Modulation by ENSO of the Relationship Between Stratospheric Sudden Warming and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation

Ma, Jin; Chen, Wen; Nath, Debashis; Lan, Xiaoqing

doi:10.1029/2020gl088894

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 50 publications

(61 reference statements)

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“…In contrast, two of these three occurred during La Nina and the third during neutral ENSO, which tends to lead to a stronger monthly mean vortex and a reduced probability of easterly winds in the full hindcast ensemble for the models considered by Garfinkel et al (2019). However, over the period considered in this study the observed relationship between ENSO and SSW was opposite, with more SSWs during La Nina (Domeisen et al, 2019), and ENSO also may modulate the impact of the MJO on SSWs (Ma et al, 2020). Favorable precursors -in particular El Nino, MJO Phase 5, and eQBO-were present before the well-predicted 1 January 2019 event as well .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 64%

Which Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Are Most Predictable?

et al. 2022

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The predictability of Northern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events is considered in 10 subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast models for 16 major SSWs that have occurred since 1998, a larger sample size than has been considered by previous works. The four factors that most succinctly distinguish those SSWs with above average predictability are a preconditioned vortex prior to the SSW, an active Madden‐Julian Oscillation with enhanced convection in the West Pacific, the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation phase with easterlies in the lower stratosphere, and the vortex morphology (displacement more predictable). Two of these factors appear to not have been considered in previous works focusing on a large sample of events. Most of these effects are not statistically significant at the 95% level due to the still relatively small sample size, though all would exceed a 90% criteria at least marginally. Combined, however, they account for 40% of the inter‐event spread in SSW predictability, thus indicating that SSWs with favorable precursors are significantly more predictable.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 64%

Which Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Are Most Predictable?

et al. 2022

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“…However, over the period considered in this study the observed relationship between ENSO and SSW was opposite, with more SSWs during La Nina (D. I. Domeisen et al, 2019), and ENSO also may modulate the impact of the MJO on SSWs (Ma et al, 2020).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 69%

Which Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events are Most Predictable?

Chwat

Garfinkel

Chen

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The predictability of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events are considered in 10 subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast models for 10 SSWs over the period 1999-2009. The 10 SSWs are divided into those with above-average predictability (in one case exceeding 20 days), below-average predictability, and average predictability. The four factors that most succinctly distinguish the composite with above average predictability are an active Madden-Julian Oscillation with enhanced convection in the West Pacific, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation phase with easterlies in the lower stratosphere, a strong SSW, and a strong pulse of wave activity in the week before the event. Other factors, such as El Nino, stratospheric preconditioning, and the morphology (split vs. displacement) are comparatively less important.

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“…Since the discovery of SSW [3], it has attracted wide attention, including its classification [1,4], mechanism [5], and its prediction by models [6,7]. A series of studies have demonstrated that several factors can influence SSW events, such as Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) [8][9][10][11][12][13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Garfinkel et al [16] further indicated that MJO phase 7 (defined by Wheeler and Hendon [17]) leads to a North Pacific low and then a weakened polar vortex, which favors the onset of SSW, while MJO phase 3 plays an opposite role. Ma et al [12] showed that the MJO-SSW relationship can be modulated by ENSO. In addition, Wang et al [18] discussed the link between the frequency of MJO phases and the interannual variability of stratospheric wave activity (SSW is a phenomenon of the extremely strong stratospheric wave activity) in the Northern Hemisphere.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship between the Intraseasonal Oscillation over Mid-High-Latitude Eurasia and the Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event in February 2018

Fan

Yang

et al. 2022

Remote Sensing

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Taking the stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) event in February 2018 as an example, the relationship between the SSW event and the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) mode over mid-high-latitude Eurasia is investigated by daily reanalysis data. First, the 2018 SSW event and mid-high-latitude ISO are reviewed. The 2018 SSW event is a typical vortex-split event defined by the NCEP-DOE dataset, and the ISO mode features a southeastward propagation. Along with the ISO propagation, temperature anomalies developed from troposphere to stratosphere in the 2018 wintertime. It is also found that a strong ISO event occurred before the onset of SSW in this wintertime. Our analysis reveals that the correlation is significant when mid-high-latitude ISO leads the 2018 SSW event by 9–13 days. Occurrence of strong ISO 9–13 days before the SSW event is found to be conducive to its onset. The diagnosis of planetary wave activity indicates that stronger ISO leads to strengthened wavenumber-2 geopotential height anomalies; then, its in-phase superposition of climatological geopotential height makes up for the upward-propagating tropospheric planetary waves, which is in favor of the onset of the 2018 SSW event. The outcome of energy conversion equations also reveals that ISO perturbation contributes to the onset of SSW. Lastly, the contribution of the vertical component of Plumb wave activity flux propagated upward from the region of mid-high-latitude ISO is estimated at approximately 69%.

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Modulation by ENSO of the Relationship Between Stratospheric Sudden Warming and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation

Cited by 10 publications

References 50 publications

Which Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Are Most Predictable?

Which Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Are Most Predictable?

Which Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events are Most Predictable?

Relationship between the Intraseasonal Oscillation over Mid-High-Latitude Eurasia and the Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event in February 2018

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