Monte Carlo–Based Approach to Estimating Fragility Curves of Floating Docks for Small Craft Marinas

Keen, Adam; Lynett, Patrick; Eskijian, Martin; Ayça, Aykut; Wilson, R. I.

doi:10.1061/(asce)ww.1943-5460.0000385

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Based on their results, the threshold water level and flow velocity values for the complete destruction of small boats of less than 5 t are 2 m and 1 m s −1 , respectively. Keen et al (2017) developed fragility functions for structural components in small craft harbors based on actual damage caused by the 2011 tsunami on the US west coast. The 2016 Fukushima tsunami caused no inland damage but some damage to aquaculture rafts and fishing boats in Sendai Bay (Suppasri et al, 2017).…”

Section: Review Of Previous Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing fragility functions for aquaculture rafts and eelgrass in the case of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami

Suppasri

Fukui

Yamashita

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Since the two devastating tsunamis in 2004 (Indian Ocean) and 2011 (Great East Japan), new findings have emerged on the relationship between tsunami characteristics and damage in terms of fragility functions. Human loss and damage to buildings and infrastructures are the primary target of recovery and reconstruction; thus, such relationships for offshore properties and marine ecosystems remain unclear. To overcome this lack of knowledge, this study used the available data from two possible target areas (Mangokuura Lake and Matsushima Bay) from the 2011 Japan tsunami. This study has three main components: (1) reproduction of the 2011 tsunami, (2) damage investigation, and (3) fragility function development. First, the source models of the 2011 tsunami were verified and adjusted to reproduce the tsunami characteristics in the target areas. Second, the damage ratio (complete damage) of the aquaculture raft and eelgrass was investigated using satellite images taken before and after the 2011 tsunami through visual inspection and binarization. Third, the tsunami fragility functions were developed using the relationship between the simulated tsunami characteristics and the estimated damage ratio. Based on the statistical analysis results, fragility functions were developed for Mangokuura Lake, and the flow velocity was the main contributor to the damage instead of the wave amplitude. For example, the damage ratio above 0.9 was found to be equal to the maximum flow velocities of 1.3 m s −1 (aquaculture raft) and 3.0 m s −1 (eelgrass). This finding is consistent with the previously proposed damage criterion of 1 m s −1 for the aquaculture raft. This study is the first step in the development of damage assessment and planning for marine products and environmental factors to mitigate the effects of future tsunamis.

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Section: Review Of Previous Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing fragility functions for aquaculture rafts and eelgrass in the case of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami

Suppasri

Fukui

Yamashita

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…For small craft harbors, tsunamis pose a risk in both surface elevation and current speed. Keen et al (2017) developed fragility curves for damage from tsunami currents which can be included in this framework. For surface elevation, the vulnerability is related to the floating docks floating off their piles during the event.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Design Life Based Approach to Multi-Hazard Risk Analysis

Keen¹,

Lynett

2018

Int. Conf. Coastal. Eng.

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Small craft harbors are important facets to many coastal communities providing a transition from land to ocean. Because of the damage resulting from the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japanese tele-tsunamis, the tsunami risk to the small craft harbors in California has become an important concern. However, tsunamis represent only one of many hazards a harbor is likely to see in California. Other natural hazards including wave attack, wind events, storm surge and sea level rise all can damage a harbor but are not typically addressed collectively in traditional risk studies. Existing approaches to assess small craft harbor vulnerably typically look at single events assigning likely damage levels to each event. However, a harbor will likely experience damage from several different types of hazards over its service life with each event contributing proportionally to the total damage state. The approach presented here will consider the how the damage from many different natural phenomena is likely to be distributed during a harbors service life and how the cumulative effect of the events could contribute to failure potential of components within the harbor.

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“…Based on criteria for the recovery process developed by the Japan Fisheries Agency (2010) (4) minor damage (less than 30 % physical damage). Because of the limitations encountered when using satellite images, only the complete-damage (washed away) level could be investigated using the satellite images taken before and after the tsunami, similar to other previous studies related to buildings (Koshimura et al, 2009;. In this study, only the long-line type of aquaculture raft (Fig.…”

Section: Damage Investigation Of the Aquaculture Raftsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Review Of Previous Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reply to reviewer no.2

Suppasri¹

2017

Preprint

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Since the two devastating tsunamis in 2004 (Indian Ocean) and 2011 (Great East Japan), new findings have emerged on the relationship between tsunami characteristics and damage in terms of fragility functions. Human loss and damage to buildings and infrastructures are the primary target of recovery and reconstruction; thus, such relationships for offshore properties and marine ecosystems remain unclear. To overcome this lack of knowledge, this study used the available data from two possible target areas (Mangokuura Lake and Matsushima Bay) from the 2011 Japan tsunami. This study has three main components: (1) reproduction of the 2011 tsunami, (2) damage investigation, and (3) fragility function development. First, the source models of the 2011 tsunami were verified and adjusted to reproduce the tsunami characteristics in the target areas. Second, the damage ratio (complete damage) of the aquaculture raft and eelgrass was investigated using satellite images taken before and after the 2011 tsunami through visual inspection and binarization. Third, the tsunami fragility functions were developed using the relationship between the simulated tsunami characteristics and the estimated damage ratio. Based on the statistical analysis results, fragility functions were developed for Mangokuura Lake, and the flow velocity was the main contributor to the damage instead of the wave amplitude. For example, the damage ratio above 0.9 was found to be equal to the maximum flow velocities of 1.3 m s −1 (aquaculture raft) and 3.0 m s −1 (eelgrass). This finding is consistent with the previously proposed damage criterion of 1 m s −1 for the aquaculture raft. This study is the first step in the development of damage assessment and planning for marine products and environmental factors to mitigate the effects of future tsunamis.

show abstract

Monte Carlo–Based Approach to Estimating Fragility Curves of Floating Docks for Small Craft Marinas

Cited by 10 publications

References 12 publications

Developing fragility functions for aquaculture rafts and eelgrass in the case of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami

Developing fragility functions for aquaculture rafts and eelgrass in the case of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami

A Design Life Based Approach to Multi-Hazard Risk Analysis

Reply to reviewer no.2

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