Modulation of Arctic Sea Ice Loss by Atmospheric Teleconnections from Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

Castruccio, Frédéric; Ruprich‐Robert, Yohan; Yeager, Stephen; Danabasoglu, Gökhan; Msadek, Rym; Delworth, T. L.

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-18-0307.1

Cited by 39 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 86 publications

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“…The evolution of western Arctic sea ice also shows significant coherence with low-frequency SST variabilities such as the PDO 37 ( r = 0.29, p < 0.1) and the AMV 24 ( r = −0.72, p < 0.01). The AMV, which exhibits the strongest correlation, has previously been shown to drive multidecadal fluctuations in Arctic sea ice 34 , 39 . The recent trends in western Arctic sea ice may also be associated with the transition of AMV from a negative phase to a positive phase in the mid-1990s.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 90%

Acceleration of western Arctic sea ice loss linked to the Pacific North American pattern

et al. 2021

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Recent rapid Arctic sea-ice reduction has been well documented in observations, reconstructions and model simulations. However, the rate of sea ice loss is highly variable in both time and space. The western Arctic has seen the fastest sea-ice decline, with substantial interannual and decadal variability, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear. Here we demonstrate, through both observations and model simulations, that the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern is an important driver of western Arctic sea-ice variability, accounting for more than 25% of the interannual variance. Our results suggest that the recent persistent positive PNA pattern has led to increased heat and moisture fluxes from local processes and from advection of North Pacific airmasses into the western Arctic. These changes have increased lower-tropospheric temperature, humidity and downwelling longwave radiation in the western Arctic, accelerating sea-ice decline. Our results indicate that the PNA pattern is important for projections of Arctic climate changes, and that greenhouse warming and the resultant persistent positive PNA trend is likely to increase Arctic sea-ice loss.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 90%

Acceleration of western Arctic sea ice loss linked to the Pacific North American pattern

et al. 2021

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“…S.8) and a reduction of sea-ice cover during positive AMV years (Fig. S.9) over the shelf [46][47][48] .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 95%

The impact of the AMV on Eurasian summer hydrological cycle

Nicolì

Bellucci

Iovino

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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Impact studies of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) on the climate system are severely limited by the lack of sufficiently long observational records. Relying on a model-based approach is therefore mandatory to overcome this limitation. Here, a novel experimental setup, designed in the framework of the CMIP6-endorsed Decadal Climate Prediction Project, is applied to the CMCC climate model to analyse the remote climate impact of the AMV on the Northern Eurasian continent. Model results show that, during Boreal summer, an enhanced warming associated to a positive phase of the AMV, induces a hemispheric-scale wave-train response in the atmospheric circulation, affecting vast portions of Northern Eurasia. The overall AMV-induced response consists in an upper-tropospheric anomalous flows leading to a rainfall increase over Scandinavia and Siberia and to an intensified river runoff by the major Siberian rivers. A strengthening of Eurasian shelves' stratification, broadly consistent with the anomalous river discharge, is found in the proximity of the river mouths during positive-AMV years. Considering that Siberian rivers (Ob', Yenisei and Lena) account for almost half of the Arctic freshwater input provided by terrestrial sources, the implications of these findings for decadal variability and predictability of the Arctic environment are also discussed. The variability of Northern Eurasian climate has direct implications for the hydrological cycle of the Arctic 1,2. Almost 10% of the total freshwater input into the Arctic Ocean derives from terrestrial sources, influencing seaice formation and sea surface salinity at different timescales 3,4. High-latitude precipitation is one of the drivers of the Arctic rivers discharge, even if the direct link between rainfall and river streamflow is still unclear 5,6 , due to the concurrence of several additional factors which may have implications for the freshwater inflow: snowmelt, permafrost degradation, reservoir and dam regulation, fire frequency and human activities 7. However, understanding the origins of the regional scale, decadal variability of precipitation remains a challenging issue, which may disclose some degree of predictability, potentially improving the quality of climate predictions. Several studies have focused on the winter period, invoking a role for the Siberian High, Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode and sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic and Pacific Ocean 8-12. Berg et al. 13 claim that, at daily timescale, increasing surface temperature, the Clausius-Clapeyron law prevails in the modulation of the large-scale precipitation, whereas moisture transport and availability are the keys to explain summer rainfall. Different physical processes require different approaches for winter and summer analysis, given also the strong climate seasonality of the high-latitude regions 5,14. On the interannual timescale, summer precipitation is still driven by the convergence of large-scale moisture fluxes over eastern Siberia since the ev...

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“…Part of the observed changes after 2000 might be due to internal climate variability, and we cannot expect all the short‐term variations of sea ice to be simulated in the CMIP runs. Low‐frequency climate variability can affect the sea ice trends for certain periods for both the Arctic and Antarctic (Castruccio et al, 2019; Mahajan et al, 2011; Polvani & Smith, 2013; Zhang et al, 2019; Zunz et al, 2012). On the one hand, it is important to document the recent changes in sea ice as reported in this study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Sea Ice Extent in CMIP6 With Comparison to Observations and CMIP5

Shu

Wang

Song

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

116

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Both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents (SIEs) from 44 coupled models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are evaluated by comparing them with observations and CMIP5 results. The CMIP6 multimodel mean can adequately reproduce the seasonal cycles of both the Arctic and Antarctic SIE. The observed Arctic September SIE declining trend (−0.82 ± 0.18 million km 2 per decade) between 1979 and 2014 is slightly underestimated in CMIP6 models (−0.70 ± 0.06 million km 2 per decade). The observed weak but significant upward trend of the Antarctic SIE is not captured, which was an issue already in the CMIP5 phase. Compared with CMIP5 models, CMIP6 models have lower intermodel spreads in SIE mean values and trends, although their SIE biases are relatively larger. The CMIP6 models did not reproduce the new summer tendencies after 2000, including the faster decline of Arctic SIE and the larger interannual variability in Antarctic SIE.

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Modulation of Arctic Sea Ice Loss by Atmospheric Teleconnections from Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

Cited by 39 publications

References 86 publications

Acceleration of western Arctic sea ice loss linked to the Pacific North American pattern

Acceleration of western Arctic sea ice loss linked to the Pacific North American pattern

The impact of the AMV on Eurasian summer hydrological cycle

Assessment of Sea Ice Extent in CMIP6 With Comparison to Observations and CMIP5

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