Brazil over 1979-2017 Using Laplace Trend Test

Sanches¹,

Santos²,

Miani³

et al. 2020

GEP

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The reliability expressions given above are used to determine the reliability of a system or an item for which the time to failure is characterized by statistical distributions, such as exponential, normal, or Weibull, if the system behaves ''as good as new'' after the repair. 16 The failure process is called the renewal process. This basic model is called the Homogenous Poisson Process (HPP).…”

Section: Reliability Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This basic model is called the Homogenous Poisson Process (HPP). 16 The reliability function for three-Parameter Weibull distribution is given by Equation (4), 5 where the three defining parameters of Weibull distribution are the shape parameter (b), also known as the Weibull slope, the scale parameter (h), and the location parameter (g), also known as the shift parameter. These systems are known as independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.)…”

Section: Reliability Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In our research, we linked production scheduling, which focuses on the quantity of material to be extracted for a given set of equipment. Furthermore, Al-Chalabi et al 16 conducted a study for an underground mine drilling rig to build a process to simulate the reliability of repairable complex systems based on historical data by ordinary Monte Carlo simulation. In their research, the previous failures do not affect future events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reliability-based performance analysis of mining drilling operations through Markov chain Monte Carlo and mean reverting process simulations

Uğurlu

Kumral

2020

SIMULATION

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In recent years, commodity prices have swiftly decreased, narrowing the profit margin for many mining operations and forcing them to find effective cost management strategies to respond to low prices. Given that equipment is one of the most significant assets of a mining company, efficient equipment utilization has strong potential to reduce costs. This paper focuses on the relationship between the number of available drilling machines based on reliability analysis and the number of holes to be created on a bench of an open pit mining operation. Since equipment availability is random in nature, a range of holes to be drilled corresponding to a specified probability level was determined. To assess the performance of the proposed approach, a case study was carried out using two stochastic modeling techniques. Evolutions of reliabilities of 10 rotary drilling machines over a specific time were simulated by Markov chain Monte Carlo and mean reverting processes, using historical data. Multiple simulations were then used for risk quantification. Results show that the proposed approach can be used as a tool to assist production scheduling and assess the associated risk.

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“…Em um determinado campo amostral, ao estimar a média amostral, é comum usar o intervalo de confiança com um nível de significância (1%, 5%, 10%) ou o p-value e compará-lo com o nível de significância, rejeitando-se ou não a hipótese nula (BELARDINELLI et al, 1999;NEWCOMBE, 1998 Para tanto, o teste consiste em examinar os valores de tendência dos dados pluviométricos em um determinado período e identificar as tendências de aumento ou diminuição da precipitação global ao longo desse período e, quando apropriado, analisar as tendências localmente. O teste de Laplace é comumente utilizado na literatura para identificar tendências em diferentes situações, tais como: falhas de software de modelagem (SUKHWANI et al, 2016;YANG, 2018), identificando tendências em vulnerabilidades de segurança computacional (MIANI et al, 2015), e realizando análise de confiabilidade em projetos de engenharia (AL-CHALABI et al, 2016;CHRUN, 2011). O cálculo das tendências foi feito por meio de planilhas e da equação (com formatações condicionais) junto ao software Excel e, feito isso, foram construídos gráficos de séries temporais para cada estação, com seus respectivos valores globais e locais, bem como os valores referenciais (+2 e -2), por meio do software Minitab.…”

Section: Utilização Dos Intervalos De Confiança -Distribuição Normalunclassified

Análise das chuvas diárias na região de São Carlos/SP por meio de índices climáticos e das tendências pluviométricas

Sanches¹

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Rainfall shows the heterogeneity of tropical climatology. Temporal and spatial behavior is highly relevant to verify the impact on urban and rural dynamics and strategic planning. The inter-annual course in daily episodes is the biggest challenge in that regard. The objective of this study was to analyze daily rainfall in the São Carlos/SP region, understand its temporal and spatial evolution, as well as to evaluate possible trends for this, which are part of tropical (seasonally rainy/dry) dynamics. A total of 39 years of daily rainfall data were analyzed in 7 pluviometric stations, with at least 95% of the data consistent using Climatic indexes (RClimdex script), and the Laplace trend factor to analyze temporal and trend data. It was observed that the values of the indexes fluctuate between the stations. These are associated with the phenomena of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and SFs (Frontal Systems), which regulates the climate in the southeast of South America. Also, the south of the studied area presents a higher rainfall concentration, due to the geomorphological (and even occupation) aspects, as well as the increase of extreme episodes of daily rains. Therefore, daily rains tend to concentrate, since annual volumes decrease or increase (cyclically), but the rainfall (mm) is more intense on rainy days, in addition to the increase in the tendency of the days with extreme rains. Future studies that broaden the area of study and possible correlations may reaffirm such results, as verified in previous studies.

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Monte Carlo Reliability Simulation of Underground Mining Drilling Rig

Cited by 9 publications

References 15 publications

Analysis of Daily Rainfall in São Carlos/SP, Brazil over 1979-2017 Using Laplace Trend Test

Analysis of Daily Rainfall in São Carlos/SP, Brazil over 1979-2017 Using Laplace Trend Test

Reliability-based performance analysis of mining drilling operations through Markov chain Monte Carlo and mean reverting process simulations

Análise das chuvas diárias na região de São Carlos/SP por meio de índices climáticos e das tendências pluviométricas

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Monte Carlo Reliability Simulation of Underground Mining Drilling Rig

Cited by 9 publications

References 15 publications

Analysis of Daily Rainfall in S&#227;o Carlos/SP, Brazil over 1979-2017 Using Laplace Trend Test

Analysis of Daily Rainfall in S&#227;o Carlos/SP, Brazil over 1979-2017 Using Laplace Trend Test

Reliability-based performance analysis of mining drilling operations through Markov chain Monte Carlo and mean reverting process simulations

Análise das chuvas diárias na região de São Carlos/SP por meio de índices climáticos e das tendências pluviométricas

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Analysis of Daily Rainfall in São Carlos/SP, Brazil over 1979-2017 Using Laplace Trend Test

Analysis of Daily Rainfall in São Carlos/SP, Brazil over 1979-2017 Using Laplace Trend Test