Abstract. In light of the recent climate warming, monitoring of lake ice in
Arctic and subarctic regions is becoming increasingly important. Many
shallow Arctic lakes and ponds of thermokarst origin freeze to the bed in the
winter months, maintaining the underlying permafrost in its frozen state.
However, as air temperatures rise and precipitation increases, fewer lakes
are expected to develop bedfast ice. In this work, we propose a novel
temporal deep-learning approach to lake ice regime mapping from synthetic
aperture radar (SAR) and employ it to study lake ice dynamics in the Old
Crow Flats (OCF), Yukon, Canada, over the 1992/1993 to 2020/2021 period. We
utilized a combination of Sentinel-1, ERS-1 and ERS-2, and RADARSAT-1 to create
an extensive annotated dataset of SAR time series labeled as either bedfast
ice, floating ice, or land, which was used to train a temporal convolutional neural
network (TempCNN). The trained TempCNN, in turn, allowed us to automatically
map lake ice regimes. The classified maps aligned well with the available
field measurements and ice thickness simulations obtained with a
thermodynamic lake ice model. Reaching a mean overall classification
accuracy of 95 %, the TempCNN was determined to be suitable for automated
lake ice regime classification. The fraction of bedfast ice in the OCF
increased by 11 % over the 29-year period of analysis. Findings suggest
that the OCF lake ice dynamics are dominated by lake drainage events, brought
on by thermokarst processes accelerated by climate warming, and fluctuations in water level and winter snowfall. Catastrophic drainage and
lowered water levels cause surface water area and lake depth to decrease and
lake ice to often transition from floating to bedfast ice, while a reduction
in snowfall allows for the growth of thicker ice. The proposed lake ice
regime mapping approach allowed us to assess the combined impacts of warming,
drainage, and changing precipitation patterns on transitions between bedfast
and floating-ice regimes, which is crucial to understanding evolving
permafrost dynamics beneath shallow lakes and drained basins in thermokarst
lowlands such as the OCF.