Monitoring climate change, drought conditions and wheat production in Eurasia: the case study of Kazakhstan

Abstract

Wheat is an important global food security commodity. Kazakhstan is currently a producer and exporter of high-quality wheat to global markets. The most important wheat-growing regions, which lie in the northern part of Kazakhstan, are based on spring-sown rain-fed cultivation and are susceptible to climate change and drought. Using the monthly surface air temperature and precipitation data from 1950 to 2020 from 110 meteorological stations over Kazakhstan and in addition wheat cultivation data, the research aims to analyze climate change, drought occurrence, and wheat cultivation trends in Kazakhstan in recent 70 years and investigate relationships between wheat productivity and drought. The linear method and two drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) and in addition, Pearson's correlation coefficient have been used to characterise the climate change trends and vulnerability of agriculture in Kazakhstan to drought. The geographic information system (GIS) was applied to display climate change, drought, and wheat referenced information. The research has shown that the 70-year (1950–2020) linear rates of annual mean surface temperature in Kazakhstan have significantly increased (on average 0.31 °C per decade) with the precipitation trends are not obvious and fluctuated trends of drought. The wheat yield demonstrates strong internal variability and wheat yields were significantly correlated with 3-month June and July drought indices over the period of 1950–2020. The results underline the potential susceptibility of wheat yields in Kazakhstan to any future reductions in precipitation and increase in drought occurrence and intensity.

Molecular and Physiological Evaluation of Bread Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) Genotypes for Stay Green under Drought Stress

“…Wheat yield and quality are highly impacted by multiple factors including cultivar types and abiotic stresses such as high temperature, drought stress etc., [ 2 , 3 , 4 ]. About 37% of the semiarid area belongs to developing countries, where available moisture is primarily used for wheat cultivation [ 5 ]. Drought or water stress can be defined as the shortage of adequate moisture needed for normal growth of a plant growth and complete life cycle [ 6 ].…”

The Impact of Oil Prices on the Macroeconomic Indicators of Kazakhstan and the Consequences for the Formation of Social Policy

“…First, high oil prices directly expand the investment opportunities of the budget and backbone Kazakhstani companies operating in the oil and gas sector (Bernardini, 2008;Dutta et al, 2020). Secondly, if oil price expectations in the future are largely formed on the basis of the current price level, then with an increase in oil prices, forecast estimates of the prospects for generating operating cash flows from projects that are not only implemented in the energy and raw materials sector and are oriented to external demand, but also focused on meeting domestic demand due to the expected growth in the purchasing power of the population and the easing of financial restrictions on business and the public sector (Joffé et al, 2009;Sadorsky, 2014;Berntsen et al, 2018;Karatayev et al, 2022). Thirdly, due to the fact that the main channel for the formation of the monetary base in the economy is the replenishment of gold and foreign exchange reserves by buying out part of the foreign exchange earnings of exporters, high oil prices are accompanied by an easing of monetary policy, i.e., an increase in the growth rate of the money supply and lower interest rates, which has a positive effect on investment activity (Kalyuzhnova, 2011;Nurseiit et al, 2019).…”

Prevention of Desertification and Land Degradation using Black Saxaul in Arid Conditions

“…The characteristic features of the climate of the Zhambyl region are significant aridity and continentality (Karatayev et al, 2022). This is due to the location of the territory of the region within the Eurasian continent, the remoteness from the oceans, and the peculiarity of atmospheric circulation, which contributes to the frequent formation of clear or lowcloud weather, as well as the southern position, which provides a large influx of solar heat.…”