Monsoon Variability in the Himalayas under the Condition of Global Waming

Abstract

Reconstructed 300-year annual net accumulation (water equivalent) from the core, with a good correlation to Indian monsoon, reflects a major precipitation trend in the central Himalayas. The accumulation trend, separated from the time series, shows a strong negative correlation to Northern Hemisphere temperature. Generally, as northern hemisphere temperature increases 0.1 C, the accumulation decreases about 80 mm, reflecting monsoon rainfall in the central Himalayas has decreased over the past decades in the condition of global warming.

δ 18O record and temperature change over the past 100 years in ice cores on the Tibetan Plateau

“…Temperature changes of the past 100 years over a wider region have also been studied in eastern China [4] . Since the 1980s, scientists have been engaged in identifying important features of regional climate changes at different sites and with different time scales [5][6][7][8][9][10][11] . They have also concentrated the study of temperature changes over the past 100 years on ice core records at a few specific sites, but have missed some crucial regions such as the Tibetan Plateau, which remains relatively unstudied by either meteorological or ice core data due to its difficult access.…”

Monthly Precipitation Trend Analysis by Applying Nonparametric Mann- Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho (SR) Tests In Dongting Lake, China: 1961-2012

“…These variations in precipitation trends may lead Pakistan towards more water related disasters such as droughts and floods in the near future. [7] Proposed possible causes of the changing precipitation trends, such as global climate shifts [8], dwindling global monsoon circulation [9], decline in forest cover, [10,11] land use changes and practices (e.g., irrigated agriculture) [11], and increasing aerosols from anthropogenic activities [12].…”

“…Scientists have found that the most common nonparametric tests are the Mann-Kendall [3,4], Spearman's rho [5,6] and Theil Sen's [7,8] tests for research with time series trends. The Mann-Kendall test is the most common one used by researchers in studying hydrologic time series trends [9][10][11][12]; less common, Theil Sen's and Spearman's rho are used to detect magnitude and monotonic trends in hydrometeorological data respectively [13]. In several researches, Spearman's rho is used as the combination with the Mann-Kendall test for evaluation purposes [14][15][16][17].…”

Temporal Variability of Climatic Parameters of Yamuna River Basin: Spatial Analysis of Persistence, Trend and Periodicity

“…Beside these, a comprehensive review of precipitation changes was also carried out at global and regional level, and a decreasing precipitation trends was identified in Russia, Kazakhstan, China and Thailand with global increase in variance [14]. Probable causes of change in rainfall may be due to: (a) global climate shift [15] or weakening global monsoon circulation [16][17][18]; (b) reduction in forest cover [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28] and change in land use including introduction of irrigated agriculture [29][30][31][32]; and (c) increasing aerosol due to anthropogenic activities [33][34][35][36].…”

“…Chase et al [58] indicated a consistent reduction in intensity of all tropical monsoon systems since 1950. A decrease in monsoon precipitation in the central Himalayas (Tibet, China) was identified from early 1920s to the present [17]. However, a substantial global climate shift has been reported in the late 1960s affecting South AmericaAfrica [59].…”